1990-2015年世界能源时空演变特征研究

能源系统是从能源开采、能源生产到能源运输,再到终端消费或储备全过程的系统工程.能源在区域之间的运输促进了世界能源网络的形成,随着时间推移和各种外部因素的变化,能源空间格局也随着发生剧烈的变化.基于1990-2015年195个国家能源生产消费数据和贸易矩阵,采用双因子趋势图法和社会网络分析法分析世界能源生产、消费与运输的时空演变特征.结果表明:①世界能源的生产主要分布在中东、亚太、前苏联、北美、中南美和西北非,原油、天然气和煤炭的空间格局也存在差异.②世界能源消费增长存在波动,高消费量高增长率的区域分布在亚太和新兴经济体,欧洲能源消费放缓,北美、日本、俄罗斯消费出现负增长趋势.③从世界能源运输来看,能源出口集中在前苏联、中东、西北非和中南美地区,能源进口集中在亚太及欧美地区;世界能源运输整体流动性增强,中东和北非局部时期存在波动;能源生产国外向中心性不断攀升,亚太和新兴经济体内向中心性增长最快;形成“核心-次核心-节点”的层级结构,欧洲地位下降,亚太作用增强,多元化趋势显现;能源运输存在8条主要路径.④经济增长、政治局势、国家关系以及能源开发技术都对世界能源时空格局产生重大影响,各国也纷纷通过能源来源多样化、双多边合作、能源战略储备、新能源开发保证自身能源安全.随着页岩油气开发技术、新能源技术的发展普及,尤其是煤炭消费在世界范围的放缓锐减,未来世界能源空间格局也即将发生重大调整.     

An approach to improve the Austrian Radon Potential Map by Bayesian statistics

A Radon Potential Map as well as a mean indoor Radon Concentration Map is available from the Austrian National Radon Project (1992-2002). These maps are based on the average Radon Potential/Concentration within every municipality and they sort municipalities into three radon ‘risk’ classes. This is a convenient way for the administration, but it does not describe the real radon risk distribution within a municipality because of the often inhomogeneous geological situation. Therefore, a combination of indoor radon data with all relevant parameters such as house type, storey and ventilation rates along with geological information should be used to improve the existing radon maps. The method, described here, uses Bayes' theory to combine the Radon Potential derived from indoor radon measurements with information from geology. The existing Radon Potential Map was improved by using available soil gas radon data at certain geological units and extrapolated transfer factors. The modifications of the map are shown and several problems arising with the application of this technique are discussed.     

Creating a larger role for environmental psychology: The Reasonable Person Model as an integrative framework

We argue that the environment, broadly construed, has a profound effect on human cognition, action, and well-being. If this is true, then the field of environmental psychology has a far larger potential to aid humanity than is generally realized. We suggest that the field would be more likely to achieve this potential if it viewed environments from the perspective of human informational needs, and focused on environmental/informational patterns that have the potential to make it easier for people to help themselves. Further, achieving such benefits could be greatly enhanced by taking advantage of the many opportunities available for collaborating with researchers in other areas of psychology. The reasonable person model is offered as a perspective that could facilitate moving in these various new directions while taking advantage of the considerable existent knowledge about human–environment interactions that is currently underappreciated.     

Identification of process operating state with operational map in municipal wastewater treatment plant

This work was performed to develop an operational map for the objective diagnosis of the process operating states of a municipal wastewater treatment plant, for which multivariate statistical analysis techniques were applied. PCA (principal component analysis) was used to reduce the dimension of the data sets obtained from the field municipal wastewater treatment plant. A K-means clustering analysis was used to classify the group according to the property of the process operating state. A Fisher's linear discriminant analysis was used to derive the discriminant function of each classified group. An operational map was developed by scatter-plotting the derived principal components (PCs) on a two-dimensional coordinate according to the classified groups. Using the new data sets not used for developing the operational map, the practical usefulness of the operational map and discriminant function in diagnosing the process operating state were evaluated. Hence, the process operating state could be easily and quickly diagnosed and the dynamic trend of the process operating state was also able to be estimated using the operational map.     

Remote sensing water observation for supporting Lake Victoria weed management

This paper aims to assess the suitability of remote sensing for enhancing the management of water body resources and for providing an inexpensive way to gather, on a wide area, weed infestation extent and optical parameter linked to the water body status. Remotely sensed satellite images and ancillary ground true data were used to produce land cover maps, trough classification techniques, and water compounds maps, applying radiative transfer models. The study proposed within the framework of the cooperation between Italian Foreign Affair Ministry (through the University of Rome) and Kenyan Authorities has been carried out on the Kenyan part of the Lake Victoria. This lake is one of the largest freshwater bodies of the world where, over the last few years environmental challenges and human impact have perturbed the ecological balance affecting the biodiversity. The objective of this research study is to define the thematic products, retrievable from satellite images, like weed abundance maps and water compound concentrations. These products, if provided with an appropriate time frequency, are useful to identify the preconditions for the occurrence of hazard events like abnormal macrophyte proliferation and to develop an up-to-date decision support system devoted to an apprised territory, environment and resource management.     

