Simulation and application of a disaster spread model in Chemical Disaster Network

In the research field of chemical safety, the computer-aided simulation for occurrence and process of disasters has become a major trend in current research, in which the establishment of evolution system for chemical multi disasters is the key point. In the paper, the study lays emphasis on the simulation and application of a spread model for chemical multi disasters. After establishing a disaster network, we defined microcosmic elements of spread model specifically. Combined with guideline of chemical disaster (e.g. guideline of heat flux for damages or injure, guideline of evaluation for buildings based explosion and overpressure, and guideline of evaluation for human exposure to toxic gases), the weight of impact can be computed using new comprehensive algorithms. Simultaneously, the paper also uses an approach on simulating multiple failure events to describe random factors of triggering disasters. At last, the experimental case of alkyl aluminum leakage in a polypropylene plant shows the result of simulation with table of 5 major series of disasters and distribution diagram of nodes (disasters) in disaster network. This proves the validity and practicability of the simulation system in the establishment and feedback of contingency plan of large-scale petrochemical enterprises.     

Dynamic behavior of direct spring loaded pressure relief valves in gas service: Model development,measurements and instability mechanisms

A synthesis of previous literature is used to derive a model of an in-service direct-spring pressure relief valve. The model couples low-order rigid body mechanics for the valve to one-dimensional gas dynamics within the pipe. Detailed laboratory experiments are also presented for three different commercially available values, for varying mass flow rates and length of inlet pipe. In each case, violent oscillation is found to occur beyond a critical pipe length, which may be triggered either on valve opening or closing. The test results compare favorably to the simulations using the model. In particular, the model reveals that the mechanism of instability is a Hopf bifurcation (flutter instability) involving the fundamental, quarter-wave pipe mode. Furthermore, the concept of the effective area of the valve as a function of valve lift is shown to be useful in explaining sudden jumps observed in the test data. It is argued that these instabilities are not alleviated by the 3% inlet line loss criterion that has recently been proposed as an industry standard.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides in amniotic fluids of pregnant women in south-central Turkey†

The concentrations of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were determined in amniotic fluid of 200 pregnant women from the Cukurova region of Turkey. The concentrations of OCPs [hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane (p,p′-DDT), and various metabolites], and different PCB congeners (28, 52, 101, 118, 138, 153, 180) were determined by gas chromatography with electron capture detection as follows: HCB 6.6 ± 4.7, ΣHCH 21.6 ± 14.2, ΣDDT 12.5 ± 7.5, and ΣPCBs 74.0 ± 54 ng mL^?1. Correlations of maternal or gestational age and levels of OCPs and PCBs were not significant. The levels of these organochlorine compounds (OCs) were below detection limit for 5% of the samples, 80% contained more than one OC. This study illustrates that prenatal exposure of a fetus to OCs is prevalent in the Cukurova region.     

A system dynamics model for evaluating collaborative forest management: a case study in Indonesia

This article presents a system dynamics (SD) method to examine the problem of forest degradation. The model developed takes a system-oriented view of forest management, embracing both social and biophysical factors affecting deforestation. Social factors examined are socio-economic variables or elements that influence behaviour and decision-making choices at the household level. Biophysical factors are four sub-components that are considered major land uses namely, the paddy field component, rattan plantations, coffee plantations and forest stands. The model was applied in a case study located in Pasir District of East Kalimantan, Indonesia. The site covers an area that includes a protected forest and a privately allocated timber license concession. Three village communities are examined in the case study. The SD model developed was applied to the case study focusing on three management policies or scenarios, which are based on access rights to the forest resources within the study area. Specifically, the property arrangements examined in each scenario are: Policy 1 – status quo (i.e. continue present property rights arrangements); Policy 2 – local communities manage the forest exclusively; and Policy 3 – collaborative management involving both local communities and a private company. Results from the model show that the third policy is the most viable option, and also lead to a win–win solution.     

Ecological processes and sustainability

SUMMARY

Ecology has developed from its position as an obscure science to being at the interface of science and public policy. The impact of mankind can be described in ecological terms relating to population size, energy use and non-renewability. Sustainable development needs to be addressed on the basis of knowledge of ecological processes which maintain the environment in a state of change; the processes need to be conserved, not maintained in any particular state. Recent advances in the understanding of ecological processes are reviewed to highlight the potential contribution of this knowledge to the development of a sustainable policy. At the level of the population the significance of considering the extinction risks in the framework of spatio-temporal dynamics is now established indicating opportunities for planning land use more precisely to sustain biodiversity. Whilst the maintenance of habitats is generally the key to the persistence of biodiversity, they must be viewed as ever-changing mosaics within which cycles of succession, best described by Markovian sets of probabilities, are occurring continually. The extent to which these probabilities are distorted will determine whether the ecosystem returns to the same system or moves to a novel one. At the global level, biogeochemical cycles have a certain flexibility in relation to fluxes and stocks, hence pollution must be defined by relating the flow rate of the substance to this flexibility, which often permits the accommodation of anthropogenic perturbations. Non-sustainable processes can be defined in ecological terms, thus providing functional definitions of a sustainable policy and of sustainable development.     

