POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHANGES IN WATER AVAILABILITY ON AGRICULTURE IN THE TRUCKEE AND CARSON RIVER BASINS,NEVADA, USA1

ABSTRACT: Effects of climate change are likely to be detected in nearly all sectors and regions of the economy, with both winners and losers. One of the consequences of climatic changes could be altered regional water supplies. This paper presents an investigation of regional agricultural implications of changes in water availability. Specifically, using a profit maximization approach, the economic consequences of altered water availability in the Great Basin of Nevada are analyzed in terms of the effects on net returns of agricultural producers. Under the scenarios analyzed in this paper, it is found that with adequate water systems, increase in streamflow and consequent increase in water availability could significantly benefit agricultural producers of this region. Net returns to irrigators could increase by 8 to 13 percent, not taking into account the possibility of changes in crop yields and prices. It is also shown that the benefits from increased water availability are sensitive to likely crop yield and price changes. The potential for adverse effects of climatic changes on water supply is also considered by analyzing the effects of decreased water availability. Under decreased water availability scenarios, farmer net returns decrease substantially.     

COMPROMISE PROGRAMMING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING INSTREAM FLOW UNDER MULTIOBJECTIVE WATER ALLOCATION CRITERIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a quantitative assessment framework for determining the instream flow under multiobjective water allocation criteria. The Range of Variability Approach (RVA) is employed to evaluate the hydrologic alterations caused by flow diversions, and the resulting degrees of alteration for the 32 Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHAs) are integrated as an overall degree of hydrologic alteration. By including this index in the objective function, it is possible to optimize the water allocation scheme using compromise programming to minimize the hydrologic alteration and water supply shortages. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of the Kaoping diversion weir in Taiwan. The results indicate that the current release of 9.5 m³/s as a minimum instream flow does not effectively mitigate the highly altered hydrologic regime. Increasing the instream flow would reduce the overall degree of hydrologic alteration; however, this is achieved at the cost of increasing the water supply shortages. The effects on the optimal instream flow of the weighting factors assigned to water supplies and natural flow variations are also investigated. With equal weighting assigned to the multiple objectives, the optimal instream flow of 26 m³/s leads to a less severely altered hydrologic regime, especially for those low‐flow characteristics, thereby providing a better protection of the riverine environment.     

矿井通风系统优化调节研究

采用"征求专家评议法"和"相对重要性序列法"确定矿井通风系统的评价指标及其权值,并用多级模糊综合评判法对初拟的矿井通风系统改造方案进行解算,按照最大隶属度法确定最优解,找出最优的矿井通风系统改造方案.为便于分析计算,开发了相应的计算机应用程序,实现了智能化、系统化、信息化矿井通风管理,并以协庄煤矿为例进行了实际应用.     

构建新型危险化学品安全管理体制

随着我国经济的快速发展,危险化学品事故频频发生。现行危险化学品安全管理体制存在漏洞是其主要原因。笔者认为现行危险化学品安全管理体制主要存在5个方面不足:管理体制与市场经济体制不符;行业管理未能实现;中介作用没有发挥;工会维权力量薄弱;公众参与严重不足等。为此,建议建立政府、市场和民众相互协调的危险化学品安全管理体制,即“政府监管、市场调节和社会监督”。其中,政府监管包括政府管理和国家监督,市场调节包括企业责任和中介服务,社会监督包括员工维权和公众参与。     

正压气力除灰系统的优化设计

从气力除灰系统的经济性考虑，按照系统运行能耗最省的原则，对系统进行优化设计。以山东临沂电厂除灰系统为例，优化出灰气比、管径、系统压损、耗气量等技术指标。实际运行效果证明这种优化设计方法是可行的，为该系统的推广应用提供了优化设计依据。     

MULTIPURPOSE OPERATION STUDIES OF A CANAL-LAKE-RIVER SYSTEM-OSWEGO RIVER SYSTEM,NEW YORK1

Use of systems analysis techniques for setting up flow regulation rules for the Oswego River System, a canal-river system with eight lakes, was examined. Two sets of lake regulation rules were proposed: the rule curve for each lake, and the lake-use priority curves for all the lakes. The former specifies balanced allocation of the storage in lakes to conservation pools and flood control pools and, the latter determines lakes releases depending upon the type of operation, the time of the year, and systems objectives. A generalized mathematical representation of the complex, multipurpose, multilake river systems operation is described. With appropriate measures of effectiveness and details of analysis, the problem was then solved with simulation and optimization. Use of the results in assisting basin plan formulation is also discussed.     

基于粗糙集——粒子群神经网络的建设项目安全预测研究

回顾施工项目安全管理和安全管理研究现状,建立建设项目安全管理指标体系。利用人工神经网络非线性函数逼近能力,对项目风险因素程度预测。针对该网络当数据量大时,其结构复杂、收敛慢,易陷入局部最优的缺点,引入粗糙集对影响建设项目安全目标的不确定性因素进行约简,找出最小不确定性风险因素集,大大简化网络输入信息的表达空间维数。并结合粒子群算法收敛速度快、全局最优的寻优能力强的优点,建立基于粗糙集——粒子群神经网络的建设项目安全预测系统。通过实例验证该系统的科学性和有效性。     

生态渔业效益综合指标体系的研究

通过对湖北省现行生态渔业系统环境生态结构与功能效益的调查和评价，建立了生态渔业效益综合评价指标体系，为合理培植利用资源，保护生态环境，推进生态渔业经济发展，并对其类型结构不断优化与调控提供了决策参考。     

Violation analysis for solid waste management systems: an interval fuzzy programming approach

This paper introduces a violation analysis approach for the planning of regional solid waste management systems under uncertainty, based on an interval-parameter fuzzy integer programming (IPFIP) model. In this approach, several given levels of tolerable violation for system constraints are permitted. This is realized through a relaxation of the critical constraints using violation variables, such that the model's decision space can be expanded. Thus, solutions from the violation analysis will not necessarily satisfy all of the model's original constraints. Application of the developed methodology to the planning of a waste management system indicates that reasonable solutions can be generated through this approach. Considerable information regarding decisions of facility expansion and waste flow allocation within the waste management system were generated. The modeling results help to generate a number of decision alternatives under various system conditions, allowing for more in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives as well as those between system optimality and reliability.     

COMPUTER-OPTIMIZED STORMWATER TREATMENT (COST) PROGRAM: PHILADELPHIA CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Two computer models, the Continuous Stormwater Pollution Simulation System (CSPSS) and the Computer Optimized Storm-water Treatment Program (COST), were developed to aid in performing water quality planning. This paper describes COST and its site specific applications to the Philadelphia urban area, using the results from an updated CSPSS receiving water simulation. COST provides a planning and conceptual design tool to identify the economically optimum combination of wet weather and dry weather pollution abatement alternatives. Economic analysis procedures incorporated are based on production theory and marginal cost analysis. This study demonstrates that by transforming BOD removal to reduction in low DO events, using CSPSS results, the benefits associated with pollutant removal can be accounted for explicitly by COST simulations. This is important because a pound of BOD removed from combined sewer overflow may be of more benefit to the receiving water than a pound of BOD removed from urban stormwater runoff. The selection of a pollution control strategy is often a difficult decision which should consider social, political, financial, and regulatory factors. It is suggested that such a selection can be based on evaluating the tradeoffs between total annual costs and receiving water improvements, as determined using the COST and CSPSS programs.