Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest-tundra communities in the polar urals

The spatiotemporal dynamics of forest-tundra communities in the 20th century have been studied in the timberline ecotone of the Polar Urals. Maps reflecting the distribution of different types of forest-tundra communities have been made, and data on the morphological and age structure of tree stands have been obtained for three time sections (the mid-1910s, 1960s, and 2000s). They show that open and closed forests have markedly expanded due to natural afforestation of the tundra and increase in the density and productivity of existing forest stands. The unidirectional pattern of plant community transition (from the tundra to closed forests) and meteorological data provide evidence that this transition has been conditioned by climate warming and increasing humidity recorded during the past 90 years.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 2, 2005, pp. 83–90.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Shiyatov, Terentev, Fomin.     

Unexpected structural chromosome rearrangements in prenatal diagnosis

Among 5315 prenatal diagnoses performed for various indications (maternal age, neural tube defect, metabolic diseases, X-linked diseases, pathologic pregnancies) 29 unexpected structural chromosome rearrangements were found in fetal cells. Fourteen were de novo chromosome rearrangements, six unbalanced, and eight balanced. Fifteen were inherited and balanced rearrangements. This high frequency of structural anomalies is discussed.     

废钻井液、泥浆的处理与控制对策

介绍中原油田分公司实施源头控制,减少废钻井液产生和利用无害化技术处理钻井废弃泥浆的实践,分析存在的主要问题,提出减少废钻井液产生的控制对策.     

一种高效节能的生物三相流化床技术

将竖流式生物三相流化床改为封闭卧式生物三相流化床后 ,不但保留了竖流式生物三相流化床原有的优点 ,消除了竖流式生物三相流化床存在的一些缺陷 ,而且又新增了功能 ,特别是电耗下降近 4 0 %。并着重介绍封闭卧式生物三相流化床在地下车库或其它对高度有限制场所的应用实例。该设备在处理餐饮业废水和一些中、小型工业有机废水中有较高的推广价值。     

通用航空安全体系自组织演化动力学机制与模式研究

建立符合通用航空发展规律的通用航空安全管理理论体系,是通用航空发展的前提.本文以通用航空发展特点为基础,应用自组织理论对通用航空发展的组织特性进行了分析,研究了通用航空安全体系自组织生成模式的前提条件和动因,剖析了通用航空安全体系自组织演化的内外部动力因素,以及其相互作用方式和过程,从而解构出通用航空安全体系自组织演化的动力学机制—涨落机制、创新机制、选择机制和学习机制,在此基础上,构建了通用航空安全体系自组织演化动力学模型.最后,结合实际对我国通用航空安全管理体系建设提出了相应的建议.     

雨雪冰冻灾害后粤北森林各林型凋落物动态

为了考察中国亚热带不同森林类型对雨雪冰冻灾害的响应模式,以粤北天井山3种代表性的林型—针叶林、阔叶林和混交林为对象,于不同森林类型中比较受损森林与未受损森林在凋落物年产量、成分及月际动态方面的差异,从而在凋落物水平上反映不同森林类型在雨雪冰冻灾害后的早期恢复力。研究结果表明,灾后针叶林、阔叶林和混交林的年凋落量分别为0.52、3.21、1.37 t.hm-2,比未受损的同种森林类型年凋落量显著减少,减少程度分别为87.89%、53.46%、76.78%。由此可以看出阔叶林的植被恢复情况最好,说明在凋落物水平上,其灾后恢复的早期阶段恢复力最强。在凋落物成分方面,灾后各森林类型叶凋落物所占比例显著增加,枝凋落物所占比例则显著减少。受损针叶林和阔叶林的凋落物月动态与未受损森林基本一致,但其波动幅度较小;在混交林中,受损和未受损森林其凋落量的季节动态模式则表现出不一致性且为不规则型。根据研究结果,建议在亚热带地区优先考虑种植阔叶林以促进受损森林在类似雨雪冰冻灾害的极端天气后的恢复。     

System dynamics research of non-adaptive evacuation psychology in toxic gas leakage emergencies of chemical park

Chemical industry park plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of resources, but an emergency may make a great deal of personnel casualty and property loss. Many casualties are not the result of accidents but are caused by extreme behavior because of the non-adaptive psychology of the evacuees. Panic is one of the non-adaptive psychological behaviors during an evacuation, which is influenced by a variety of factors. Based on the consideration of the disaster environment and the evolution of crowd emotion, a system dynamics model of panic spread is established by using Anylogic software, and simulation experiments are carried out for different disaster severity, visibility, and groups. The results show that the number of people with severe panic increase when visibility decreases or disaster diffuses. Besides, the appropriate proportion of groups can effectively reduce the cooling time of crowd and ease the fears. However, continue to increase the number of groups has no significant effect on the panic control. This work can provide some reasonable guidance for regional emergency evacuation in chemical park.     

Numerical simulation of small-scale pool fires of LNG

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been largely indicated as a promising alternative solution for the transportation and storage of natural gas. In the case of accidental release on the ground, a pool fire scenario may occur. Despite the relevance of this accident, due to its likelihood and potential to trigger domino effects, accurate analyses addressing the characterization of pool fires of LNG are still missing.In this work, the fire dynamic simulator (FDS) has been adopted for the evaluation of the effects of the released amount of fuel and its composition (methane, ethane, and propane), on the thermal and chemical properties of small-scale LNG pool fire. More specifically, the heat release rate, the burning rate, the flame height, and thermal radiation, at different initial conditions, have been evaluated for pool having diameter smaller than 10 m. Safety distances have been calculated for all the investigated conditions, as well.Results have also been compared with data and correlations retrieved from the current literature. The equation of Thomas seems to work properly for the definition of the height over diameter ratio of the LNG pool fire for all the mixture and the investigated diameters.The addition of ethane and propane significantly affects the obtained results, especially in terms of radiative thermal radiation peaks, thus indicating the inadequacy of the commonly adopted assumption of pure methane as single, surrogate species for the LNG mixture.     

A study of the precursors leading to ‘organisational’ accidents in complex industrial settings

This study aggregates the narrative findings from the investigation of 12 accidents or ‘near hits’ across a wide range of industrial settings to build a catalogue of organisational and cultural precursors to accidents. It was found that many were important factors in multiple events. It is argued that by addressing these potential vulnerabilities using the findings and proposed tools based upon them, organisations undertaking safety related activities will not only develop greater awareness of these deeper-lying issues but should be able to better control the risks associated with them.The precursors have been classified under eight headings and examples of key findings from three of these are presented. Statements providing potential defences against the identified vulnerabilities have been developed which should enable organisations to scrutinise the adequacy of existing expectations or requirements within their business. Probing questions have been developed based on the statements which should allow an assessment to be made as to whether these have been ‘embedded’ in the organisation.It is argued that organisational vulnerability tools should be developed to enable a systematic approach to ‘diagnosing’ incubating precursors. It is also argued that there is the potential for further resilience to be achieved through the use of models of the complex dynamics of socio-technical processes within organisations.     

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.