重庆市碳排放现状及低碳经济发展战略研究

低碳经济以低能耗、低污染、低排放为基础,是当今世界减缓温室气体排放、应对气候变化的最佳经济发展模式。本文初步估算了重庆市包括二氧化碳排放总量、人均排放量、万元GDP排放强度等碳排放现状,分析了近年来全市碳排放减缓的趋势以及二氧化碳排放来源解析的结果,探讨了重庆市低碳发展的良好基础,提出了重庆市发展低碳经济的战略取向、战略目标、战略重点和战略措施建议,描绘了重庆市低碳发展的行动路线图,认为低碳经济是重庆市转变经济发展方式、实现可持续发展的必然选择。     

Heat map visualization of complex environmental and biomarker measurements

Over the past decade, the assessment of human systems interactions with the environment has permeated all phases of environmental and public health research. We are invoking lessons learned from the broad discipline of Systems Biology research that focuses primarily on molecular and cellular networks and adapting these concepts to Systems Exposure Science which focuses on interpreting the linkage from environmental measurements and biomonitoring to the expression of biological parameters. A primary tool of systems biology is the visualization of complex genomic and proteomic data using “heat maps” which are rectangular color coded arrays indicating the intensity (or amount) of the dependent variable. Heat maps are flexible in that both the x-axis and y-axis can be arranged to explore a particular hypothesis and allow a fast overview of data with a third quantitative dimension captured as different colors. We are now adapting these tools for interpreting cumulative and aggregate environmental exposure measurements as well as the results from human biomonitoring of biological media including blood, breath and urine. This article uses existing EPA measurements of environmental and biomarker concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to demonstrate the value of the heat map approach for hypothesis development and to link back to stochastic and mixed effects models that were originally used to assess study results.     

Recent Changes in Soil Total Phosphorus in the Everglades: Water Conservation Area 3

We assessed recent changes in the distribution of soil total phosphorus (TP) in Water Conservation Area 3 (WCA-3) of the Everglades. Soil cores were collected in 1992 and 2003 at 176 sites. To reflect hydrologic boundaries within the system, WCA-3 was divided into three zones (3AN, 3AS, and 3B). Total P was mapped on both a mass (TPm) and a volumetric basis (TPv) to determine if spatial distributions varied depending on the choice of units. Interpolated maps for both years showed that the highest levels of TPm were located in 3AN and in boundary areas of all zones that received surface water inputs of P from canals. Increases in TPm were greatest in central 3AN in an area adjacent to the Miami Canal that received inputs from a water control structure. Interpolated maps for TPv illustrated that a hotspot present in 1992 had disappeared by 2003. The highest levels of TPv in 2003 were located in northwestern 3AN, a region of WCA-3 that has been chronically overdrained and burned in 1999. From 1992 to 2003, increases in TPm were observed for 53% of the area of WCA-3, while only 16% of WCA-3 exhibited increases in TPv. In 1992, approximately 21% of WCA-3 had TPm concentrations in the 0–10 cm layer >500 mg kg⁻¹, indicating P enrichment beyond historic levels. Eleven years later, 30% of the area of WCA-3 had TPm >500 mg kg⁻¹. This indicated that during this period, the area of WCA-3 with enriched TPm concentrations increased about one % year⁻¹.     

A geostatistical approach for mapping thematic classification accuracy and evaluating the impact of inaccurate spatial data on ecological model predictions

Spatial information in the form of geographical information system coverages and remotely sensed imagery is increasingly used in ecological modeling. Examples include maps of land cover type from which ecologically relevant properties, such as biomass or leaf area index, are derived. Spatial information, however, is not error-free: acquisition and processing errors, as well as the complexity of the physical processes involved, make remotely sensed data imperfect measurements of ecological attributes. It is therefore important to first assess the accuracy of the spatial information being used and then evaluate the impact of such inaccurate information on ecological model predictions. In this paper, the role of geostatistics for mapping thematic classification accuracy through integration of abundant image-derived (soft) and sparse higher accuracy (hard) class labels is presented. Such assessment leads to local indices of map quality, which can be used for guiding additional ground surveys. Stochastic simulation is proposed for generating multiple alternative realizations (maps) of the spatial distribution of the higher accuracy class labels over the study area. All simulated realizations are consistent with the available pieces of information (hard and soft labels) up to their validated level of accuracy. The simulated alternative class label representations can be used for assessing joint spatial accuracy, i.e., classification accuracy regarding entire spatial features read from the thematic map. Such realizations can also serve as input parameters to spatially explicit ecological models; the resulting distribution of ecological responses provides a model of uncertainty regarding the ecological model prediction. A case study illustrates the generation of alternative land cover maps for a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) subscene, and the subsequent construction of local map quality indices. Simulated land cover maps are then input into a biogeochemical model for assessing uncertainty regarding net primary production (NPP).     

北上台风生成和路径的卫星云图特征研究

对在太平洋上北上转向登陆日本的台风的生成和移动,利用卫星云图分析和云顶黑体温度计算作了研究。得出结论认为如果有一条或几条长达500～1000km以上的长云带卷入,且云顶黑体温度降低到-70℃以下,而-60℃的范围扩大到3×4个纬距以上,则热带低压很可能在24h以内发展成为热带风暴－台风。本文还确认,海表面温度Tss≥29℃是台风生成最重要的环境条件。通过对北上台风移动的卫星云图特征的研究,指出台风外围卷入的长云带走向往往预示着台风的未来移向。尤其是台风南部来自SW-S-SE方向的季风汇合带云带,不仅意味着台风强度的加强和维持,更预示着台风将往北移动。