Risk evaluation of natural disasters based on connection function

There are many uncertain factors,such as stochastic,fuzzy and gray information in the risk analysis on natural hazard.The set pair analysis(SPA)deals effectively with the various uncertain factors contributing to evaluation of the risk level of natural disasters.The evaluation indicators and standards of natural disasters risk are analyzed by identity-discrepancycontrary(IDC).The result,the connection numbers,still has uncertainty information.Thus,yielding the risk evaluation model of natural disasters based on connection function,which construct a set pair relation between the indicators of connection numbers and comprehensive evaluation standards,and describe uncertainty of the connection numbers by using connection function.The study showed that the proposed model takes into account only the uncertainty of risk evaluation indicator identification on natural disasters,also the uncertainty of result connection numbers.This approach gives full consideration to the uncertainty of systematic evaluation process along with the actual meaning of comprehensive evaluation functions.Therefore,this means it is able to reduce the uncertainty of final evaluation results and improve the accuracy and reasonability of evaluation results.This model is capable of reflecting actual situation of the risk evaluation on natural disaster affected by various uncertain factors and has a promotional value in the natural disaster risk assessment.     

基于MODIS的鄱阳湖湿地植被变化及其对水位的响应研究

针对鄱阳湖水情变化如何影响湖区湿地植被生长过程的问题,在鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区内的蚌湖-吴城生态断面上,选取3个梯度分布MODIS像元样点,基于2001~2010年MODIS 增强型植被指数（EVI）时间序列,分析了近10 a来退水期植被生长动态变化过程;结合星子站水位资料,探讨了鄱阳湖退水期水位变化对湿地植被生长的影响。结果表明：各样点EVI年内均值表现为先上升后下降的单峰特征,多年平均值在10月份最大,高程越高的样点其EVI达到年最大值的时间越早;不同水位持续长短及其起讫时期影响植被的生长变化,EVI均值与生长期的拟合优度（075）高于最大值与生长期的拟合优度（049）;样点每提前出露10 d,EVI均值约升高002,[JP3]二者相关性R2达到055。研究结果对湖区植被资源管理以及湖泊水位调控效应研究等具有积极的参考意义     

Mapping out the design opportunities: pathways of sustainable behaviour

To advance the area of design for sustainable behaviour (DfSB), a common behaviour terminology is needed to enable comparisons of studies across application areas. Thus, the map of pathways of sustainable behaviour was created with the aim of charting different paths that users can follow to reduce environmental impact when interacting with artefacts. The construction of the map results from a comparative analysis of sustainable behaviours identified in previous studies in conjunction with a review of existing behaviour classifications. The proposed map of pathways gives a comprehensive overview of all artefact-related resource-consuming usage behaviours, organised according to a design perspective and divided with regard to aspects of use and obtainment, primary and secondary artefact, duration and type of effort. Through design, the user can be encouraged to take any of the five identified paths: choice of artefact, changed use, maintenance and repair, mediated use and regulated artefact. Using the map in a DfSB process can guide the exploration phase and highlight potential design opportunities when choosing target behaviour. If adopted by the DfSB community, the united typology of the map also provides means necessary to make rigorous comparisons and develop the field and its tools.     

SIL评估及HAZOP分析技术在海洋平台安全评估中的应用

针对海洋平台安全仪表系统安全可靠性要求的提高,分析海洋平台安全仪表系统SIL评估及HAZOP分析方法,对SIL评估的必要性、目的和内容、方法与流程进行论述,对SIL等级选择的HAZOP和LOPA分析方法进行介绍,对SIL评估过程中的重要数据问题进行阐述,对SIL等级验证中各参数和失效数据的选取进行说明。通过案例进一步论述SIL评估及HAZOP分析技术的要点和实施步骤,针对该案例提出了提高SIL等级的建议和措施,为海洋平台安全仪表系统的SIL评估提供重要的参考和依据。     

河北省构建低碳消费模式的法律途径研究

构建低碳消费模式,法律规制十分必要。河北省低碳消费法律规制步伐虽然已启动,但依然面临着缺乏统一法律体系,对企业相应行为规制和保障不力,对消费者低碳消费关注不够以及执法和司法体制不健全等诸多问题。在此背景下,为在河北省构建低碳消费模式,笔者借鉴国外先进做法,提出了在立法层面上构建统一的低碳消费法律体系,将消费者的环境权利和环境义务纳入法律框架;执法层面上完善执法机构,加强执法力度,健全执法机制,加大宣传力度;司法层面上提高认识,完善机构,健全司法程序;社会层面上在政府引导下,要求企业、非政府组织及消费者个人广泛参与的法律对策。     

Understanding climate,adapting to change: indigenous cultural values and climate change impacts in North Queensland

Many authors have suggested that Indigenous communities are especially vulnerable to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change, yet there remains a paucity of fine-grained geographic data on the particular impacts of climate change on specific places and on local communities, especially Australian Indigenous communities. While there are some recent studies being undertaken with Australia's Torres Strait Island people, our research takes up the issues of vulnerability and resilience with two Indigenous communities from different environments on the mainland in North Queensland. They are the Aboriginal peoples of the rainforest and reef environments of the Wet Tropics and the Aboriginal people of the discontiguous rainforest, grasslands, dry forests and marine environments of Cape York. The results demonstrate variability in their understandings of climate change and in their capacities to anticipate and manage its impacts, while at the same time illustrating some common held themes about environmental and cultural values, observed environmental change, attributions of cause and effect, and of climate in general.     

