Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

A Global Overview of Atmospheric Acid Deposition Fluxes

This paper presents a summary of globalacid deposition flux data taken from a globalassessment report on acid deposition prepared forUNEP/WMO (Whelpdale and Kaiser, 1996). There is a largevariation in the spacial coverage and reliability ofmonitoring around the world. Many more stationsmeasure wet deposition than collect appropriate datafor estimating dry deposition. The widespread regionswith highest precipitation concentrations anddeposition fluxes of sulphate and nitrate coincideclosely with the regions of highest density ofSO₂ and NO_x precursor emissions occurringprimarily in the mid-latitude, northern hemispherebelt where a large fraction of the worlds fossilfuels is consumed. Organic acids in precipitation makea minor contribution to acidity (<20%) inindustrial regions, but in the rest of the world theyare of same order, or even exceed, inorganic acids.Less is known about dry deposition, but it appears topredominate near strong emission sources with wetdeposition predominating farther downwind. The molarratio of the N/S contribution to acidic deposition isclose to 1.0 over large areas of Europe and NorthAmerica, but is highly variable elsewhere, beinghighest in equatorial regions due to biomass burningand lowest near smelters and other large sources of SO₂.     

Nonstationary, long memory and anti-persistence in several climatological time series data

In this article we examine the stochastic behaviour of several daily datasets describing sun (total irradiance at the top of the atmosphere and sunspot numbers) and various climatological anomaly series by looking at their orders of integration. We use a testing procedure that permits us to consider fractional degrees of integration. The tests are valid under general forms of serial correlation and deterministic trends and do not require estimation of the fractional differencing parameter. Results show that the series are all nonstationary, with increments that might be stationary for those variables affecting sun, and anti-persistent for those affecting air temperatures.     

关于模糊数学在环境质量综合评判中“最大隶属度”原则不适用性的讨论

通过对模糊数学在环境质量综合评判中的分析，指出“最大隶属度”原则的不适用性，并根据环境质量分级所存在的固有关系提出改进的方法。     

应用模糊综合指数法对伊犁河（伊宁段）水质的综合评价

模糊数学法对伊犁河(伊宁段)水质进行综合评价时,由于分别采用地面水环境质量标准中五类标准值的平均值及其中三个标准值,计算后的结果不一致,而模糊综合指数法避免了这类问题的出现,计算结果比较满意.从而表明,该法是对模糊数学法的进一步改进.     

The Impact of Landsat Satellite Monitoring on Conservation Biology

Landsat 7s recent malfunctioning will result in significant gaps in long-term satellite monitoring of Earth, affecting not only the research of the Earth science community but also conservation users of these data. To determine whether or how important Landsat monitoring is for conservation and natural resource management, we reviewed the Landsat programs history with special emphasis on the development of user groups. We also conducted a bibliographic search to determine the extent to which conservation research has been based on Landsat data. Conservation biologists were not an early user group of Landsat data because a) biologists lacked technical capacity – computers and software – to analyze these data; b) Landsats 1980s commercialization rendered images too costly for biologists budgets; and c) the broad-scale disciplines of conservation biology and landscape ecology did not develop until the mid-to-late 1980s. All these conditions had changed by the 1990s and Landsat imagery became an important tool for conservation biology. Satellite monitoring and Landsat continuity are mandated by the Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992. This legislation leaves open commercial options. However, past experiments with commercial operations were neither viable nor economical, and severely reduced the quality of monitoring, archiving and data access for academia and the public. Future satellite monitoring programs are essential for conservation and natural resource management, must provide continuity with Landsat, and should be government operated.     

新疆生态环境质量综合评价研究

合适的评价指标体系对正确评价区域的生态环境质量起关键的决定性作用。本文综合前人的研究成果，应用RS和GIS技术，采用综合指数评价法，对全疆区域的生态环境质量进行评价、排序及分级，由此得出符合实际的全疆生态环境质量状况。结果表明，全疆生态环境质量总体较差，北疆生态环境质量优于南疆，北疆西部生态环境质量优于北疆东部地区。     

电厂脱硫产物的处置和综合利用

本文通过对电厂脱硫产物成份的分析,并类比国外技术论述其贮存处置方法,脱硫产物综合利用的用途及合理性.     

工业污染源综合评价层次分析法

根据层次分析法原理，可将污染源分解成污染要素，再分解为影响因子再分解为次级因子层，构造污染源评价的多层次评价结构模型，根据评价对象的性质和特点，建立指标体系，再据确定的取值规则，以各因子层构成准则层，以各污染源构成方案层，建立判断矩阵计算总排序权值，进行污染源综合评价。     

环保产业——上海21世纪新的经济增长点

环境与经济协调发展已成为世界性主题,环境保护、绿色浪潮的呼声越来越高,许多国家都在瞄准这一全球性的环保大市场。尽管目前上海的环保产业还比较弱,但应当看到其发展的广阔前景和良好条件,只要方方面面重视环保产业的发展,环保产业必将成为上海21世纪新的经济增长点。该文从环保产业在经济发展中的作用谈起,展望了环保产业发展的市场前景,并就上海环保产业发展的主要方向作了较详细的阐述。