我国建筑碳排放核算及影响因素研究综述

为给研究建筑领域节能减碳提供参考,简要介绍了碳排放核算的一般性方法,重点阐述了微观单体建筑碳排放和宏观层面建筑物化和运行碳排放核算模型方法的特点以及研究现状,分析了3类主要模型方法(IPAT系列模型、指数分解分析方法和结构分解分析方法)的优缺点及应用情况,并聚焦于建筑领域,综述了建筑碳排放影响因素研究的几个关键问题,即研究范围、研究方法和关键影响因素。最后,从建筑碳排放的核算范围、核算方法、影响因素等方面进行了展望,指出现有研究的不足和未来研究的方向。     

Analysis of the Impacts of Nongovernmental Economy on Nonagricultural Employment Growth in China

The importance of solving the employment problems by nongovernmental economy in China has aroused the concern of many scholars widely. However, few literatures could be found to deal with the impacts on nonagricultural employment growth in China by nongovernmental economy from several levels such as the whole nation, urban and rural. Based on the research accessed on the relationships between nongovernmental economy and employment, the impacts of the development of nongovernmental economy on non-agricultural employment growth in China are emphasized in this paper. Taking time series data of non-agricultural employment in China＇s different economy types in 1992-2005 as study objects, by establishing econometric regression models, some meaningful points are found as follows, the impacts of nongovernmental economy on the nonagricultural employment in either national or urban-rural level are rather significant although their impacts＇ degrees are different. Based on the research findings above, some countermeasures are proposed to accelerate the nongovernmental economic development and improve its ability to absorb nonagricultural employment.     

Cost-Effective Control of Ground-Level Ozone Pollution in and around Beijing

Abstract

Ground level ozone pollution has become a significant air pollution problem in Beijing. Because of the complex way in which ozone is formed, it is difficult for policy makers to identify optimal control options on a cost-effective basis. This paper identifies and assesses a range of options for addressing this problem. We apply the Ambient Least Cost Model and compare the economic costs of control options, then recommend the most effective sequence to realize pollution control at the lowest cost. The study finds that installing of Stage II gasoline vapor recovery system at Beijing’s 1446 gasoline stations would be the most cost-effective option. Overall, options to reduce ozone pollution by cutting vehicular emissions are much more cost-effective than options to “clean up” coal-fired power plants.     

北京和上海市居民冬夏两季饮用水消费习惯

饮用水是人体暴露于有毒物质的重要暴露源,为了定量描述饮用水中污染物对暴露人群所造成的危害,世界各国的科学家们对饮用水的健康风险评价做了大量的研究.通常,健康风险评价需要污染物毒理学数据和暴露人群的暴露剂量数据.目前,针对很多的有毒污染物,国际上已经建立了应用于健康风险评价的毒理学数据库,同时积累了大量可用的有效数据.而对于暴露人群的暴露剂量数据,则是健康风险评价所要研究的重点.正确估计暴露人群的暴露剂量需要消费者提供大量的消费信息.例如,暴露人群每天消费的饮用水水量.美国环保局(EPA)认为成人每天消耗的饮用水水量为2L·d-1,此外,饮用水的消耗量会随着暴露人群的身体活动状况和所处环境状况(温度,湿度等)的改变而改变.目前,许多研究都是关于饮用水消费信息的,总体来讲这些研究结果基本上与美国环保局所采用的饮水消耗数据相一致.需要说明的是中国居民有完全不同于西方人的饮用水消费方式,如果在进行中国居民饮用水健康风险评价过程中应用美国环保局的假设会带来较大的不确定性.饮用水健康风险评价工作在我国开展并不多,尤其缺少中国居民饮用水消费习惯的数据库.这些客观条件使得在我国进行饮用水健康风险评价时只能从基础做起,积累有效的数据.本研究以北京和上海两座城市居民为研究对象,2002年到2004年分冬夏两季分别进行了4次饮用水消费习惯调查.研究采用随机入户方式(2004年至2005年),与中央电视台-索福瑞联合调查有限公司合作进行.参加调查的家庭从中央电视台入户收视率调查的基础数据库中随机抽取,在抽取过程中兼顾了不同城区、年龄结构、知识结构、收入水平等因素.研究表明,北京和上海居民冬夏两季的日均饮水量分别为2.2L·d-1、1.7L·d-1、2.0L·d-1和1.8L·d-1,这一结果和美国环保局的假设基本一致.同时本研究考察了性别、年龄、职业和季节对应用水消费习惯的影响.研究表明,日均饮水量随年龄的增加有增加的趋势,这一趋势在北京的夏季调查中趋势明显(p=0.01);男性的日均饮用水量大于女性,在上海冬季和夏季调查中均存在显著的差异(冬季:p=0.01;夏季:p=0.04);季节也同样影响被访者的日均饮水量,但是在4次调查中均未发现显著性差异.在北京冬季和夏季的调查中均发现了工作地点对饮用水消费习惯的显著影响(夏季p=0.01和冬季p=0.00).研究同样考察了居民饮用水消费类型,调查结果表明,煮沸后的自来水是中国居民最主要的日常饮品(上海夏季:58.3%;上海冬季67.9%;北京夏季:42.7%;北京冬季:60.0%).同时消费桶装纯净水的被访者也占有相当的比重(上海夏季:36.2%;上海冬季:24.7%;北京夏季:30.7%;北京冬季:60.0%).研究同时表明,在中国居民的日常生活中牛奶和豆奶已经成为重要的日常饮品.极少量的居民(北京夏季:10.7%;北京冬季5.7%;上海夏季1.2%;上海冬季0.6%)有直接饮用自来水的习惯.研究表明滞留水(在自来水水管中滞留6h以上的自来水)是对人体健康影响最大的水,而在我们的调查中,中国居民几乎不直接饮用滞留水.当前,饮用水健康风险评价在世界范围内蓬勃展开,但是这一技术在我国还处于起步阶段.本研究作为饮用水健康风险评价的前期工作,为其在中国的进一步发展提供了基础性的数据.     

