THE EFFECT OF PRICE ON LONG RUN WATER SUPPLY BENEFITS AND COSTS1

ABSTRACT The long-term effects of presently used and alternatively proposed water pricing policies were studied using some tools of operations research and economics. A discrete deterministic dynamic programming model was structured and operated to determine the optimal water supply capacity expansion paths for a hypothetical residential community with a given water pricing policy. The objective of the model was the maximization of future discounted consumers'surpluses plus producer's revenues net of the long-run cost of supply. State variables were the size of system capacity in MGD and stage variables were the times of feasible capacity increase in years. Demand curves, population sizes, and growth rates for various economic sectors of the community were assumed known, as well as short-run production and capital construction costs. Several policies, including constant unit rates, decreasing or increasing block rates and summer differential rates were tested. It was concluded that price plays a major role in the short-run allocation and long-run planning and conservation of water supplies. Conservational pricing policies were advocated as means of lowering the long-run cost of water, using the water price-demand function as a planning tool. Further research in these areas was recommended.     

OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF WATER QUALITY CONTROLS IN URBANIZING RIVER BASINS1

ABSTRACT: Urbanizing river basins in the west are encountering serious water quality degradation resulting from the expanded water utilization. In order to avoid aggravating such conditions, water quality controls need to be implemented. The important questions are, therefore, where and how to impose such constraints on the urban and agricultural sectors to achieve the desired level of pollution control. An application of the model developed to address such questions is made in the Utah Lake drainage area of Central Utah as a test of the model's utility. The region is subdivided into five major sub-basins containing both municipal and agricultural water demands. A submodel of each sub-basin is developed which optimizes the water quality control strategies by linking the urban to the agricultural uses and then evaluating the levels of control for each sector. From these results, a cost-effectiveness function for each sub-basin is generated. By jointly considering the cost-effectiveness relationship for each sub-basin, an optimum policy for the entire basin is determined.     

WATER SUPPLY,TREATMENT, DISTRUBTION,AND REUSE OPTIMIZATION IN ARID URBAN AREAS1

ABSTRACT: A Management level model has been formulated in which a system analysis format is employed to answer some of the basic questions regarding urban water management strategies The model incorporates a multilevel optimization scheme to coordinate urban water supply, distribution, and wastewater management. A test of the model's utility is made in an application to the water management problems of the Denver, Colorado metropolitan area. Denver has utilized both agricultural transfers and transmountain diversions to supplement the natural stream resources of the South Platte River. Although plans are being made to increase the capacity of these sources, increasingly stringent standards on the area's effluents are enhancing the feasibility of reclaiming and recycling a portion of the wastewater. The urban model used in this study indicates the decision points at which respective strategies are introduced. However, by formulating the model from a planner's viewpoint, the most important results gained from the analysis are the costs of various institutional constraints which may restrict the decision maker's ability to implement optimal policies.     

OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF ARTIFICIAL AERATION ALONG A POLLUTED STREAM USING DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: When a series of aerators are used to raise the level of dissolved oxygen in a polluted stream through instream artificial aeration augmentation, the system is governed by the basic dissolved oxygen mass balance equation with the existence of artificial aeration as its boundary conditions. A mathematical model is formulated for the optimization of the allocation of aeration capacity to each of the series of aerators subject to a limitation on total available aeration capacity. The objective function is the minimization of the sum of the squares of the aeration costs and the costs incurred by damaging or unnecessarily improving the system. The original constrained allocation problem is simplified by converting it to an unconstrained one via the use of Lagrange multiplier. A discretized dynamic programming algorithm is formulated for finding the optimal allocation policy. A typical optimal aeration capacity allocation policy and its corresponding dissolved oxygen sag profile for the illustrated numerical example is presented, and the relationship between the total available aeration capacity and Lagrange multiplier is also developed treating weighting factors as parameters.     

THE EFFECTS OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT ON ESTUARINE ENVIRONMENTS1

ABSTRACT. The Texas Water Development Board, the principal water resource planning agency of the State, has been conducting extensive estuarine data collection activities and associated research to determine the required quantity and quality of fresh water inflows necessary to maintain various environmental conditions in Texas estuaries to preserve the estuarine ecosystems. These activities are a consequence of a statutory directive to the Board to make provisions in its State Water Plan for the effects of upstream water resource development on the associated estuaries. This paper reports on the results of the first phase of an extensive estuarine research project. The objectives of the research project are to (1) define the interrelationships between estuarine ecosystems and fresh water and nutrient inflows, and (2) develop and test quantitative simulation techniques which describe these relationships. In order to accomplish the first objective, physical and chemical water quality data and biological data on the estuarine ecosystems are being collected, compiled and analyzed. The second objective is being satisfied by the development of hydrodynamic and ecologic simulation models of the estuarine environment.     

