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51.
52.
E. Howard Coker Rollin H. Hotchkiss Dennis A. Johnson 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2009,45(4):815-827
Abstract: A present and future challenge for water resources engineers is to extend the useful life of our dams and reservoirs. Ongoing reservoir sedimentation in impoundments must be addressed; sedimentation in many reservoirs already limits project benefits and effective project life. Sustainability requires that incoming sediment be moved downstream past the impounding dam. We use Lewis and Clark Lake, the most downstream of the six Missouri River main stem reservoirs, to demonstrate how a reservoir in advanced stages of its project life could be converted to a sustainable system with local benefits exceeding costs by a factor of 1.5. Full consideration of benefits would further enhance project justification. The proposed strategy involves four phases that will take about 50 years to complete. Cost estimates for this potential project range from the quantitative to the plausible, but it is clear that the results justify a full engineering, environmental, and economic study of this model project. If implemented, the project will create scientific knowledge and develop technologies useful for achieving sustainability at many other reservoirs in the Mississippi River basin and beyond. 相似文献
53.
Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and
the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical
processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm
track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent
heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding
events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall.
In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution
weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed
(modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic
variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration
using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return
period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small
detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate
change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret
strategy.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
54.
吸力式桶形基础多桶组合结构承载力特性研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
海洋采油平台结构中一般采用多桶组合基础型式,然而迄今对多桶组合结构尚缺乏理论分析和实验研究。本文针对我国第一座吸力式桶形基础采油平台CB20B,基于单桶基础在复合加载模式下的承载力特性,建立了双桶、四桶组合基础的三维有限元数值计算模型,探讨了对称多桶基础结构与单桶基础结构的承载力特性之间的相互关系,阐述了不同桶间距的多桶组合结构地基破坏机制,为工程设计提供参考依据。 相似文献
55.
We develop a spectral framework for testing the hypothesis of complete spatial randomness (CSR) for a spatial point pattern. Five formal tests based on the periodogram (sample spectrum) proposed in Mugglestone (1990) are considered. A simulation study is used to evaluate and compare the power of the tests against clustered, regular and inhomogeneous alternatives to CSR. A subset of the tests is shown to be uniformly more powerful than the others against the alternatives considered. The spectral tests are also compared with three widely used space-domain tests that are based on the mean nearest-neighbor distance, the reduced second-order moment function (K-function), and a bivariate Cramér-von Mises statistic. The test based on the scaled cumulative R-spectrum is more powerful than the space-domain tests for detecting clustered alternatives to CSR, especially when the number of events is small. 相似文献
56.
Árpád Ambrus Zsuzsanna Horváth Júlia Szenczi-Cseh István J. Szabó 《Journal of environmental science and health. Part. B》2018,53(6):394-403
ABSTRACTThe calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTIproposed/IESTIcurrent and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food – pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case. 相似文献
57.
58.
微塑料一般指直径小于5 mm的微小型塑料颗粒或碎片,海洋中常见的微塑料类型主要包括聚乙烯、聚丙烯、聚苯乙烯、聚氯乙烯等。由于形状、颜色多变,分子量大,结构稳定,粒径范围与浮游植物相近,海洋中的微塑料很容易对浮游植物、浮游动物和其他海洋动物等产生影响。微塑料还可以为病毒、细菌提供附着载体,影响浮游植物分布,进入海洋生物消化道或进一步转移到组织中对机体产生毒性效应,甚至通过捕食作用沿食物链传递,对高等动物及人类健康造成威胁。此外,微塑料可以作为海水中痕量化学物质的吸附载体,对生物产生联合毒性。根据目前对微塑料的研究进展情况,未来应加强对海洋微塑料分离、鉴定技术的研发以及海洋微塑料的生物毒性效应和生物传递效应机制等问题的研究。 相似文献
59.
为检验二元联合作用藻红外测试方法的可行性,用Cu~(2+)、Fe3+、Mn~(2+)、Al3+、Cr3+、Hg~(2+)、Cd~(2+)、Pb~(2+)、Zn~(2+)进行了二元联合作用测试实验。结果显示:联合药液的参照浓度与单药液的参照浓度比为0.5:0.25的有15组二元组合,为2.0:1.0的有10组二元组合,为1.0:0.5的有11组二元组合;在9种重金属的36组二元联合作用测试结果中出现拮抗作用、相加作用、协同作用,表明联合作用类型表现出多样性;14组拮抗作用中单组的再现性为50%~100%、多组的再现性的出现率为93%、单组的重现性为67%~100%、多组的重现性的出现率为100%,21组相加作用中单组的再现性为50%~100%、多组的再现性的出现率为86%、单组的重现性为67%~100%、多组的重现性的出现率为100%,1组协同作用重现性67%;36组联合作用测试结果的再现性为50%~100%、再现性的出现率为86%,重现性为67%~100%、重现性的出现率为100%。上述分析可知,9种重金属的36种二元联合作用测试结果具有较好的多样性、再现性、重现性,表明测试条件、藻温测试方法、三指标评价法能够保证藻响应温差和藻响应药品评价结果的质量,参照浓度分析方法、联合作用评价方法能够控制联合作用分析结果的质量;藻响应的有毒有害物都存在敏感浓度,用参照浓度分析方法可分析出藻响应有毒有害物的参照浓度。因此,藻红外测试技术可以用于测试重金属、农药、有机药品、抗生素等的二元联合作用。 相似文献
60.
分析了铜和镉联合胁迫对羊角月牙藻(Selenastrum capricornutum)的影响,运用国内应用较少的新型技术——叶绿素荧光技术检测了胁迫下微藻的最大光能转化效率(Fv/Fm)受到的影响,并尝试通过膜脂过氧化损伤产物丙二醛(MDA)和其他指标在胁迫下的变化,对铜、镉联合胁迫机制进行初步探究。结果表明:(1)羊角月牙藻在铜、镉联合胁迫下生长受到抑制,表现出明显的浓度-效应关系。铜、镉的联合胁迫的相加指数为-1.63,表现为典型的拮抗作用。(2)通过叶绿素荧光技术的应用,探明Fv/Fm随毒性浓度的变化表现为浓度-效应关系,毒性浓度越大,羊角月牙藻的Fv/Fm越低,但在低毒性浓度刺激时随胁迫时间延长有回升迹象。(3)随毒性浓度的增加,羊角月牙藻的MDA增加,表现为显著的浓度-效应关系;可溶性蛋白质大体呈先升后降的趋势。(4)铜、镉联合胁迫下,MDA与羊角月牙藻生物量、Fv/Fm呈显著负相关。脂质过氧化是导致生物量下降和Fv/Fm受抑制的原因之一。(5)在微藻体内铜、镉发生拮抗作用的机制也可能与重金属的脂质过氧化作用由于拮抗受到抑制有关。 相似文献