Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction

A key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100–1000 times pre‐human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard‐bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification—the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over‐ and under‐estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre‐human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05–0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher. Estimación de la Tasa Normal de Extinción de Especies     

The effects on waste reduction and recycling rates when different components of the waste stream are counted

States differ in the components or solid waste management activities which they include when determining solid waste reduction and recycling rates. Thus, when attempting to draw comparisons among states, confusion arises in two ways: (1) use of two types of rates; and (2) use of different components or activities when calculating a given rate. This paper presents a mathematical basis for understanding the impacts on rate calculations when variations occur in the components and activities included in those calculations. Estimates of the incremental changes occurring in the rate calculations when incineration or selected components such as yard waste, construction and demolition wastes, and junked automobiles, are added to a base of municipal solid waste constituents are found using national data. Finally, the achieved rates reported by states counting different combinations are compared.     

Monoterpene emissions and carbonyl compound air concentrations during the blooming period of rape (Brassica napus)

An increasing percentage of agricultural land in Germany is used for oil seed plants. Hence, rape has become an important agricultural plant (in Saxony 1998: 12% of the farmland) in the recent years. During flowering of rape along with intensive radiation and high temperatures, a higher production and emission of biogenic VOC was observed. The emissions of terpenes were determined and more importantly, high concentrations of organic carbonyl compounds were observed during this field experiment. All measurements of interest have been carried out during two selected days with optimal weather conditions. It is found that the origin or the mechanism of formation of different group of compounds had strong influence on the day to day variation of their concentrations. The emission flux of terpenes from flowering rape plants was determined to be 16–32 μg h⁻¹ m⁻² (30–60 ng h⁻¹ per g dry plant––540–1080 ng h⁻¹ per plant), in total. Limonene, α-thujene and sabinene were the most important compounds (about 60% of total terpenes). For limonene and sabinene reference emission rates (M_S) and temperature coefficients were determined: β_limonene=0.108 K⁻¹ and M_S=14.57 μg h⁻¹ m⁻²; β_sabinene=0.095 K⁻¹ and M_S=5.39 μg h⁻¹ m⁻².The detected carbonyl compound concentrations were unexpectedly high (maximum formaldehyde concentration was 18.1 ppbv and 3.4 ppbv for butyraldehyde) for an open field. Possible reasons for these concentrations are the combination of primary emission from the plants induced by high temperature and high ozone stress, the secondary formation from biogenically and advected anthropogenically emitted VOC at high radiation intensities and furthered by the low wind speeds at this time.     

基于LEAP模型的临港新片区中长期碳排放预测及减排潜力分析

基于上海临港新片区现有统计数据,结合其未来社会经济发展、产业结构和技术进步等,构建了LEAP-临港模型,分析了基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景下新片区的能源需求和碳排放演化趋势.为增强模型的预测精准度,采用Logistic人口生长模型对临港未来人口数据进行预测,并利用学习曲线模型模拟相关减碳技术的成本发展趋势.同时,构建了碳减排技术的经济性评价模型,通过绘制边际减排成本曲线对典型减碳技术的经济成本及减排潜力进行评估.结果表明,强化低碳情景下,2060年临港新片区一次能源消费中可再生能源占比达69%,电能在终端能源需求中占比达91%;临港新片区可在2030年实现碳达峰,且2060年碳排放量相较基准情景下降94%.就减排贡献度而言,清洁能源替代、产业结构优化和终端能效提升对临港碳减排起到关键作用,中期（至2035年）分别贡献35.1%、27.3%和16.2%的碳减排量,长期（至2060年）分别贡献50.6%、8.75%和7.7%的碳减排量.就具体减碳技术而言,氢能发电、电解水制氢及碳捕获和利用与封存（CCUS）技术对实现净零排放意义重大,但减排成本相对较高.研究成果可为临港及相关地区的低碳绿色发展提供思路和借鉴.     

乌鲁木齐城市地表温度时空变化与贡献度研究

伴随着新疆首府乌鲁木齐市经济快速发展,人口持续增加、城市化进程不断加快,地表温度也发生极其显著的变化.以乌鲁木齐市中心城区为研究对象,利用1990—2018年的4期Landsat卫星影像和中国科学院土地利用/覆被分类数据,采用地表温度反演、重心转移模型、空间聚类分析以及计算贡献度指数等方法,定量研究乌鲁木齐市城市化进程...     