基于超声透射特性的密闭容器液位测量与装置设计*

针对金属密闭容器内液体液位测量问题,设计1种基于超声透射特性的非接触式液位测量装置。测量装置根据被测容器内液体介质与气体介质透射系数不同的原理,通过超声接收探头回波情况判断容器内液体位置,利用软件与硬件结合,调整超声发射探头与接收探头的放大倍数,实现对不同材料、厚度容器内液位的测量。测量装置可以将所测液位、容器倾斜程度等数据通过上位机、阿里云平台等多方位显示。研究结果表明:该测量装置可测量不同材料、厚度密闭容器内承装液体的液位,所测数据较为稳定,测量误差范围不大于3 mm。     

景区级别与日历效应比较研究——以新疆吐鲁番4景区为例

日历效应是旅游活动在年内变化的时间节律,主要体现在季节效应、节日效应和周末效应。基于景区级别—旅游客流量模型,收集新疆吐鲁番4景区连续3年的逐日客流量数据,通过构建3个指数模型测算效应值,以分析景区级别与日历效应之间的关系。结果发现:吐鲁番旅游淡旺季特别明显,景区级别越高,淡旺季差异越大;五一和国庆节日效应最高,景区级别越低,节日效应越显著,长假期有明显的节前和节后效应;周末效应有明显的季节性差异,周六效应高于周日效应,景区级别越低,周末效应越高。最后,从气候变化、节假日制度和作息制度探讨了旅游日历效应的成因。     

城市轨道交通地下段引起居民室内振动的频谱特性分析

为了解城市轨道交通引起建筑物室内振动的特征及变化规律,对轨道交通沿线建筑物一层室内环境进行振动测量,将监测数据进行频谱分析并与国内标准比较。结果表明:采用《城市区域环境振动标准》(GB 10070—1988)中的限值评价室内振动,即使最大Z振级测量结果达标,居民的主观烦恼度依然较高;室内振动的1/3倍频程模式下,频谱主峰对应频率并不固定,一般为40、50、63、80 Hz;车辆运行高峰段和平峰段对居民室内振动频谱的谱型没有改变,载重大和车次密的高峰段不会带来振级总量和各分频量值的显著增加;近轨和远轨产生室内振动,其特征频谱谱型相同,量值上近轨大,远轨小;采用振级增量能够更准确地描述城市轨道交通对居民室内的振动影响。国内标准比较发现:各标准振动频谱考察范围不一致,测量指标和测量方法多样,评价结果也不一致,因此亟须修订相关标准,统一评价量,以满足城市轨道交通规划防治需求。     

基于地理探测器的镇域尺度土壤重金属含量空间分异及其影响因素分析

为揭示镇域尺度规模土壤重金属含量的空间分异及其影响因素,以成都平原腹心地带某镇为研究区域,采集788份表层土壤样品,利用地累积指数法对土壤Cd、Hg、As、Cu、Pb、Cr、Zn和Ni的污染进行评价,基于地理探测器,以土壤性质、地形和距离等15种因子为自变量,各重金属含量为因变量,探析土壤重金属含量的空间分异及其影响因素.结果表明,研究区土壤Hg、As、Pb、Cr、Cu、Ni和Zn含量平均值是成都市土壤背景值的1.06~1.93倍,Cd含量低于背景值;除Hg呈现轻度污染外,其余7种重金属处于清洁状态.8种重金属空间分布存在显著差异,且各重金属间存在显著相关性,并与土壤性质存在显著相关性.因子探测发现,总磷（TP）、总钾（TK）、pH、总有机碳（TOC）、高程和距铁路距离对8种重金属含量的解释力最显著.交互作用探测发现,土壤性质与其他因子交互作用是重金属空间分异的最主要影响因素,高程、距住宅区距离、距铁路距离和距工业用地距离也是重要影响因子.风险探测发现,Hg在高程和距铁路距离的子区域的差异最显著,其余7种重金属在土壤性质影响因子子区域的差异最显著.镇域尺度规模土壤重金属的空间分布差异显著,这与研究区的土壤性质、地形和人类活动密切相关.