事故的共性原因及其行为科学预防策略

任何事故都是有原因的,事故的原因可分为人和物两个方面,事故的严重度与事故频率间存在三角形分布规律.运用这三条安全科学基本原理和案例分析方法,分析多起不同类型事故.结果表明,事故的共性直接原因是安全知识、安全意识和安全习惯所引起的组织成员个体的不安全行为和物的不安全状态.用行为科学方法和系统化安全管理理论,制订了一个由规范组织成员个体安全行为的安全管理方案、个人行为纠正方法和安全培训组成的通用事故预防路线图,并阐述了路线图实施时所需要的组织行为分析、个人行为纠正和安全培训方法研究的最新进展.     

Effects of combinations of malathion and cypermethrin on survivability and time of metamorphosis of tadpoles of Indian cricket frog (Fejervarya limnocharis)

This study was undertaken to determine the effect of environmentally realistic concentrations of two commonly used pesticides viz., malathion and cypermethrin, using a fully 3 × 3 factorial experiments on the survivability and time of metamorphosis in a common rice paddy field frog (cricket frog) Fejervarya limnocharis under laboratory conditions. The results suggest that cypermethrin is more toxic than malathion and combinations of higher concentrations of cypermethrin (50 μg/L) with malathion (250 and 500 μg/L) are more deleterious to the survivability of tadpoles. With increasing cypermethrin concentration, the survivability of tadpole decreased (r = ?0.986, P = 0.108). But cypermethrin alone induced early metamorphosis among the surviving tadpoles. However, there was a delay in the time required for metamorphosis induced by malathion and its combination with cypermethrin. The delay in metamorphosis may indicate the altered physiological fitness of the individual. The emergent froglets will be subjected to environmental stressors like high temperature and less humidity of post-monsoon tropical climate that could enhance negative influence triggered by pesticides.     

基于BDD考虑共因失效的接触网系统可靠性分析

为分析共因失效对高速铁路接触网系统的影响，将二元决策图(Binary Decision Diagram，BDD)与共因失效理论引入到接触网系统可靠性分析中。利用逻辑相邻优先组合法(Logic Neighbor Priority Connect，LNPC)将高速铁路接触网系统的故障树模型转化为BDD模型并求取其可靠度表达式，利用隐式方法对考虑了共因失效的接触网系统可靠度进行计算，利用MATLAB绘制考虑共因失效和不考虑共因失效情况下接触网系统可靠度变化曲线。研究结果表明:提出的分析方法适用于接触网系统的可靠性分析，为接触网系统的可靠性分析提供了一定的理论依据。     

飞行员人因可靠性定量预测

为有效预测飞行员的人因可靠性,以保障飞行安全,基于认知可靠性与失误分析法(CREAM)的扩展法,建立飞行员人因可靠性定量预测模型。依据飞行员的任务特点,调整认知行为及认知功能。通过优化共同绩效条件(CPC)因子水平等级,并增加新的因子,改进CPC因子依赖规则,用于修正因子的初始评估结果,解决扩展法未考虑因子间关系的问题,从而完成模型的建立。利用回看分析法验证模型的有效性,采用所建立的模型和扩展法分别对已发生的飞行案例进行预测,并与实际发生结果对比分析。结果表明,与扩展法相比,采用飞行员定量预测模型得到的预测结果与案例发生结果所反映的控制模式更为匹配。     

Rethinking Community-Based Conservation

Abstract:  Community-based conservation (CBC) is based on the idea that if conservation and development could be simultaneously achieved, then the interests of both could be served. It has been controversial because community development objectives are not necessarily consistent with conservation objectives in a given case. I examined CBC from two angles. First, CBC can be seen in the context of paradigm shifts in ecology and applied ecology. I identified three conceptual shifts—toward a systems view, toward the inclusion of humans in the ecosystem, and toward participatory approaches to ecosystem management—that are interrelated and pertain to an understanding of ecosystems as complex adaptive systems in which humans are an integral part. Second, I investigated the feasibility of CBC, as informed by a number of emerging interdisciplinary fields that have been pursuing various aspects of coupled systems of humans and nature. These fields—common property, traditional ecological knowledge, environmental ethics, political ecology, and environmental history—provide insights for CBC. They may contribute to the development of an interdisciplinary conservation science with a more sophisticated understanding of social-ecological interactions. The lessons from these fields include the importance of cross-scale conservation, adaptive comanagement, the question of incentives and multiple stakeholders, the use of traditional ecological knowledge, and development of a cross-cultural conservation ethic.     

