Effectiveness of Voluntary Conservation Agreements: Case Study of Endangered Whales and Commercial Whale Watching

Abstract: The use of voluntary approaches to achieve conservation goals is becoming increasingly popular. Nevertheless, few researchers have quantitatively evaluated their efficacy. In 1998 industry, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations established a voluntary conservation program for whale watching in the northeast region of the United States, with the intent to avoid collisions with and harassment of endangered whales by commercial and recreational whale‐watching vessels. One important aspect of the program was the establishment of 3 speed zones within specific distances of whales. We wanted to determine the level of compliance with this aspect of the program to gauge its efficacy and gain insights into the effectiveness of voluntary measures as a conservation tool. Inconspicuous observers accompanied 46 commercial whale‐watching trips from 12 companies in 2003 (n= 35) and 2004 (n= 11). During each trip, vessel position and speed were collected at 5‐second intervals with a GPS receiver. Binoculars with internal laser rangefinders and digital compasses were used to record range and bearing to sighted whales. We mapped whale locations with ArcGIS. We created speed‐zone buffers around sighted whales and overlaid them with vessel‐track and speed data to evaluate compliance. Speeds in excess of those recommended by the program were considered noncompliant. We judged the magnitude of noncompliance by comparing a vessel's maximum speed within a zone to its maximum recorded trip speed. The level of noncompliance was high (mean 0.78; company range 0.74–0.88), some companies were more compliant than others (p= 0.02), noncompliance was significantly higher in zones farther from whales (p < 0.001), and operators approached the maximum speed capabilities of their vessel in all zones. The voluntary conservation program did not achieve the goal of substantially limiting vessel speed near whales. Our results support the need for conservation programs to have quantifiable metrics and frequent evaluation to ensure efficacy.     

Estimating Watershed Level Nonagricultural Pesticide Use From Golf Courses Using Geospatial Methods1

Abstract: Limited information exists on pesticide use for nonagricultural purposes, making it difficult to estimate pesticide loadings from nonagricultural sources to surface water and to conduct environmental risk assessments. A method was developed to estimate the amount of pesticide use on recreational turf grasses, specifically golf course turf grasses, for watersheds located throughout the conterminous United States (U.S.). The approach estimates pesticide use: (1) based on the area of recreational turf grasses (used as a surrogate for turf associated with golf courses) within the watershed, which was derived from maps of land cover, and (2) from data on the location and average treatable area of golf courses. The area of golf course turf grasses determined from these two methods was used to calculate the percentage of each watershed planted in golf course turf grass (percent crop area, or PCA). Turf‐grass PCAs derived from the two methods were used with recommended application rates provided on pesticide labels to estimate total pesticide use on recreational turf within 1,606 watersheds associated with surface‐water sources of drinking water. These pesticide use estimates made from label rates and PCAs were compared to use estimates from industry sales data on the amount of each pesticide sold for use within the watershed. The PCAs derived from the land‐cover data had an average value of 0.4% of a watershed with minimum of 0.01% and a maximum of 9.8%, whereas the PCA values that are based on the number of golf courses in a watershed had an average of 0.3% of a watershed with a minimum of <0.01% and a maximum of 14.2%. Both the land‐cover method and the number of golf courses method produced similar PCA distributions, suggesting that either technique may be used to provide a PCA estimate for recreational turf. The average and maximum PCAs generally correlated to watershed size, with the highest PCAs estimated for small watersheds. Using watershed specific PCAs, combined with label rates, resulted in greater than two orders of magnitude over‐estimation of the pesticide use compared to estimates from sales data.     

贵广I回工程HOM3系统软件缺陷改进方法

通过分析贵广I回工程HOM3光测量系统在极控和直流滤波器保护系统中的软件,找到了软件在处理激光管告警信号和通讯故障信息的差异和缺陷,并提出了修改方法。修改方法经过实时数字仿真系统(RTDS)仿真验证,能够区分激光管告警和通讯故障两种不同的顺序事件记录(SER)信息,并准确定位发生通讯故障的通道,对提高工程安全稳定运行具有重要意义。     

城市老工业区土壤重金属污染状况与健康风险评价

本文对西部某老工业区土壤中As、Pb、Cr、Cd、Hg、Zn的含量、空间分布状况展开了研究,并依据《污染场地风险评估技术导则》对该老工业区的健康风险进行了评价。研究结果表明,该老工业区土壤重金属污染严重,6种元素与陕西土壤背景值相比超标100%,表明其不适宜作为居住用地开发。健康风险评价结果显示,As、Pb、Cr、Cd元素的非致癌风险值分别为3.83、1.7、1.94、1.09,均超过非致癌风险可接受值1,表明该老工业区对人们存在非致癌健康风险;对于致癌风险,As、Cr、Cd元素的致癌风险值远大于致癌风险边界值,分别超过致癌风险值的2个数量级(2.64×10-4)、4个数量级(1.94×10-2)、1个数量级(6.12×10-5),表示As和Cr已经达到了显著致癌风险的水平。     