国内废钢行业概况及废钢价格关联因素的量化研究

介绍了"十五"和"十一五"时期国内废钢行业发展概况,重点阐述废钢行业的回收供应以及消耗情况,并对影响废钢价格的因素进行数学建模,对关联程度大小进行量化,对更好地分析废钢市场走势有较好的指导意义。     

Energy-efficient modification of reduction-melting for lead recovery from cathode ray tube funnel glass

Lead can be recovered from funnel glass of waste cathode ray tubes via reduction melting. While low-temperature melting is necessary for reduced energy consumption, previously proposed methods required high melting temperatures (1400 °C) for the reduction melting. In this study, the reduction melting of the funnel glass was performed at 900–1000 °C using a lab-scale reactor with varying concentrations of Na₂CO₃ at different melting temperatures and melting times. The optimum Na₂CO₃ dosage and melting temperature for efficient lead recovery was 0.5 g per 1 g of the funnel glass and 1000 °C respectively. By the reduction melting with the mentioned conditions, 92% of the lead in the funnel glass was recovered in 60 min. However, further lead recovery was difficult because the rate of the lead recovery decreased as with the recovery of increasing quantity of the lead from the glass. Thus, the lead remaining in the glass after the reduction melting was extracted with 1 M HCl, and the lead recovery improved to 98%.     

Risk evaluation of natural disasters based on connection function

There are many uncertain factors,such as stochastic,fuzzy and gray information in the risk analysis on natural hazard.The set pair analysis(SPA)deals effectively with the various uncertain factors contributing to evaluation of the risk level of natural disasters.The evaluation indicators and standards of natural disasters risk are analyzed by identity-discrepancycontrary(IDC).The result,the connection numbers,still has uncertainty information.Thus,yielding the risk evaluation model of natural disasters based on connection function,which construct a set pair relation between the indicators of connection numbers and comprehensive evaluation standards,and describe uncertainty of the connection numbers by using connection function.The study showed that the proposed model takes into account only the uncertainty of risk evaluation indicator identification on natural disasters,also the uncertainty of result connection numbers.This approach gives full consideration to the uncertainty of systematic evaluation process along with the actual meaning of comprehensive evaluation functions.Therefore,this means it is able to reduce the uncertainty of final evaluation results and improve the accuracy and reasonability of evaluation results.This model is capable of reflecting actual situation of the risk evaluation on natural disaster affected by various uncertain factors and has a promotional value in the natural disaster risk assessment.     

基于MODIS的鄱阳湖湿地植被变化及其对水位的响应研究

针对鄱阳湖水情变化如何影响湖区湿地植被生长过程的问题,在鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区内的蚌湖-吴城生态断面上,选取3个梯度分布MODIS像元样点,基于2001~2010年MODIS 增强型植被指数（EVI）时间序列,分析了近10 a来退水期植被生长动态变化过程;结合星子站水位资料,探讨了鄱阳湖退水期水位变化对湿地植被生长的影响。结果表明：各样点EVI年内均值表现为先上升后下降的单峰特征,多年平均值在10月份最大,高程越高的样点其EVI达到年最大值的时间越早;不同水位持续长短及其起讫时期影响植被的生长变化,EVI均值与生长期的拟合优度（075）高于最大值与生长期的拟合优度（049）;样点每提前出露10 d,EVI均值约升高002,[JP3]二者相关性R2达到055。研究结果对湖区植被资源管理以及湖泊水位调控效应研究等具有积极的参考意义     

Mapping out the design opportunities: pathways of sustainable behaviour

To advance the area of design for sustainable behaviour (DfSB), a common behaviour terminology is needed to enable comparisons of studies across application areas. Thus, the map of pathways of sustainable behaviour was created with the aim of charting different paths that users can follow to reduce environmental impact when interacting with artefacts. The construction of the map results from a comparative analysis of sustainable behaviours identified in previous studies in conjunction with a review of existing behaviour classifications. The proposed map of pathways gives a comprehensive overview of all artefact-related resource-consuming usage behaviours, organised according to a design perspective and divided with regard to aspects of use and obtainment, primary and secondary artefact, duration and type of effort. Through design, the user can be encouraged to take any of the five identified paths: choice of artefact, changed use, maintenance and repair, mediated use and regulated artefact. Using the map in a DfSB process can guide the exploration phase and highlight potential design opportunities when choosing target behaviour. If adopted by the DfSB community, the united typology of the map also provides means necessary to make rigorous comparisons and develop the field and its tools.     

SIL评估及HAZOP分析技术在海洋平台安全评估中的应用

针对海洋平台安全仪表系统安全可靠性要求的提高,分析海洋平台安全仪表系统SIL评估及HAZOP分析方法,对SIL评估的必要性、目的和内容、方法与流程进行论述,对SIL等级选择的HAZOP和LOPA分析方法进行介绍,对SIL评估过程中的重要数据问题进行阐述,对SIL等级验证中各参数和失效数据的选取进行说明。通过案例进一步论述SIL评估及HAZOP分析技术的要点和实施步骤,针对该案例提出了提高SIL等级的建议和措施,为海洋平台安全仪表系统的SIL评估提供重要的参考和依据。