Modelling crayfish population dynamics using catch data: A size-structured model

In this study we explore a rather unique time series (1979–2002) of catch data of the crayfish Astacus astacus in Lake Steinsfjorden (SE Norway) in combination with temperature data and data on Canadian pondweed Elodea canadensis coverage. In 1977, E. canadensis was for the first time observed in the lake. Over the following years, the plant established dense covers over large parts of the shallow areas, excluding the crayfish from these areas and causing a sudden drop in population size. A size-structured model with bi-stability including a range of observed stage-specific life-cycle attributes (e.g. growth, fecundity, fertility, sex-ratio), population specific parameters and density-dependant (shelters, cannibalism, unspecified predators, competition between individuals, catch, number of traps) as well as density independent factors (temperature and Elodea coverage) were constructed to evaluate the various drivers for the population dynamics, and as a predictive tool for assessing the effects of future changes. Our model revealed that the decline primarily was due to density-dependant effect of the Elodea expansion with reduced number of hides and thus increased risk for predation and cannibalism, but also that temperature played an important role related to recruitment. The model should be relevant for crayfish stock management in general, and by demonstrating the major role of temperature, it is also relevant for predicting population responses under a changing climate. The model should also be applicable to other crustaceans and species with discrete growth and late maturation.     

Sensitivity of plant-pollinator-herbivore communities to changes in phenology

For many species in seasonal environments, warmer springs associated with anthropogenic climate change are causing phenological changes. Within ecological communities, the timing of interactions among species may be altered if the species experience asymmetrical phenological shifts. We present a model that examines the consequences of changes in the relative timing of herbivory and pollination in a community of herbivores and pollinators that share a host plant. Our model suggests that phenological shifts can alter the abundances of these species and, in some cases, their population dynamics. If historical patterns of interactions in a community change and herbivores become active before pollinators, the community could see a reduction in pollinators and an increase in herbivores, while if pollinators become active before herbivores, there could be a loss of stable coexistence. Previous studies have warned of the potential for climate change to cause large phenological mismatches whereby species that depend on one another become so separated in time that they can no longer interact. Our results suggest that climate change-induced phenological shifts can have a major impact on communities even in cases where complete phenological mismatches do not occur.     

Modelling the spatial population dynamics of the green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana) using density dependent competitive interactions: Effects of herbivore mortality and varying host-plant quality

Cyclic population dynamics of forest insects with periods of more than two generations have been discussed in relation to a variety of extrinsic and intrinsic forces. In the present study, we employed the selection pressure of density dependent competitive interactions according to Witting's equations (Witting, 2000) as driver for a discrete spatiotemporal model of the green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana). The model was successfully parameterised to rebuild the cyclic population dynamics of an empirical data set of a 30-year leaf roller monitoring in Russia. Our analysis focussed on the role of herbivore mortality and host plant food quality, which have a significant effect on T. viridana population dynamics. An additional egg or larvae mortality lowers population density and can lead to selection pressures that favour individuals with higher growth rate. This increased population growth rate can not only compensate the additional mortality, but also can lead to higher average moth abundances in subsequent generations. Furthermore, we analysed the effect of inter- and intraspecific variation in host plant quality on herbivore population dynamics and the spatial distribution of abundance and defoliation patterns. We found significant effects of the qualitative composition of a trees neighbourhood on the herbivore population of the respective tree. Also, the patchy damage patterns observable in reality have been reproduced by the present model. The applicability of the model approach and the putative genetic processes underlying Witting's model are discussed.     

苹果和土壤中丙森锌的消解动态及残留规律

研究了苹果和土壤中丙森锌残留的气相色谱分析方法,及其代谢物乙撑硫脲的高效液相色谱分析方法,并在天津、山东烟台和陕西咸阳进行了苹果和土壤中丙森锌及其代谢物乙撑硫脲残留消解动态和残留规律田间试验研究.结果表明,在0.05—2 mg·kg-1的加标水平下,苹果和土壤中丙森锌的加标回收率分别为77.12%—92.85%和9.24%—94.68%,变异系数分别为3.30%—6.56％和3.29%—5.29％;在0.05—1 mg·kg-1的加标水平下,苹果和土壤中乙撑硫脲的加标回收率分别为80.91%—97.47%和84.11%—99.97%,变异系数分别为3.23%—3.82％和2.80%—3.40％.苹果和土壤中丙森锌和乙撑硫脲的最小检出量分别为5.0×10-10 g和1.0×10-10g,其中苹果和土壤中丙森锌的最低检出浓度为0.025 mg·kg-1,乙撑硫脲的最低检出浓度为0.005 mg·kg-1.按1.5倍推荐剂量600倍稀释液在苹果上施用65%戊唑醇·丙森锌可湿性粉剂1次,丙森锌在苹果和土壤中的残留消解半衰期分别为6.0—6.8 d和8.7—10.1 d.按推荐剂量和1.5倍推荐剂量在苹果上各施用65%戊唑醇·丙森锌可湿性粉剂3—4次,2次施药间隔为10 d,距最后一次施药21 d时,丙森锌在苹果中的最高残留量低于我国农业行业标准规定的最大残留限量2 mg·kg-1.     

