火灾中人员的行为及其模拟计算方法的研究

在综合分析国内外人员疏散模型和模拟软件发展现状的基础上,研究人员在火灾中的行为理论、计算机模型、模拟原理等,并介绍了目前国际上研究人员行为方面综合功能较强的Building EXODUS软件的原理和特点,最后以具体实例说明了Building EXODUS软件在人群疏散模拟分析中的具体应用.研究表明,1)在不考虑其他因素的影响下,疏散总时间与人数成正比;2)在火灾等紧急情况下,当某个出口不能通行时,可能会使大量人员在另一个出口处造成"瓶颈"现象,因此,增加备用安全出口很重要;3)疏散时间实际上是一随机变量,会因各种情况的变化而不同,如在很大程度上受人员特性(如年龄等因素)的影响,传统计算方法一般会低估疏散时间而不能作为建筑疏散设计的依据;4)利用计算机模拟软件可以对火灾中各种可能发生的情况进行评价,评价结果比传统方法更科学、可信.火灾中人员行为的研究需要从心理学和社会学角度建立人群中个人行为与社会行为的理论框架,而疏散模拟是一个由多个因素组成的复杂系统,大量人群环境的模拟需要涉及人与人、人与环境间的相互作用.     

石化企业伤亡事故率的系统动力学仿真

针对石化企业伤亡事故率的复杂性和与企业运行的系统相关性,为了科学地预测伤亡事故率,提出了利用系统动力学对石化企业伤亡事故率进行仿真试验的方法.在对石化企业伤亡事故率进行了系统动力学分析之后,建立了石化企业伤亡事故率系统动力学仿真模型,对某石化企业进行了仿真试验,并分析了仿真试验的结果.试验应用表明,利用系统动力学对石化企业伤亡事故率进行仿真是科学有效的.     

化工生产装置活性危害评估

活性危害的评估由理论筛选,热稳定性的实验筛选,动力学参数的检测装置,紧急排放系统的设计、筛选和放大,过程设计和优化等几个部分组成.     

综放工作面覆岩破坏特征及裂隙演化相似模拟试验研究

针对煤层开采后常出现矿压显现剧烈、煤岩透气性增大和地表下沉等问题,利用二维相似模拟试验研究综放工作面覆岩破坏特征并通过分形理论表征裂隙演化规律.试验结果表明:煤层基本顶初次来压步距为78 m,周期来压步距为24 m;煤层采动裂隙发育,距煤层顶板超过35 m;煤层开采后形成的覆岩裂隙具有分形特征,其分形维数随工作面的推进...     

Development of Future Generations： Oriented Virtual Negotiation Support System for Intergenerational Conflict

Intergenerational conflict coordination is the fundamental requirement and core of sustainable development. In this paper, through the analysis of the future generations-oriented management mechanisms for intergenerational conflict, the idea of mechanisms and institution building for the coordination and management of intergenerational conflict is put forward. Furthermore, the future generations-oriented virtual negotiation support system （NSS） for intergenerational conflict is developed, built on the analysis of the process simulation of intergenerational wealth transfer, intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, and strategies for the mitigation and avoidance of intergenerational conflict, through the application of advanced IT technology. The virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict is helpful to the practical application of the sustainable development theory; on the other hand, it can be applied directly to the intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, national economic accounting, formulation of sustainable development strategies and other urgent national economic and social development issues. Finally, the sustainable development theory can be enriched and extended. Therefore, the development of the future generations-oriented virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict has certain theoretical and practical effects on the theory of sustainable development.     

CENTRIFUGE MODELING OF ONE-DIMENSIONAL SUBSURFACE CONTAMINATION1

ABSTRACT: One-dimensional contaminant transport through a saturated soil is modeled using a 1.2-m radius geotechnical centrifuge. Small-scale physical modeling in the centrifuge is achieved in relatively short time, at stress distributions that are similar to those experienced in the prototype (actual site). A 0.05 mol/l of sodium chloride solution is used as a contaminant and conductivity cells measure the concentration of the contaminant throughout the porous medium. Scaling analysis for centrifuge modeling and 1-g modeling are briefly discussed and it is concluded that centrifuge modeling simulates the effect of molecular diffusion; however, scaling of the effect of mechanical dispersion may be violated in the centrifuge if the interstitial fluid velocity is high. Centrifuge test results show good agreement with the predicted relationship between the coefficient of hydrodynamic dispersion and the Peclet number using column tests. Centrifuge modeling can be used as a complement of numerical modeling although the effect of mechanical dispersion may be overestimated in the former.     

