What do significance tests really tell us about the environment?

Routine application of significance tests does not extract the maximum information from environmental data and can lead to misleading conclusions. Reasons leading to this are: a significant result can often be reached merely by collecting enough samples; a statistically significant result is not necessarily practically significant; and reports of the presence or absence of statistically significant differences for multiple tests are not comparable unless identical sample sizes are used. These problems are demonstrated by application to pH data for grazed and retired fields, and by discussion of significance tests used in recent US regulations for groundwater quality. The advantages of equivalence tests, where the tester must state the difference of practical difference, are discussed and applied to the field pH problem. We recommend that environmental managers and scientists pay more attention to statistical power and decide on what is a practical difference. Confidence intervals for the size of the differences, accompanied where necessary by equivalence tests, are the preferred means of addressing the question: “is there a difference of practical significance?”     

PRA浓度和显色温度对West—Gaeke法测定SO2的回归斜率和空白值的影响

试验研究表明，Ｗｅｓｔ－Ｇａｅｋｅ法制定大气ＳＯ２，空白试验值不仅随显色温度增高而增高，而且随ＰＲＡ浓度增高而增高。尤其，在２０±２℃时，ＰＲＡ浓度＞０．０１６％时，校准曲线斜率比方法规定值偏高；称取ＰＲＡ０．１００ｇ提纯后使用，在３０℃时，回归斜率比方法规定值偏低。本文提出了对方法的补充意见。     

基于GM(1,1)模型的铁路行车事故预测

铁路行车事故的发生具有偶然性 ,但可利用预测理论的方法加以预测。笔者简述了灰色理论中GM(1,1)预测模型的建模过程和精度检验的方法及步骤 ,在某铁路分局 1995～ 2 0 0 2年间的铁路行车事故统计的基础上 ,应用GM(1,1)预测模型预测了该铁路分局 2 0 0 4年的铁路行车事故发生趋势 ,经精度检验表明 ,模型的精度等级合格 ,其预测结果为铁路行车事故的防范和降低事故损失提供了指导和科学依据。     

STREAMBED HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY FOR RIVERS IN SOUTH‐CENTRAL NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents hydraulic conductivities of streambeds measured in three rivers in south‐central Nebraska: the Platte, Republican, and Little Blue Rivers. Unlike traditional permeameter tests in streams that determine only the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v), the extended permeameter methods used in this study can measure K in both vertical and horizontal as well as oblique directions. As a result, the anisotropy of channel sediments can be determined from streambed tests of similar sediment volumes. Sandy streambeds with occasional silt/clay layers exist in the Republican and Platte Rivers. The average K_v values range from about 15 to 47 m/day for the sandy streambed and about 1.6 m/day for the silt/clay layers. Statistical analyses indicated that the K_v values of sand and gravel in the Platte and Republican Rivers essentially have the same mean; but the K_v values from the Little Blue River have a statistically different mean. K_v is about four times smaller than the horizontal hydraulic conductivity (K_h) for the top 40 cm of sandy streambed. Measured K_h values of the sandy streambed are in the same magnitude as the K_h of the alluvial aquifer determined using pumping tests. The smaller K_v value in the whole aquifer is the result of interbedded layers of silt and clay within the sand and gravel sediments.     

EVALUATION OF A STREAM AQUIFER ANALYSIS TEST USING ANALYTICAL SOLUTIONS AND FIELD DATA1

ABSTRACT: Considerable advancements have been made in the development of analytical solutions for predicting the effects of pumping wells on adjacent streams and rivers. However, these solutions have not been sufficiently evaluated against field data. The objective of this research is to evaluate the predictive performance of recently proposed analytical solutions for unsteady stream depletion using field data collected during a stream/aquifer analysis test at the Tamarack State Wildlife Area in eastern Colorado. Two primary stream/aquifer interactions exist at the Tamarack site: (1) between the South Platte River and the alluvial aquifer and (2) between a backwater stream and the alluvial aquifer. A pumping test is performed next to the backwater stream channel. Drawdown measured in observation wells is matched to predictions by recently proposed analytical solutions to derive estimates of aquifer and streambed parameters. These estimates are compared to documented aquifer properties and field measured streambed conductivity. The analytical solutions are capable of estimating reasonable values of both aquifer and streambed parameters with one solution capable of simultaneously estimating delayed aquifer yield and stream flow recharge. However, for long term water management, it is reasonable to use simplified analytical solutions not concerned with early‐time delayed yield effects. For this site, changes in the water level in the stream during the test and a varying water level profile at the beginning of the pumping test influence the application of the analytical solutions.     

