两类常用森林火灾蔓延模型的比较

简要介绍了两类常用的森林火灾蔓延模型--邻接单元模型和波动传播模型的原理和实现方法.对作为离散模型的邻接单元模型和作为连续模型的波动传播模型的优、缺点作了系统的总结,并分析了它们对系统精度、实时性、复杂性、全局适应性、计算可靠性和整个模拟系统结构性能的影响.通过对比发现,两类模型在性能上的优势和局限有很强的互补性.因此,为了提高蔓延模型的性能,并使其不受火行为和地理要素复杂性的限制,有必要取长补短,通过现有的计算机技术将两者结合起来.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

居住区地下车库噪声在建筑群间的传播和影响模拟计算

针对城市居住区2种典型的建筑布局,结合随机点声源模型,对居住区内地下车库噪声影响进行了分析计算.通过实测值和预测值的比较,该预测模型精度较好.运用该模型预测规划与新建的居住区地下车库的噪声的影响,可为城市小区建设规划中有效控制噪声污染提供科学依据.     

One laptop per child,local refurbishment or overseas donations? Sustainability assessment of computer supply scenarios for schools in Colombia

With the intention of bridging the ‘digital divide’ many programmes have been launched to provide computers for educational institutions, ranging from refurbishing second hand computers to delivering low cost new computers. The fast and economical provision of large quantities of equipment is one of the many challenges faced by such programmes. If an increase is to be achieved in the sustainability of computer supplies for schools, not only must equipment be provided, but also suitable training and maintenance delivered. Furthermore, appropriate recycling has to be ensured, so that end-of-life equipment can be dealt with properly. This study has evaluated the suitability of three computer supply scenarios to schools in Colombia: (i) ‘Colombian refurbishment’, -refurbishment of computers donated in Colombia, (ii) ‘Overseas refurbishment’, -import of computers which were donated and refurbished abroad, and (iii) ‘XO Laptop’, -purchase of low cost computers manufactured in Korea. The methods applied were: Material Flow Assessment, -to assess the quantities-, Life Cycle Assessment, -to assess the environmental impacts, and the application of the Multiple Attribute Utility Theory, -to analyse, evaluate and compare different scenarios. The most sustainable solution proved to be the local refurbishment of second hand computers of Colombian origin to an appropriate technical standard. The environmental impacts of such practices need to be evaluated carefully, as second hand appliances have to be maintained, require spare parts and sometimes use more energy than newer equipment. Providing schools with second hand computers from overseas and through programmes such as ‘One Laptop Per Child’ has the disadvantage that the potential for social improvements – such as creation of jobs and local industry involvement – is very low.     

论计算机事故风险

本文提出了计算机事故风险概念，分析了计算机事故风险的成因、特征及其危害。     

USE OF RADAR TO DERWE A STORM INTENSITY-DURATION CURVE1

ABSTRACT: Rainstorms which exceed the design capacity of conveyance systems and cause extensive damage to structures and property, occur frequently in Alberta. After such a severe storm, an early and quick assessment of the storm's location and magnitude and the corresponding frequency for various duration (storm intensity-duration curve) is often required to estimate the damage. The storm intensity-duration curve is produced with information obtained from a sparse network of recording raingages, thus, creating a high degree of uncertainty in the result. Short-duration precipitation is usually quite variable in Alberta; hencea very dense network of recording precipitation stations would be required to provide precise measurements of the storm intensity-duration curve at all locations. Such a dense network does not exist in Alberta; it would be very expensive to install, maintain, and thus difficult to justify financially. One solution for obtaining a large amount of closely spaced in-intensity-duration values is to use weather radar. Using weather radar data, intensity-duration curves could be produced routinely for any set of prespecified locations. The radar data thus have the potential for facilitating the identification of the return period of rainfall events quickly, cheaply, and precisely when the long-term intensity-duration curves are available. As a pilot project to demonstrate the feasibility of the method and the potential of the radar data, computer software was developed to derive from archived radar data, intensity-duration values for up to a 2,500 2 area for a given storm.     

ARCGIS‐SWAT: A GEODATA MODEL AND GIS INTERFACE FOR SWAT1

This paper presents ArcGIS‐SWAT, a geodata model and geographic information system (GIS) interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The ArcGIS‐SWAT data model is a system of geodatabases that store SWAT geographic, numeric, and text input data and results in an organized fashion. Thus, it is proposed that a single and comprehensive geodatabase be used as the repository of a SWAT simulation. The ArcGIS‐SWAT interface uses programming objects that conform to the Component Object Model (COM) design standard, which facilitate the use of functionality of other Windows‐based applications within ArcGIS‐SWAT. In particular, the use of MS Excel and MATLAB functionality for data analysis and visualization of results is demonstrated. Likewise, it is proposed to conduct hydrologic model integration through the sharing of information with a not‐model‐specific hub data model where information common to different models can be stored and from which it can be retrieved. As an example, it is demonstrated how the Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) ‐ a computer application for flood analysis ‐ can use information originally developed by ArcGIS‐SWAT for SWAT. The application of ArcGIS‐SWAT to the Seco Creek watershed in Texas is presented.     

计算机局域网络保密措施

随着计算机的普及 ,局域网络越来越广为利用 ,但也出现了相应的失密问题。本文从信息及实体两个方面 ,论述了局域网络的保密措施。     

交通事故再现技术研究现状与发展趋势

道路交通事故再现不仅是交通事故责任鉴定和原因分析的重要方法,也是交通事故防治的重要内容。在详细介绍国内外事故再现计算机仿真技术的基础上,分析目前事故再现系统开发中事故现场数据采集技术、碰撞前后速度估算的技术、碰撞过程进行模拟的虚拟现实技术的研究现状与存在的问题,提出进一步优化的方向,进而达到完善交通事故模拟再现的目的。最后指出我国交通事故再现技术进一步研究的内容和发展趋势。