基于人类动力学的地震压埋人员先验在室率研究

破坏性地震发生后,科学、有效地评估地震压埋人员压埋情况,是有序地开展应急救援工作的基础。人员在室率作为压埋率评估模型的主要参数之一,目前主要以作息时间区为基础以省或市为基础单元进行计算,这难以体现基础单元之下的不同市或县人员在室率之间的差异性。为解决这一问题,采用人类动力学相关原理,运用极大似然法估算人员在室率,进而形成基于人类动力学的地震压埋人员压埋率预估模型。最后以汶川8.0级地震部分受灾学校为例,进行压埋率实际评估和模型误差分析。研究表明:提出的微观在室率能更准确地反映人员在室情况具有更好的适用性;在实际评估中模型精度达到±0.13,表明模型能达到较好的预估效果,能为震后应急救援工作提供一定的参考。     

CFD simulation of pool fires situated at differing elevation

When two or more pool fires happen to burn so close to each other that they interact, they are termed ‘multiple pool fires’ (MPF). Past accident analysis reveals that MPFs occur quite frequently in chemical process industries. Controlled experiments done so far to study MPFs have indicated that MPFs lead to increase in the fuel burning rate, flame height and heat release rate (HRR) but the nature and the extent of the impacts of different factors on these manifestations is as yet poorly understood. In this context computational fluid dynamics (CFD) appears to be a tool which can enable more detailed and realistic simulation of MPFs than other possible approaches, especially due to its ability to closely approximate the underlying physical phenomena. In tank farms there are situations where different storage tanks are placed at different elevations yet close to each other. If such tanks happen to catch fire, the resulting fires may influence each other in a manner that may be a function of the difference in the tanks’ elevation. However no CFD study has been carried out which addresses this type of situation. Hence an attempt has been made to employ CFD to study MPFs involving two pools with fuel surfaces are at different elevations. Results reveal that good correlation is possible between the experimental findings and the CFD simulations.     

中水回用对城市给排水的影响研究——以常州市为例

水资源短缺是影响城市可持续发展的主要限制因子之一。污水回用是解决城市水危机的重要途径。目前中国的中水回用水平较低,提高污水回用水平对水资源的可持续利用和水环境保护具有重要意义。以常州市为例,全面分析了城市经济社会发展对水资源的作用机制,构建了城市水资源开发利用的系统动力学模型,设置不同中水回用情景,比较不同情景对城市水资源供给状况、水环境状况和社会影响。结果表明：如果维持现状中水回用规模不变,常州市未来将出现供水短缺,至2020年缺水量达到2.49亿m3,同时污水排放量达到14.97亿m3;如果中水回用率逐步提高到20%和40%,用水和排污总量将得到有效控制,但仍会持续增长;如果2020年中水回用率达到60%,常州市的用水和排水规模将维持不变,实现供排水的总量平衡。三种提高回用率的控制方案对地区生产总值的影响均低于0.1%,具有较高的经济可行性,研究成果可为常州市未来水资源利用和水环境保护规划的制定提供借鉴和指导。     

基于SD的污水处理厂减排潜力与费用效益——以昆明市为例

针对当前城市污水处理厂进水浓度偏低,进而影响其污水处理潜力发挥和经济效益等问题,以昆明市为例,构建了基于系统动力学的城市排水系统模拟仿真模型.依据昆明市“十三五”规划目标,以2015年为基准年,设计4种减排情景,模拟预测了不同时期下不同情景的污水处理厂减排潜力及费用效益.结果表明：城市排水管网改造与强化管理对提高污水处理厂运行效率,充分挖掘其污水处理潜力至关重要,该情景近期与远期污水处理厂COD削减量较基准情景分别提高了314772,389126t;NH₃-N削减量较基准情景分别提高24223,27234t;费效比较基准情景分别降低0.2和0.17,污水处理潜力得到充分挖掘,经济效益明显改善.     

Integrating Landscape and Metapopulation Modeling Approaches: Viability of the Sharp-Tailed Grouse in a Dynamic Landscape

Abstract:  The lack of management experience at the landscape scale and the limited feasibility of experiments at this scale have increased the use of scenario modeling to analyze the effects of different management actions on focal species. However, current modeling approaches are poorly suited for the analysis of viability in dynamic landscapes. Demographic (e.g., metapopulation) models of species living in these landscapes do not incorporate the variability in spatial patterns of early successional habitats, and landscape models have not been linked to population viability models. We link a landscape model to a metapopulation model and demonstrate the use of this model by analyzing the effect of forest management options on the viability of the Sharp-tailed Grouse (  Tympanuchus phasianellus ) in the Pine Barrens region of northwestern Wisconsin (U.S.A.). This approach allows viability analysis based on landscape dynamics brought about by processes such as succession, disturbances, and silviculture. The landscape component of the model (LANDIS) predicts forest landscape dynamics in the form of a time series of raster maps. We combined these maps into a time series of patch structures, which formed the dynamic spatial structure of the metapopulation component (RAMAS). Our results showed that the viability of Sharp-tailed Grouse was sensitive to landscape dynamics and demographic variables such as fecundity and mortality. Ignoring the landscape dynamics gave overly optimistic results, and results based only on landscape dynamics (ignoring demography) lead to a different ranking of the management options than the ranking based on the more realistic model incorporating both landscape and demographic dynamics. Thus, models of species in dynamic landscapes must consider habitat and population dynamics simultaneously.     