园林绿化树种香樟叶片的含硫量动态分析

植物对一定浓度范围内的大气污染物,具有一定程度的抵抗及吸收净化作用。为了解南京市主要园林绿化树种香樟（Cinnamomum camphora）叶片吸收净化SO2的能力,选择在5个不同污染靶区,以3个不同胸径级的香樟叶片为研究对象,采用硫酸钡比浊法测定了不同季节香樟叶片的含硫量。结果表明：香樟叶片对SO2具有一定的吸收净化能力,其叶片含硫量平均为0.2160%,且其含量随分布区、生长季节及个体胸径不同差异显著;并与异域大气中SO2污染指数成一定的正相关;与个体胸径大小成显著负相关;季节间呈现出＂先降后升再降＂的动态趋势,于春秋季较高,而夏冬季较低。     

Threshold management in a coupled economic–ecological system

Economic analysis of optimal ecosystem management in the presence of a threshold has typically ignored the potential for induced behavioral responses. This paper contributes to the literature on non-convex ecosystem management by considering the implications of a particular behavioral response in a regional economy – that of amenity-led growth – to changes in ecosystem services generated by a lake ecosystem subject to a eutrophication threshold. The essential policy challenge is to achieve optimal levels of lake nutrients and urbanization given that improvements to water quality will induce additional migration and urbanization in the region with attendant ecological impacts. We show that policies that ignore the recursive relationship between urbanization and water quality unintentionally exacerbate boom-bust cycles of regional growth and decline and risk pushing the system towards long-run economic decline. In contrast, the optimal policy accounts for the behavioral feedbacks to improved ecosystem services, and balances regional growth and ecological degradation.     

Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.     

Influence of low and decreasing food levels on Daphnia-algal interactions: Numerical experiments with a new dynamic energy budget model

Based on numerical experiments with a new physiologically structured population model we demonstrate that predator physiology under low food and under starving conditions can have substantial implications for population dynamics in predator-prey interactions. We focused on Daphnia-algae interactions as model system and developed a new dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for individual daphnids. This model integrates the κ-rule approach common to net assimilation models into a net-production model, but uses a fixed allocation of net-productive energy in juveniles. The new DEB-model agrees well with the results of life history experiments with Daphnia. Compared to a pure κ-rule model the new allocation scheme leads to significant earlier maturation at low food levels and thus is in better agreement with the data. Incorporation of the new DEB-model into a physiologically structured population model using a box-car elevator technique revealed that the dynamics of Daphnia-algae interactions are highly sensitive to the assumptions on the energy allocation of juveniles under low food conditions. Additionally we show that also other energy allocation rules of our DEB-model concerning decreasing food levels and starving conditions at the individual level have strong implications for Daphnia-algae interactions at the population level. With increasing carrying capacity of algae a stable equilibrium with coexistence of Daphnia occurs and algae shifts to limit cycles. The amplitudes of the limit cycles increase with increasing percentage of sustainable weight loss. If a κ-rule energy allocation is applied to juveniles, the stable equilibrium occurs for a much narrower range of algal carrying capacities, the algal concentration at equilibrium is about 2 times larger, and the range of algae carrying capacities at which daphnids become extinct extends to higher carrying capacities than in the new DEB-model. Because predator-prey dynamics are very sensitive to predator physiology under low food and starving conditions, empirical constraints of predator physiology under these conditions are essential when comparing model results with observations in laboratory experiments or in the field.     

钻井废弃液中石油污染物及细菌生态多样性

采用GC/MS分析方法,发现平湖油田钻井废弃液中含有烃类、酸类和酯类等23种有机污染物质,含量达到49 800 mg/L。运用16S rRNA基因分析法测得的微生物生态多样性表明,废弃液中微生物种类丰富,包括γ和β变形杆菌,γ-Proteobacteria是优势菌群,占克隆总数78.6%。Oceanospirillales、Pseudomonadales和Enterobacteriales是γ-Proteobacteria纲的主要菌群。