GROUND WATER SOLUTE TRANSPORT,OPTIMAL REMEDIATION PLANNING,AND DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: A groundwater quality modeling advisory system has been developed for the U.S. Air Force for use in investigating remediation alternatives for the cleanup of subsurface contamination. The system is capable of accounting for uncertainty, not only in the prediction of solute transport but also in the optimization of the remediation scheme through chance constraints. The system guides users in the selection of appropriate transport models through an algorithm independently tested with machine learning codes. An application to Hill Air Force Base, Utah, is presented for which different pump-and-treat strategies are considered: the results are evaluated in terms of the cumulative distribution of the contaminant concentration for each case and the tradeoff relationship between the cost of remediation and the probability that the remediation strategy exceeds an established maximum allowable contaminant concentration.     

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: A decision support system to determine reservoir releases in an uncertain environment during the dry season was developed. A key characteristic of the decision support system is its recursive procedure that processes observations to obtain the most feasible estimate. The system consists of three components: (1) a hydrologic model; (2) an optimization model, and (3) a fuzzy decision model. This methodology was applied to the operation of the Techi reservoir in central Taiwan. Three criteria (public water supply, irrigation, and hydropower) were taken into account within the operation process. Simulation results show that the decision support system can successfully assist government officials in determining operating policy for the Techi reservoir during the dry season. Also, the system is simple enough to lead to a rapid transfer of theoretical knowledge into practice.     

QUANTIFICATION FOR VISUALIZATION OF TIME TREND1

ABSTRACT: A method for quantifying fluctuations in time-series data was developed and tested to aid the process of visualization. The methodology is based on free-form sliding polynomials and identifies (a) short-period variability about the mean value, (b) a long-term trend or cycle, and (c) random errors residual to these two structured components. Consistent results were obtained for designed synthetic data and natural data from seven sites in Georgia. Statistics of fit of the analytical model for the natural data were not significant on a site-by-site basis. An unexpected finding for the study was obtained when the statistical results for the seven data sets for temperature were pooled. The smoothing model yielded consistent long-term trends even though the individual station results were not significant. Also, the correlation coefficients, while low, showed a statistically significant trend toward higher values toward the northwest and away from the Georgia coast line. This study thus supports the concept that multiple-site, and regionally based, analyses are necessary for the detection of trends. Secondarily, such consistency of results strengthens the conclusion that the proposed smoothing method is an effective procedure in the presence of varying amounts of random content in the natural data sets.     

基于COMSOL的采空区埋管抽采参数优化数值研究

针对回采工作面上隅角瓦斯浓度超限问题,提出了回采工作面采空区埋管抽采的方法。以保德煤矿81307工作面为研究对象,运用数值模拟软件COMSOL模拟采空区无抽采和不同抽采参数条件下工作面内瓦斯分布规律,研究埋管抽采参数对上隅角瓦斯浓度的影响规律,确定最佳的采空区埋管抽采参数。同时进行现场抽采参数优化试验,对瓦斯浓度进行监测,研究结果表明:合适的布置间距、抽采负压和抽采流量能够有效解决上隅角瓦斯超限问题,试验期间内,上隅角瓦斯体积分数最大为0.74%,进风流中瓦斯体积分数最大为0.2%,工作面风流中瓦斯体积分数最大为0.45%,回风流中瓦斯体积分数最大为0.5%,均没有超过安全标准。     

基于元胞自动机的复杂建筑物中人员逃生模型研究

针对复杂建筑物中人群安全疏散问题,在原有的元胞自动机行人流模型基础上,利用不同人员行进速度、不同方向行进速度的差异以及疏散连续性等特征优化该模型,使其在模拟逃生规律和疏散时间方面更加合理、可靠。通过多组人群行进速度测定试验,利用曲线拟合方法,获取不同属性人群向不同高度的台阶行进的速度,并制定台阶等级划分规则,优化人员速度计算方法,结合累积位移量,构建复杂建筑元胞自动机模型。利用Matlab软件建立原有疏散模型及复杂建筑元胞自动机模型,分别模拟某海豚表演馆疏散情况。结果表明,复杂建筑元胞自动机模型的模拟数据与实际演习数据相比,在疏散总时间方面存在5%~8%相对偏差,相比原有疏散模型,在模拟复杂建筑疏散问题中更具说服力。