基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型研究

重点阐述了基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型的建立过程,应用贝叶斯网络建立了开式压力机安全性评估模型,对冲手事故模型中的共因失效节点进行了说明,并最终计算得出开式压力机冲手事故的发生概率.计算结果分析表明:对于系统基本事件之间有共因和相关关系的系统,BN计算结果使得事故后果概率明显增大,设计者和管理者不能忽略共因和相关关系对系统风险的影响.     

Economic growth,international trade,and the depletion or conservation of renewable natural resources

Conservation of renewable natural resources and promotion of economic growth are both sustainable development goals. Here, we study the interdependency between economic growth, international trade, and the use of renewable natural resources—under alternative institutional settings of either open access or full property rights—in an endogenous growth model. We find that if the resource is depleted over time, consumption growth is reduced. Economic growth and international trade only impact resource use when the resource is harvested under full property rights. Then, widening international trade can lead countries to shift from conservation to depletion. Changes in the institutional setting of resource use in one country may have repercussions on trading partners. Our results indicate potential trade-offs between the sustainable development goals and imply that policies focusing on resource use or trade (e.g., international trade bans or certified trade) are not sufficient to prevent resource depletion.     

Temporal trends in agricultural water use and the relationships to hydroclimatic factors in the High Plains aquifer region

The High Plains aquifer (HPA) is the primary water source for agricultural irrigation in the US Great Plains. The water levels in many locations of the aquifer have declined steadily over the past several decades because the rate of water withdrawals exceeds recharge, which has been a serious concern to the water resources management in the region. We evaluated temporal trends and variations in agricultural water use and hydroclimatic variables including precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater level, and terrestrial water storage across the HPA region for different periods from 1985 to 2020 at the grid, county, or region scale. The results showed that water withdrawals decreased from 21.3 km³/year in 1985 to 18.2 km³/year in 2015, while irrigated croplands increased from 71,928 km² in 1985 to 78,464 km² in 2015 in the entire HPA. The hydroclimatic time-series showed wetting trends in most of the northern HPA, but drying and warming trends in the southern region from 1985 to 2020. The groundwater level time-series indicated flat trends in the north, but significant declining in the central and southern HPA. Trends in irrigation water withdrawals and irrigation area across the HPA were controlled by the advancement of irrigation systems and technologies and the management of sustainable water use, but also were affected by dynamical changes in the hydroclimatic conditions.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

Microtargeting for conservation

Widespread human action and behavior change is needed to achieve many conservation goals. Doing so at the requisite scale and pace will require the efficient delivery of outreach campaigns. Conservation gains will be greatest when efforts are directed toward places of high conservation value (or need) and tailored to critical actors. Recent strategic conservation planning has relied primarily on spatial assessments of biophysical attributes, largely ignoring the human dimensions. Elsewhere, marketers, political campaigns, and others use microtargeting—predictive analytics of big data—to identify people most likely to respond positively to particular messages or interventions. Conservationists have not yet widely capitalized on these techniques. To investigate the effectiveness of microtargeting to improve conservation, we developed a propensity model to predict restoration behavior among 203,645 private landowners in a 5,200,000 ha study area in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (U.S.A.). To isolate the additional value microtargeting may offer beyond geospatial prioritization, we analyzed a new high-resolution land-cover data set and cadastral data to identify private owners of riparian areas needing restoration. Subsequently, we developed and evaluated a restoration propensity model based on a database of landowners who had conducted restoration in the past and those who had not (n = 4978). Model validation in a parallel database (n = 4989) showed owners with the highest scorers for propensity to conduct restoration (i.e., top decile) were over twice as likely as average landowners to have conducted restoration (135%). These results demonstrate that microtargeting techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of conservation programs, above and beyond the advances offered by biophysical prioritizations alone, as well as facilitate more robust research of many social–ecological systems.     

HUD状态下飞行员视觉注意资源分配机制研究

为了解决平视显示器（Head Up Display,HUD）飞行中的注意资源分配问题，基于飞行模拟器，设计双作业飞行任务开展相关研究。基于事件相关电位（Event Related Potential，ERP）技术，选取行为绩效和P300成分为评价指标，采用oddball模式，在双作业飞行任务条件下开展实验研究。结果表明:随主任务难度的增加，主、辅任务的作业绩效均显著下降，被试者对HUD上异常信息的正确操作率降低，且反应时间延长；随主任务难度的增加，由辅任务所诱发的P300的波幅显著降低。在实验结果的基础上，最终提出了HUD状态下飞行员视觉注意资源分配机制。     

飞行员人因可靠性定量预测

为有效预测飞行员的人因可靠性,以保障飞行安全,基于认知可靠性与失误分析法(CREAM)的扩展法,建立飞行员人因可靠性定量预测模型。依据飞行员的任务特点,调整认知行为及认知功能。通过优化共同绩效条件(CPC)因子水平等级,并增加新的因子,改进CPC因子依赖规则,用于修正因子的初始评估结果,解决扩展法未考虑因子间关系的问题,从而完成模型的建立。利用回看分析法验证模型的有效性,采用所建立的模型和扩展法分别对已发生的飞行案例进行预测,并与实际发生结果对比分析。结果表明,与扩展法相比,采用飞行员定量预测模型得到的预测结果与案例发生结果所反映的控制模式更为匹配。     

瓦斯压力对卸荷原煤力学特性及能量特征的影响

运用自主研制的含瓦斯煤热流固耦合三轴伺服渗流试验装置,以原煤煤样作为研究对象,进行了含瓦斯煤固定轴向压力、卸围压的渗流试验,研究了卸围压过程中瓦斯压力对煤样力学特性和能量特征的影响。结果表明:在轴压加载阶段,煤样的变形模量基本不变,泊松比逐渐减小;在定轴压卸围压阶段,煤样的变形模量先小幅度增加,然后逐渐减小,泊松比则逐渐增大。瓦斯压力越高,煤样的承载能力越低,煤样发生破坏时相应的轴向应变和围压卸荷量百分比越小,而煤样破坏时的径向变形和扩容量越大。各应变围压柔量Δεi与瓦斯压力呈线性关系且线性相关性良好。随瓦斯压力升高,轴向应变的围压敏感性降低,径向应变和体积应变的围压敏感性显著升高。随瓦斯压力升高,煤样发生破坏时存储的弹性应变能Ue减小,而总能量U、耗散能Ud和耗散能比例Ud/U都增大。     

考虑爆裂影响的钢筋混凝土梁火灾温度场数值分析

为了描述混凝土高温爆裂对构件热传导过程的影响,结合钢筋混凝土梁火灾试验,考虑爆裂时间和区域的不确定性,建立了火灾下钢筋混凝土梁数值分析模型,分析爆裂深度、爆裂面积比、爆裂位置等爆裂参数对梁跨中截面温度场的影响规律。研究结果表明:当钢筋混凝土梁发生受火爆裂,梁截面的温度显著升高,并随爆裂深度的增大而进一步增强;爆裂面积比对截面温度场影响不显著,当爆裂深度、爆裂位置一定,爆裂面积比增加达到13%左右时,截面温度场基本上不再变化;爆裂深度、爆裂面积比一定,梁跨中爆裂对截面温度场影响最大,但是底部纵筋处温度较顶部纵筋处温度升高较快。     

南岳衡山风景名胜区景观资源的调查与评价

景观资源是旅游资源的重要组成因素,本文以自然综合体的南岳衡山为考察对象,对其景观资源进行较详尽的调查,并进行定性和定量的评价,为确定南岳衡山风景名胜区性质、规划提供基础资料.