Encounter rate and task allocation in harvester ants

As conditions change, social insect colonies adjust the numbers of workers engaged in various tasks, such as foraging and nest work. This process of task allocation operates without central control; individuals respond to simple, local cues. This study investigates one such cue, the pattern of an ant's interactions with other workers. We examined how an ant's tendency to perform midden work, carrying objects to and sorting the refuse pile of the colony, is related to the recent history of the ant's brief antennal contacts, in laboratory colonies of the red harvester ant, Pogonomyrmex barbatus. The probability that an ant performed midden work was related to its recent interactions in two ways. First, the time an ant spent performing midden work was positively correlated with the number of midden workers that ant had met while it was away from the midden. Second, ants engaged in a task other than midden work were more likely to begin to do midden work when their rate of encounter per minute with midden workers was high. Cues based on interaction rate may enable ants to respond to changes in worker numbers even though ants cannot count or assess total numbers engaged in a task. Received: 1 July 1998 / Accepted: 15 November 1998     

Parental investment, potential reproductive rates, and mating system in the strawberry dart-poison frog, Dendrobates pumilio

We studied the effect of relative parental investment on potential reproductive rates (PRRs) to explain sex differences in selectivity and competition in the dart-poison frog Dendrobates pumilio. We recorded the reproductive behavior of this species in a Costa Rican lowland rainforest for almost 6 months. Females spent more time on parental care than males, and `time out' estimates suggest that PRRs of males are much higher than than those of females, rendering females the limiting sex in the mating process. Males defended territories that provide suitable calling sites, space for courtship and oviposition, and prevent interference by competitors. Male mating success was highly variable, from 0 to 12 matings, and was significantly correlated with calling activity and average perch height, but was independent of body size and weight. Estimates of opportunity for sexual selection and variation in male mating success are given. The mating system is polygamous: males and females mated several times with different mates. Females were more selective than males and may sample males between matings. The discrepancy in PRRs between the sexes due to differences in parental investment and the prolonged breeding season is sufficient to explain the observed mating pattern i.e., selective females, high variance in male mating success, and the considerable opportunity for sexual selection. Received: 9 June 1998 / Received in revised form: 27 March 1999 / Accepted: 3 April 1999     

北京市发展CNG汽车的条件与前景分析

北京市汽车排放污染物贡献率已达到：HC73.5％，CO63．4％，NOx46％。用CNG代替汽油作汽车燃料，可使CO减少97％、HC减少72％、NOx减少39％、CO2减少24％、SO2减少90％。建立CNG加气站和CNG汽车改装这两个CNG应用关键问题在技术上、经济上都是可行的。北京市CNG燃料来源有保障。北京市车辆都比较适合使用CNG气体燃料。北京有很强的CNG汽车产业科技力量。对北京市当前发展CNG汽车产业提出了一些建议。     

黄金周对休闲产业的贡献与冲击

我国自1999年开始实施旅游黄金周政策以来,出现了前所未有的假日旅游热,与旅游相关的休闲产业也得到了迅速的发展．扩大了内需,刺激了经济的增长．初步形成了以旅游为主导的假日经济,成为我国社会经济文化的一个新现象,也使人民开始了各种新颖的休闲方式．然而在推动休闲产业迅速发展的同时也暴露出许多问题引起了各方的关注．当前,我国的休假制度做出了重大改革,取消了“五一”黄金周,继而出现了一系列的黄金短假期．该文主要分析了黄金周对休闲产业的贡献与冲击,提出了我国发展休闲产业可采取的一些对策。参5．     

Connectivity or demography: Defining sources and sinks in coral reef fish metapopulations

The identity of an individual patch as a source or a sink within a metapopulation is a function of its ability to produce individuals and to disperse them to other patches. In marine systems patch identity is very often defined by dispersal ability alone—upstream patches are sources—while issues of variable habitat quality (which affects local production) are ignored. This can have important ramifications for the science of marine reserve siting. This study develops a spatially explicit source–sink metapopulation model for reef fish and uses it to evaluate the relative importance of connectivity versus demography and how this depends upon the level of local larval retention and the strength of density-dependent recruitment. Elasticity analyses indicated that patch contribution (source or sink) was more sensitive to demographic parameters (particularly survival) than connectivity and this effect was conserved even under strong levels of density-dependence and was generally strengthened as local retention increased. Variability in the relationship between parameter elasticity and local retention was shown to be dependent upon the magnitude of connectivity for an individual patch relative to a critical connectivity value. The proportion of larvae lost due to transport processes was an important parameter which directly affected the magnitude of this critical connectivity value. Patches with connectivity values less than the critical value contributed to the metapopulation largely via production (i.e., local demographics most important). As local retention increased, so did the importance of demographic parameters in these patches. Patches with connectivity values greater than the critical value contributed largely via dispersal of larvae and thus the importance of local demographics decreased as local retention increased.