An intelligent disaster decision support system for increasing the sustainability of transport networks

The increase in extreme weather events arising from climate change is posing serious threats to the sustainability of transport systems, creating the need for improved tools for decision support for more effectively managing natural disasters. There are numerous transport‐related decisions that are required during the response, recovery and preparedness stages of the disaster management cycle. This paper describes the development and application of the Intelligent Disaster Decision Support System (IDDSS), which provides a platform for integrating a vast range of road network, traffic, geographic, economic and meteorological data, as well as dynamic disaster and transport models. Initial applications to the response and planning for floods and fires are presented to illustrate some of its capabilities. The IDDSS can be used to improve disaster management, which in turn will increase the sustainability of transport networks.     

Transport risk modeling for hazardous chemical transport Companies—A case study in China

Traffic accidents of hazardous chemical transport vehicles strongly correlate with the operation and management level of road transport companies. An accurate risk assessment of these transport companies will play a critical role in improving their management and supervision and in turn the overall safety of roadways, property, and most importantly people's lives. Therefore, this study constructs a logistic regression scorecard model to evaluate transport risk of hazardous chemical transport companies and evaluates it using a case study in China. This study first selected 16 indicators from the dimensions of driver behaviors, driving performance, dangerous goods and company business operation to construct company user portraits. Next, a K-means++ algorithm was used to cluster the data samples of the companies on a monthly basis. On this basis, a scorecard was constructed based on a logistic regression scorecard model to realize and visualize the monthly risk portrait of companies. The constructed scorecard predicted transport risk of companies accurately. The results show that the more complex the types of dangerous goods transported, the higher the risk value of the company in the dangerous goods index. Moreover, for transport companies, the driver behaviors and driving performance on their trips are closely related to their business risk. In a practical application, the proposed scorecard can realize the dynamic risk monitoring of transport companies and enable managers and supervision departments to clarify where the risk is from. The transport companies can also carry out safety training and rectification for drivers and operations to reduce the occurrence of hazardous materials-related traffic accidents.     

京津冀污染物跨界输送通量模拟

发展了关键影响因子加权人为源分配方法(WKIF),增添了依赖于气象条件和下垫面类型的生物源,动态更新了气象场和浓度场的边界条件.然后利用WRF-CAMx模式定量给出了四季北京、天津和河北大气边界层中PM2.5、O3、CO、SO2、NO2和NO跨界输送通量和北京净输入或输出通量.结果表明WKIF方法合理反映了中小城市人为源的空间分布特征,模式重要输入参量、初值与边界条件的改进显著改善了WRF-CAMx模式对京津冀地区6个观测站点近地面NOx、O3和PM2.5浓度的模拟.北京向天津冬、春季主要通过西北方向,夏、秋季主要经过偏西方向输入NO、NO2、SO2、CO、O3、PM2.5,输送通量夏季均最小,冬季均最大,且四季北京向天津输入的CO、O3、PM2.5通量显著高于NO、NO2、SO2通量.河北的污染物冬、春季主要通过西北方向,夏季主要经由偏南方向,秋季主要途径偏西方向进入北京;四季北京向河北输入NO和NO2,但跨界输送通量小于20t·d-1;四季河北向北京输入的CO、O3、PM2.5通量远高于北京向河北输送的NO、NO2通量,明显大于北京向河北输送的SO2通量,且河北向北京输入CO、O3、PM2.5通量夏季均最小,冬季均最大;四季北京大气边界层中NO、NO2、SO2最大净输出通量小于50t.d-1,CO、O3、PM2.5净输入或输出通量分别为111～2309、567～6244、715～1778t·d-1.这些定量结果为京津冀区域污染源调控对策的制定提供了科学依据.     

离子强度对蒙脱石胶体在饱和多孔介质中运移与释放的影响

胶体在介质中的沉积和释放过程直接影响污染物的迁移和固定能力,本文以蒙脱石胶体作为主要实验材料,通过室内模拟实验,研究了不同离子强度条件下,蒙脱石胶体在多孔介质中的迁移和释放规律.结果表明:溶液离子强度的变化,会强烈影响蒙脱石胶体的运移及释放过程,随着溶液离子强度的增加,胶体在多孔介质中的沉积量增大,而当降低溶液的离子强度,又会使沉积在多孔介质中的胶体得以释放,并且离子强度改变次数越多,胶体的释放总量越大.     

水培条件下油白菜对Pb、Cd吸收和转运的影响

采用水培实验和室内分析相结合的方法,研究了不同含量Pb、Cd单一和复合污染对金属Pb、Cd吸收和转运的影响。结果表明,Pb和Cd主要在油白菜的根部富集;Cd和Pb不同添加量与油白菜体内累积量之间呈显著正相关。复合污染处理中,油白菜地上部的转运系数BCFCd随外源Pb含量的增大而增加,而根部则相反,即BCFCd随外源Pb含量的增大而降低,说明外源Pb可以促进油白菜对Cd在叶片中的富集,但会抑制Cd在根中的富集;油白菜地上部的BCFPb随外源Cd含量的增大而降低,而根部则相反,即BCFPb随外源Cd含量的增大而增加,说明外源Cd可以促进油白菜对Pb在根中的富集,但会抑制Pb在叶片的富集,Cd对Pb的富集具有双重作用;高含量的Pb(≥500 mg/L)会促进油白菜根部的Cd向地上部转运,而高含量Cd会抑制油白菜根部的Pb向地上部转运,使得更多的Pb滞留在油白菜地下部。     