低浓度阿维菌素对鲤鱼超氧化物歧化酶（SOD）的影响(Effect of Low Concentration of Avermectins on Superoxide Dismutase （SOD）Activities in Common Carp)

研究了阿维菌素长期暴露下鲤鱼肝脏和肌肉超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活性的动态变化.结果表明:阿维菌素对SOD活性具有较大影响.低浓度组(3.2μg·L-1)SOD活性随暴露时间无显著变化(p>0.05);中浓度组(5.6μg·L-1和7.5μg·L-1)SOD活性先显著上升(p<0.05),随后又显著下降(p<0.05);高浓度组(10μg·L-1和18μg·L-1)SOD活性呈逐渐下降趋势,48h后极显著低于对照(p<0.01).解除污染胁迫10d,低浓度和中浓度组SOD活性能恢复到正常水平,但高浓度组SOD活性不能恢复到正常水平,说明低浓度阿维菌素对鲤鱼机体产生的损伤是可逆性的,而高浓度阿维菌素会对鲤鱼机体产生不可逆损伤.阿维菌素暴露浓度与其对鲤鱼肝脏和肌肉SOD活性抑制率之间具有显著剂量-效应关系,可以考虑将其作为水体中阿维菌素类药物污染的生物标志物;同时,由于正常鲤鱼(对照组)肌肉中SOD活性和受污染胁迫时SOD活性变化的显著性远低于肝脏,因此在考虑用SOD作为生物标志物对水体中阿维菌素污染进行监测时,肝脏是比较理想的取样器官.     

甘南高寒草甸植物群落物种多度分布特征

为分析甘南高寒草甸植物群落物种多度分布格局对海拔梯度的响应,探讨物种多样性的形成规律及维持机制,采用典型样地调查法采集数据信息,并通过RAD软件程序包对实验数据进行拟合分析.结果表明:植物群落物种多样性随海拔的升高呈现先增加后降低的"中间膨胀"模式,海拔3500m处群落物种多样性达到最大.利用5个模型对海拔梯度上全部物...     

国外舰载导弹发射装置发展综述

介绍了国外舰载导弹发射装置的基本概况及发展历程,分析了固定式发射装置、回转式发射装置、臂式发射装置、垂直发射装置的优缺点及适装范围。根据冷热发射方式的特点,分析了4种发射装置安装方式、贮弹量、射界、发射效率、反应速度、可靠性、安全性等基本性能,阐明了倾斜发射、垂直发射、冷热共架发射的基本原理。垂直发射装置以射界大、效率高、反应快、贮弹量多等优点成为舰载发射装置主流,倾斜发射在近程末端区域防空方面,可提前指向目标,减少导弹近距离大幅机动时间,提升末端拦截概率,是垂直发射的有效补充。舰载导弹发射装置正在朝垂直化、通用化发展,模块化发射和电磁垂直发射是下一代舰载发射的发展方向。     

Concept of common interests of mankind in the global environmental protection

The concept of common interests of mankind in the environmental protec-tion spurred -by the internationalized and globalized environmental problems are discussed in this paper. While making challenges for many principles and rules of international law and the traditional conception of national security, the concept does play its role in strengthening the environmental protection. However, it cannot be neglected that diflerent national interests pose an obstacle to the realization of the common interests of mankind in the envirormental protection. The article concludes that whether the concept plays its greater role in the environmental protection will depend on many factors, such as the spread of environmental awareness, the revision of the traditional conception and the balanced development of the world economy.     

鲤鱼鱼鳃粘液对铜的络合特征

用络合滴定法研究了鲤鱼鱼鳃粘液对铜的络合特性 ,并根据实测数据考察了不同拟合方法的优劣 .结果表明 ,在选定的滴定范围内 ,单配体模型可以很好地描述粘液和铜之间的相互作用 .各种拟合方法中 ,常用的经线性变换的Scatchard方法误差最大 ,其余方法相差不大 .对这些方法进行一次迭代可以大大改善拟合精度和稳健性 .由此得到的条件稳定常数为 7 0 5 ,络合容量为 0 1 5 8μmol·mg- 1C .