基于不同排放清单的长三角人为CO2排放模拟

目前基于排放清单估算的区域和城市尺度上的人为CO₂排放不确定性较大.为了我国实现碳达峰和碳中和的目标,亟需对我国的区域尺度,特别是大城市群的人为CO₂排放进行准确估算.分别利用两种先验人为CO₂排放数据(EDGAR v6.0清单和EDGAR v6.0联合GCG v1.0的改进清单)作为输入数据,采用WRF-STILT大气传输模型模拟长三角地区2017年12月至2018年2月大气CO₂摩尔分数,再以安徽全椒高塔观测的大气CO₂摩尔分数作为参考值,通过贝叶斯反演方法得到的比例因子改进了模拟结果,并实现了长三角人为CO₂排放通量的估算.结果表明：(1)在冬季,相对于基于EDGAR v6.0模拟的大气CO₂摩尔分数值而言,基于改进清单模拟的大气CO₂摩尔分数与观测值更为一致;(2)模拟的大气CO₂摩尔分数在夜间高于观测值,白天则相反,主要因为排放清单的CO₂排放数据不能表征人为...     

陕北矿区典型河流多环芳烃的赋存特征、来源及毒性风险分析

为研究陕北矿区内典型河流窟野河水体中多环芳烃(PAHs)的赋存水平、空间分布、来源和生态风险,采用高效液相色谱-二极管阵列检测器串联荧光检测器法,对研究区水体中59个采样点的16种PAHs进行了定量检测分析.结果表明,窟野河水体中■范围为50.06～278.16 ng·L^-1,平均值为128.22 ng·L^-1;单体浓度范围为0～121.22 ng·L^-1,其中■的检出浓度最高,平均值为36.58 ng·L^-1,其次是苯并[a]蒽和菲;各单体检出率均在70%以上,12种单体的检出率为100%; 59个采样点中4环PAHs的相对丰度较大,占比范围为38.59%～70.85%;各采样点间浓度差异显著,浓度高值点主要集中在矿业活动工业区和人口密集区;与国内外其它河流相比,窟野河水体中PAHs浓度处于中等水平.运用正定矩阵因子分解法(PMF),结合特征比值法,对PAHs的来源种类与来源贡献进行了定量分析,表明窟野河中上游工业区水体中PAHs主要来源于焦化和石油类物质排放(34.67%)、煤炭燃烧(30.62...     

生态工程研究进展

生态工程的概念提出已经有40余年，在其发展过程中，研究的理论、方法不断创新，在近脾的发展趋势中，模型研究以及生态工程评价成为研究的重点，面新技术的应用以及跨尺度的研究已经开始，本文对这些发展趋势进行了总结，并指出生态工程发展过程中仍然存在的不足之处，同时认为生态学理论与传统技术的结台，以及哲学观念的转变将使生态工程前途光明。     

对环境税的一般均衡分析与应用模式探讨

中国的环境污染问题伴随着经济的发展而日趋严重．因此环境问题也成为了我国CGE模型开发者关注的一个焦点。本文利用一个可计算的一般均衡模型模拟了税收改革政策对生产、消费和政府收入所产生的一系列影响。仿真结果说明了对不周行业根据污染的强度不同的税率按产值征税．可以在控制污染行业产量．保护环境的同时．促进整体税制改革，减轻企业的所得税负担和居民的纳税负担。增加政府收入．从数字上说明环境税的“双盈”效应假说是可行的。     

从世界大河流域开发实践构想长江开发模式

通过分析世界大河流域开发的多种模式，研究可遵循的客观规律和存在问题。借鉴其经验教训，探讨充分有效开发长江流域的模式。提出“突出重点，综合利用，高效运作，协调发展”的战略思想，力争把长江流域建成我国的一级经济轴线和世界规模最大的现代化沿江产业带。     

Demographic Consequences of Terrestrial Habitat Loss for Pool‐Breeding Amphibians: Predicting Extinction Risks Associated with Inadequate Size of Buffer Zones

Abstract: Much of the biodiversity associated with isolated wetlands requires aquatic and terrestrial habitat to maintain viable populations. Current federal wetland regulations in the United States do not protect isolated wetlands or extend protection to surrounding terrestrial habitat. Consequently, some land managers, city planners, and policy makers at the state and local levels are making an effort to protect these wetland and neighboring upland habitats. Balancing human land‐use and habitat conservation is challenging, and well‐informed land‐use policy is hindered by a lack of knowledge of the specific risks of varying amounts of habitat loss. Using projections of wood frog (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) populations, we related the amount of high‐quality terrestrial habitat surrounding isolated wetlands to the decline and risk of extinction of local amphibian populations. These simulations showed that current state‐level wetland regulations protecting 30 m or less of surrounding terrestrial habitat are inadequate to support viable populations of pool‐breeding amphibians. We also found that species with different life‐history strategies responded differently to the loss and degradation of terrestrial habitat. The wood frog, with a short life span and high fecundity, was most sensitive to habitat loss and isolation, whereas the longer‐lived spotted salamander with lower fecundity was most sensitive to habitat degradation that lowered adult survival rates. Our model results demonstrate that a high probability of local amphibian population persistence requires sufficient terrestrial habitat, the maintenance of habitat quality, and connectivity among local populations. Our results emphasize the essential role of adequate terrestrial habitat to the maintenance of wetland biodiversity and ecosystem function and offer a means of quantifying the risks associated with terrestrial habitat loss and degradation.     

A CRITICAL REVIEW OF VOLLENWEIDER'S NUTRIENT BUDGET MODEL AND OTHER RELATED MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Early attempts at nutrient budget modeling considered only the case where there was no loss of the material by sedimentation, i.e. the substance was assumed to be conservative. Nonstratified and stratified conditions have both been investigated under these terms. An elegant model, taking into account loss of a substance by sedimentation as well as flushing was presented by Vollenweider in 1969. Although this model has several shortcomings, it is particularly valuable because it can have immediate practical value in terms of water management policy development. These basic shortcomings in the model are analyzed and suggestions are made to alter the model to take these factors into account.     

GROUND WATER SIMULATION USING A ONE DIMENSIONAL FLOW MODEL1

ABSTRACT: In projects involving ground water problems, dependence on the mathematical modeling of the ground water flow phenomena is inescapable. At present, two dimensional flow models, which require tremendous amounts of computer time and storage, are generally used. When such bulky models are used for planning purposes, the two requirements (computer time and storage) can severely limit the number of alternatives that can be considered. A simple quantity and quality simulation model is developed here which requires considerably less computer time and storage and gives reasonably accurate results. The model was applied to simulate a ground water basin in San Luis Rey River in Southern California. The results were compared with those obtained by a USGS model. It was found that the simple model gave results which were consistentaly within five percent of the USGS model results, while the requirements on computer time and storage were drastically reduced.     

鄂尔多斯周缘地震带中长期地震趋势估计

本文基于一定的地震资料,分别应用最大熵原理、贝努里概型以及计算地震复发周期的经验关系式,对鄂尔多斯周缘地震带进行了中强地震的中长期地震趋势估计。     

Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).