大气传输路径对上甸子本底站气溶胶光学特性的影响

利用2005~2010年北京上甸子本底站的PM2.5浓度、气溶胶散射系数(σsp)的连续观测资料,结合后向轨迹分析方法,探讨了不同季节、不同气团传输路径对本底地区气溶胶光学特性的影响.结果表明,污染物水平不仅与气团来向有关,也与气团的运动状态有关.偏南气团路径下的PM2.5浓度和σsp整体高于偏北气团路径,同时运动速度较慢、高度较低的气团路径多对应较高的PM2.5浓度和σsp.春、夏、秋季来自华北平原地区以及冬季来自华北区域北部的慢速、低气团对上甸子的污染水平有重要贡献.沙尘气溶胶多出现在春季,平均气溶胶质量散射效率(αsp)为0.78 m2·g-1.四季平均人为污染气溶胶的αsp为4.00 m2·g-1,其中冬季最高,春季最低.对于人为污染气溶胶来说,春、夏、秋三季的西北偏西路径、偏南路径以及偏北路径中速度较慢的轨迹组均具有较高的αsp(4.0 m2·g-1),表明这些气团路径受人为排放活动影响较大,而冬季各路径的αsp均较高,说明冬季区域内人为排放的影响比较一致.春、夏、秋三季中其他偏北的气团路径主要受到人为污染与沙尘气溶胶的共同影响.     

Interannual variability of carbon cycle implied by a 2-d atmospheric transport model

A 2-dimensional atmospheric transport model is deployed in asimplified CO2 inverse study. Calculated carbon flux distribution for the interval from 1981 to 1997 confirms the existence of a terrestrial carbon sink in mid-high latitude area of North Hemisphere. Strong interannual variability exists in carbon flux patterns, implying a possible link with ENSO and other natural episodes such as Pinatubo volcano eruption in 1991. Mechanism of this possible link was investigated with statistic method. Correlation analysis indicated that in North Hemisphere, climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation, to some extend, could influence the carbon cycle process of land and ocean, thus cause considerable change in carbon flux distribution. In addition, correlation study also demonstrated the possible important role of Asian terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle.     

A Regional Modeling Framework of Phosphorus Sources and Transport in Streams of the Southeastern United States1

García, Ana María, Anne B. Hoos, and Silvia Terziotti, 2011. A Regional Modeling Framework of Phosphorus Sources and Transport in Streams of the Southeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):991‐1010. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00517.x Abstract: We applied the SPARROW model to estimate phosphorus transport from catchments to stream reaches and subsequent delivery to major receiving water bodies in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). We show that six source variables and five land‐to‐water transport variables are significant (p < 0.05) in explaining 67% of the variability in long‐term log‐transformed mean annual phosphorus yields. Three land‐to‐water variables are a subset of landscape characteristics that have been used as transport factors in phosphorus indices developed by state agencies and are identified through experimental research as influencing land‐to‐water phosphorus transport at field and plot scales. Two land‐to‐water variables – soil organic matter and soil pH – are associated with phosphorus sorption, a significant finding given that most state‐developed phosphorus indices do not explicitly contain variables for sorption processes. Our findings for Southeastern U.S. streams emphasize the importance of accounting for phosphorus present in the soil profile to predict attainable instream water quality. Regional estimates of phosphorus associated with soil‐parent rock were highly significant in explaining instream phosphorus yield variability. Model predictions associate 31% of phosphorus delivered to receiving water bodies to geology and the highest total phosphorus yields in the Southeast were catchments with already high background levels that have been impacted by human activity.     

14C-氯氰菊酯农药在“微宇”环境中的迁移、归宿

本文在“微宇”环境中研究~(14)C-氯氰菊酯在玉米-土壤-土壤动物相间的质量平衡、吸收、结合残留、迁移和转化规律。实验结果表明,植物通过根部从土壤中吸收少量氯氰菊酯,并通过叶脉输导,但向上输导能力差,无内吸作用。它在土壤中性质较稳定,被动、植物吸收的药剂,在植物体内主要转化为结合态;在动物中则主要为代谢作用。它在土壤中以酯链断裂为主要降解路线,其次为4′-位置上羟化,再经土壤甲基化作用生成4′-甲氧基代谢物。     

深海压力–流速耦合环境下基于灰色系统理论的有机涂层寿命预测研究

目的 建立深海压力–流速耦合环境下有机涂层的寿命预测模型,并预测有机涂层在该环境下的服役寿命。方法 首先针对涂层的湿态附着力变化结果,基于灰色系统理论,建立湿态附着力的GM(1,1)模型。随后再基于耦合环境下的试验结果,建立涂层水传输的扩散模型。最后,在此基础上,利用灰色关联分析方法,计算这2种失效影响因素在涂层失效过程中所占的权重因子,并基于这2个影响因素建立涂层失效的数学模型。结果 经过数学统计验证和试验结果对比验证,该模型精度良好,可靠性高。结论 该模型能够对深海压力–流速耦合环境下有机涂层的寿命进行准确预测。