A tool for estimating the contribution of water-soluble organic compounds to the particle mass and condensational growth in the atmosphere

In this theoretical investigation, we elucidated several factors governing the ability of organic, water-soluble vapours to participate into either the secondary organic aerosol formation or particle condensational growth in the atmosphere. The corresponding requirements for physico-chemical properties of the vapour were estimated. These estimates were also compared with the properties of several difunctional carboxylic acids identified in the atmosphere. Our analysis indicates that while many of the considered compounds are expected to contribute to the total particle mass in the atmosphere, their role in particle condensational growth process remains uncertain. This uncertainty emerges from the fact that the saturation ratio of an organic vapour does not alone determine its ability to act as a “nonvolatile” compound. Instead, the hygroscopic and chemical properties of the vapour, as well as the particle pH and size, have also to be taken into account.     

Fluid Mechanics of Serpentine Flow Fields on a Porous Media

Laminar flows are investigated in single and double parallel serpentine channels mounted on a porous media and it is found that significant convective transport occurs in porous media for practical fuel cell conditions. This transport increases with increasing flow Reynolds number, with decreasing land width, and most significantly with increasing channel length.

Increasing the number of parallel channels significantly decreases the pressure drop across the fuel cell, but also significantly decreases the magnitude of convective transport in the porous media. Increased parasitic loads must be put in the context of the change in electrochemical performance.

This paper presents both data and a methodology for beginning to think about flow field design from a hydrodynamic perspective.     

基于热爆炸理论的煤燃点确定及动力学分析

为准确判断煤燃点,提高煤自燃灾害防治能力,依据热爆炸理论,结合煤自燃过程放热曲线,将煤自燃升温过程中微分热流曲线上第1处极小值点作为煤的燃点,计算煤着火前后放热过程动力学参数变化.结果表明:随升温速率增加,煤自燃反应放热过程逐渐向高温区域移动,煤燃点逐渐增大,反应的活化能逐渐减小;同一升温速率下燃点之后煤的活化能增大;...     

An empirical analysis of surface acting in intra‐organizational relationships

Prior research analyzing surface acting—employees' regulation of emotional expressions—has mostly focused on the interactions between front‐line employees and their customers in service industries and paid very little attention to intra‐organizational relationships. With an aim to shed light on this important yet relatively unexplored area, I developed a theoretical model analyzing the antecedents and outcomes of surface acting within organizations, by drawing on the sociometer theory and self‐presentation theory frameworks. To test the model, I conducted a cross‐level field study in a sample of 65 work groups and 478 employees in two organizations, located in a large city in Northern California. I have collected the data from two sources, including employees and their supervisors who rated their performance. Results indicated that employees were more likely to engage in surface acting when their affective traits and personal goals were less congruent with work environment. Surface acting was also positively related to perceived organizational politics and self‐monitoring. As for outcomes, surface acting was positively related to emotional exhaustion and negatively to performance. I discuss limitations, implications, and future research direction. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigations into the influence of dustiness on dust explosions

A new safety characteristic the “dustiness” according to VDI 2263 – part 9 (Verein Deutscher Ingenieure, 2008) is investigated. Dustiness means the tendency of a dust to form clouds. The paper deals with the influence of the dustiness on vented dust explosions. In order to look into the effects of the dustiness on dust cloud formation and explosion properties experiments and simulations in a vertical dust dispersion glass tube apparatus were carried out.Preliminary explosion experiments showed that the dustiness has an influence on the reduced explosion pressure in a vented 75 L test apparatus. Dusts with comparable p_max and K_St values and different dustiness were tested. Dusts with higher dustiness produced higher overpressures, despite comparable safety characteristics. In order to verify the results for applications in the process industries further tests with different settings are planned as well as industrial scale experiments. Characteristics of the dust such as particle size, density, specific surface area and particle shape, which influence the dispersibility, have been determined experimentally.The Euler/Lagrange and the Euler/Euler approaches are compared for simulating an exemplary dust/air mixture. Especially sedimentation and the ability of the approaches to simulate the tendency of dust to stay airborne were investigated. The Euler/Lagrange approach is better suited for simulating local dust concentrations, particle size distributions and particle forces. It could be used to point out regions of high dust concentrations in a vessel. With the Euler/Euler method it is possible to achieve fast solutions for one specified diameter, but the simulated dust/air mixtures are always more homogenous than in reality. ANSYS CFX version 13 was used in all simulations.