水泥土搅拌桩复合地基静载试验检测法的安全度分析

在检测水泥土搅拌桩复合地基的承载力能否达到设计要求时 ,最常用的方法是单桩静载试验法和复合地基静载试验法。工程实践中发现 ,采用这两种静载试验方法得到的检测结果存在较大差异。笔者根据水泥土搅拌桩的基本特性 ,结合工程实例 ,对这两种静载试验检测结果存在的差异及其安全度进行比较分析 ,得出单桩静载试验法结果的安全度高于复合地基试验法结果的结论 ,因此 ,提出了一些合理化建议     

Effects of pore volume-transmissivity correlation on transport phenomena

The relevant velocity that describes transport phenomena in a porous medium is the pore velocity. For this reason, one needs not only to describe the variability of transmissivity, which fully determines the Darcy velocity field for given source terms and boundary conditions, but also any variability of the pore volume. We demonstrate that hydraulically equivalent media with exactly the same transmissivity field can produce dramatic differences in the displacement of a solute if they have different pore volume distributions. In particular, we demonstrate that correlation between pore volume and transmissivity leads to a much smoother and more homogeneous solute distribution. This was observed in a laboratory experiment performed in artificial fractures made of two plexiglass plates into which a space-dependent aperture distribution was milled. Using visualization by a light transmission technique, we observe that the solute behaviour is much smoother and more regular after the fractures are filled with glass powder, which plays the role of a homogeneous fault gouge material. This is due to a perfect correlation between pore volume and transmissivity that causes pore velocity to be not directly dependent on the transmissivity, but only indirectly through the hydraulic gradient, which is a much smoother function due to the diffusive behaviour of the flow equation acting as a filter. This smoothing property of the pore volume-transmissivity correlation is also supported by numerical simulations of tracer tests in a dipole flow field. Three different conceptual models are used: an empty fracture, a rough-walled fracture filled with a homogeneous material and a parallel-plate fracture with a heterogeneous fault gouge. All three models are hydraulically equivalent, yet they have a different pore volume distribution. Even if piezometric heads and specific flow rates are exactly the same at any point of the domain, the transport process differs dramatically. These differences make it important to discriminate in situ among different conceptual models in order to simulate correctly the transport phenomena. For this reason, we study the solute breakthrough and recovery curves at the extraction wells. Our numerical case studies show that discrimination on the basis of such data might be impossible except under very favourable conditions, i.e. the integral scale of the transmissivity field has to be known and small compared to the dipole size. If the latter conditions are satisfied, discrimination between the rough-walled fracture filled with a homogeneous material and the other two models becomes possible, whereas the parallel-plate fracture with a heterogeneous fault gouge and the empty fracture still show identifiability problems. The latter may be solved by inspection of aperture and pressure testing.     

Spatial Distribution of Animals and Variation in Their Trophic Activity Measured Using the Bait-Lamina Test in Sod-Podzolic Soil under a Spruce Forest

The mode of spatial distribution of soil animals and their trophic activity was studied in the sod-podzolic soil under a spruce forest. At the test point level, no apparent relationship between the distribution of soil animals and physicochemical characteristics of the soil was observed. The patterns of distribution of detritophages and the trophic activity (measured using the bait-lamina test) were similar. The perforation of laminae in the bait-lamina test resulted from the trophic activity of both micro- and mesofauna.     

前兆异常与地震相关性研究—— 一个值得广大地震学者重视的问题

简要介绍了前兆异常与地震相关性定量分析方法,并列举了在进行这方面研究中目前存在的薄弱环节和困难,以期引起广大地震分析预报人员的重视。     

丁烷与空气混合物的爆炸性能测定

在不同条件下,对丁烷与空气混合物进行爆炸实验,由微机数采测试系统测定其爆炸参数（爆轰波压力、爆轰波传播速度等）、爆轰极限以及当其形成爆轰时所需的临界起爆能。通过实验测定,为评价丁烷与空气混合物的安全性能提供重要依据