广东大亚湾藻类水华的动力学分析 Ⅱ.藻类水华与营养元素的关系研究

1998年1月-12月在广东大亚湾澳头海域布设6个监测站位,每3天采样1次,连续监测浮游植物种群结构及其时空演替.4月-6月上旬同步监测水温、盐度、光照、pH值、DO、叶绿素a、COD、浊度和营养元素等环境因子,其余月份每月测定一次.监测结果表明,大亚湾澳头海域1998年全年先后发生日本星杆藻(Asterionellajaponica)水华、细弱海链藻(Thalathiosirasubtilis)水华、裸甲藻(Gymnodiniumspp.)水华、角毛藻(Chaetocerosspp.)水华.对各种营养元     

松花江水质因子分析及动态变化

松花江的水质一直受到各方的关注,尤其是在80年代末到90年代初.大多数的研究都关注重金属、有机有毒污染物等主要污染物的源、汇、归宿以及生态效应.然而,这些研究通常只考虑一个或几个独立的水质指标,多个指标的联合效应则很少研究.文章在监测数据的基础上,对松花江水质运用因子分析方法进行了研究.利用因子分析方法可以综合地考虑每个监测断面上的各个监测指标在不同水文期的变化.分析结果表明,松花江的主要污染物是来自非点源的氮源污染物,且其水质在不同的水文期是不同的.这一结果也表明,因子分析方法在分析水质动态变化上是综合有效的.     

区域社会经济发展与生态环境耦合关系研究模型的比较分析

社会经济发展与环境资源相协调是可持续发展的重要途径,判断当前区域社会经济发展与生态环境间的耦合关系是建立有效协调机制的关键。本文从发展、机理方法和应用实例等方面系统介绍了目前在社会经济发展与生态环境之间耦合关系研究中主要的3类模型:计量经济学模型(环境库兹涅茨曲线)、耦合度定量判断模型(包括灰色关联度分析和数理模型)和系统动力学模型。通过3类模型机理和应用情况的对照分析,总结各自优劣势,并认为具有多情景分析和多方案执行评估能力的神经网络模型将成为未来发展趋势。     

Avoiding the presumptive policy errors of intergovernmental environmental planning programmes: a case analysis of urban stormwater management planning

This social research aims to identify and examine the implementation presumptions of intergovernmental environmental planning programmes and how to improve their effectiveness in future practice. It contrasts and explains the organisational dynamics and implementation responses of municipalities that succeeded and failed in realising the objective of such a programme. The research involved a qualitative multiple-case comparison between four high- and four low-performing municipalities implementing a stormwater programme within metropolitan Sydney, Australia. These two organisational types substantially differed in corporate expertise, environmental leadership, extended relational activity, and overall disposition to learning and ownership of local environmental issues. The paper identified five presumptions underpinning the programme design which privileged the high-performing organisations, but did little to garner commitment and develop capacity among the low-performing group. These implementation insights not only provide guideposts for intergovernmental programme design, but also reveal how policy design can undermine policy intent if empathy to local organisational dynamics is lacking.     

餐厨垃圾干式厌氧消化过程流变特性变化及其对反应器流场的影响

餐厨垃圾的有机组成是影响其干式厌氧消化性能的重要因素。以实际餐厨垃圾为研究对象,通过向其中投加馒头改变其有机组成,进而研究不同有机组成下物料厌氧消化过程中的流变特性变化及产甲烷特性。结果表明,不同有机组成物料的甲烷产气量与其粘度具有一定的负相关关系,表明物料流动性的提高有助于其产甲烷效率的提高。而物料流变特性的差异则主要可归因于TS、VS以及溶解性有机物释放的差异。物料的屈服应力与其TS、VS具有一定的线性相关关系。CFD模拟结果表明,随着厌氧消化的进行,反应器内流场逐渐变好,死区率降低,且死区率与物料TS质量分数、屈服应力及表观粘度呈正相关关系。因此,针对不同有机组成物料流变特性及反应器流场的不同需选取合适的搅拌策略,以实现搅拌效率与搅拌能耗之间的平衡。本研究结果可为优化干式厌氧消化反应器的运行提供参考。