基于可拓学的尾矿库安全评价

为综合评价尾矿库的安全状态,基于尾矿库灾变机理和大量工程实践构建了一套包括3级指标、22个因素的评价指标体系,并确定了评价指标的等级量值区间。采用EAHP和熵权法结合的方式确定指标权重,基于可拓理论评价尾矿库的安全等级。以湖南黄金集团责任有限公司旗下的7座尾矿库为案例,评价其安全状态,根据蒙特卡洛模拟基本理论,基于Crystal Ball对案例进行敏感性分析,找出具体敏感因素,为后期尾矿库安全管理提供简单有效的控制方法。     

OFF-LINE STORMWATER DETENTION SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: This paper looks at the use of off-line detention systems as a means of stormwater management. Conventional detention basins are typically designed and built as in-line systems in which all runoff is directed to the basin. Off-line systems are designed so that only a portion of the runoff is directed to the basin. Several simulation experiments were run to examine the behavior of in-line and off-line systems designed to reduce the peak flow from a developed area to the pre-development level. The results demonstrate that off-line systems require considerably less storage than in-line systems to achieve the same management goal. The results also show that off-line and in-line systems have significantly different flow-duration characteristics with the off-line system generally producing lower flows over longer periods. Unfortunately, off-line systems may exacerbate downstream flooding problems, especially when used in the upper portions of a watershed. Nevertheless, an off-line system can be an alternative to in-line detention in many cases.     

Numerical parametric study of a new earth-air heat exchanger configuration designed for hot and arid climates

ABSTRACT

Thermal potential for cooling and heating can be achieved by new configuration of earth–air heat exchanger (EAHE). This paper presents a numerical investigation of thermal performance of a spiral-shaped configuration of EAHE intended for the summer cooling in hot and arid regions of Algeria. A commercial finite volume software (ANSYS FLUENT) has been used to carry out the transient three-dimensional simulations and the obtained results have been validated using the experimental and numerical data obtained from the literature. The agreement between our simulation results and those from literature is very satisfactory. A parametric analysis of the new geometry of (EAHE) has been performed to investigate the effect of pitch, depth, pipe length and of the flow velocity on the outlet air temperature and the EAHE’s mean efficiency as well as its coefficient of performance (COP). It has been shown that when the pitch space varies between 0.2 and 2 m the difference of outlet air temperature increases by 6 ^°C. When the air velocity increases from 2 to 5 m/s the mean efficiency decreases from 60 % to 33 % and the COP of the EAHE decreases from 2.84 to 0.46.     

EFFECTS OF SIMULATED CLOUD SEEDING ON STREAMFLOW OF SELECTED WATERSHEDS IN PENNSYLVANIA1

A mathematical model was developed to simulate the hydrologic behavior of five small watersheds in central Pennsylvania. Continuous hydrographs for the 6-month period, April to September 1964, were simulated. Synthesized rainfall cycles consisting of increasing rainfall by 10, 20, and 30 percent to simulate the effects of cloud seeding were processed through the watershed model to determine the effects on low flow augmentation. Other rainfall cycles used consisted of increasing every third storm by 30 percent and of developing a rainfall cycle by processing daily radiosonde data through a mathematical cumulus cloud model to obtain a prediction of rainfall following seeding. A comparison of actual and predicted hydrographs indicated that simulated cloud seeding resulted in significant monthly and seasonal water yields. In general, the results of the study appear to indicate that on a theoretical basis cloud seeding would be a feasible method of augmenting low stream-flow during the summer months on watersheds in the northern Appalachian region.