基于贝叶斯网络的航空维修人因可靠性分析

根据维修人为因素分析和分类扩展系统的框架选取影响因素,在航空维修领域应用贝叶斯网络进行人因可靠性分析,建立飞机维修效能模型,直观地表示影响因素与维修效能之间的关系。同时以目视检测为例,结合专家意见确定随机影响因素,通过专家访谈、事故报告、调查问卷、操作记录等渠道获取数据,得出条件概率表,进而建立目视检测表现模型,展示贝叶斯网络的建模流程。案例研究结果表明,组织文化、视觉信息、设备、疲劳、检测距离等因素对目视检测表现的影响非常显著,欲改善目视检测表现,必须对多影响因素进行综合管理。     

海上应急保障资源调度的多目标模糊规划模型

针对现有应急资源调度模型无法完全适应海上应急保障环境的问题,建立了基于多目标模糊规划的海上应急资源调度模型.首先,将不确定的航行时间和资源需求量表示为三角模糊数,用时间隶属度函数的全积分对模糊应急开始时间进行确定化表示,用需求量隶属度表示需求点所接收的资源数量满足需求的程度.然后,考虑各需求点和各类资源的重要程度,以系统的时效性、需求满意度、安全性和经济性为优化目标建立多目标规划模型,最后,给出了模型的求解方法,并通过算例分析证明了方法的有效性.     

基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。     

2015年9-10月国内生产安全事故统计分析

统计了2015年9-10月国内发生的各种生产安全事故114起,其中包括交通事故、矿业事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄漏与中毒和其他事故.统计表明,在114起事故中,交通事故占64.91％,矿业事故占3.51％,爆炸事故占5.26％,火灾占2.63％,毒物泄漏与中毒占5.26％,其他事故占18.42％.114起事故共死亡520人.死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故62.88％,矿业事故5.00％,爆炸事故5.00％,火灾4.62％,毒物泄漏与中毒3.85％,其他事故18.65％.2015年9-10月生产安全事故发生较多的5个省分别为广东(12起)、甘肃(9起)、安徽(9起)、云南(8起)和辽宁(7起);死亡人数较多的5个省分别为安徽(52人)、广东(47人)、河南(39人)、甘肃(38人)和山东(35人).     

航空公司安全信息管理水平评价方法研究

分析了目前我国航空公司在安全信息管理和安全信息管理水平综合评价方面存在的问题.从航空公司安全信息管理的实际工作出发,结合安全管理体系(SMS)中对于安全信息管理的要求,建立了航空公司安全信息管理水平评价指标体系,并针对每个评价指标建立了4个等级的评价标准.基于主成分分析方法建立了航空公司安全信息管理水平综合评价模型.按照建立的指标体系和评价标准对5家航空公司进行了安全信息管理水平评分,并以此数据为基础,利用建立的综合评价模型对5家公司的安全信息管理水平进行了综合评价和排序,针对评价结果对各航空公司提高安全信息管理水平提出了具体的建议措施.     

含多弱层复合边坡滑坡治理三维数值分析

白音华二号矿滑坡区边坡治理工程是针对稳定性差的南帮非工作帮和南排土场构成的复合边坡进行的。滑坡体受多层弱层控制,治理过程中易导致边坡失稳,所以治理工程采取分区开采的条采方案,充分利用边坡治理的三维效应来进行边坡的失稳破坏研究和稳定性分析。选取滑坡区的典型剖面作为研究对象,基于强度折减方法(SRM),应用有限差分FLAC3D软件,在两种开挖条件下,对含多弱层的复合边坡的稳定性规律和破坏机制进行了数值模拟分析,揭示了多弱层对复合边坡的失稳破坏及稳定性的影响。研究结果表明,治理工程中,弱层被揭露一定宽度,滑体沿煤底板弱层水平错动、竖直方向拉裂破坏;随弱层暴露宽度的增加,边坡稳定性明显降低,说明治理边坡具有三维效应;开挖至3-3煤层底板,开挖坡角20°,弱层暴露宽度为400m,边坡的稳定系数刚好达到安全储备系数1.1,建议矿方首选此方案,可以最大限度的回收煤炭资源。