基于不确定性的水资源配置双层模型及其实证研究

针对水资源管理系统的不确定性和复杂性,引入区间参数表达系统中的不确定信息,建立了反映水资源管理者和使用者之间层次关系的区间双层规划模型,并以北京市丰台区水资源管理系统为例进行实证研究.同时,基于交互式算法和模糊满意度算法,用Lingo软件编程求解,确定了丰台区水资源的优化配置方案.规划结果表明:丰台区水资源管理系统的供需水量基本达到平衡,75%的供水量来源于本地地表水和南水北调水源;规划期内的系统经济效益预期达到2.22×10~9~5.16×10~9元,COD排放量将达到1.47×10~4~1.89×10~4t.区间结果提高了优化方案的灵活性,系统满意度体现了上层决策者与下层决策者的交互.其次,通过设计4种COD最大允许排放情景,说明了不同的COD排放约束将对规划结果产生重要影响.最后,通过3种模型的对比分析可以为丰台区水资源配置提供不同发展情景下的优化方案.     

Dynamic modeling and bifurcation analysis for the methyl isocyanate hydrolysis reaction

The aim of this work was to characterize the methyl isocyanate hydrolysis reaction and to identify its operational criteria. The parametric sensitivity and dynamic stability methodologies were performed at the Bhopal disaster circumstances, over the relevant operating parameter space. Stable and unstable conditions, bifurcations points, turning points and oscillatory behavior were determined. The combined methodology give useful guidance on the operative conditions selection and the appropriate strategy to overcome hazardous situations. The obtained results demonstrated high sensitivity to small perturbations (thermal runaway) and prevalent oscillatory behavior. Moreover, the following critical parameters for the studied dynamic system were defined: the inverse residence time of 1.5700103 and the heat transfer coefficient of 752.394.     

毕机沟露天矿岩体力学参数折减系数的数值模拟确定

岩体力学参数是边坡设计、边坡稳定性研究的基本条件,力学参数选取正确与否直接影响模拟结果的准确性。现场试验获取岩体力学参数既昂贵又费时,一般借助室内岩石力学试验并进行参数折减得到岩体力学参数,但各方法折减系数差异较大。依据毕机沟露天矿边坡开挖现状,结合工勘的岩石质量指标RQD,在室内岩石物理力学性质试验的基础上,应用拉格朗日有限差分法(FLAC-3D),分别研究单一参数变化及正交变化的边坡稳定性。正交试验中以边坡水平位移为评价指标,选择围岩体3个基本力学参数弹性模量E、内摩擦角Φ、黏聚力C为试验因素,计算模拟各参数不同水平组合下的位移分布,通过极差分析和方差分析,得出各参数对水平位移的影响显著性。结合边坡的应力分布,从而综合确定该矿山的岩体力学参数折减系数。     

基于性能参数退化的某弹用O型橡胶密封圈贮存寿命评估

目的研究某弹用O型橡胶密封圈的性能参数退化规律,并准确预测其贮存寿命。方法设计4个不同温度下的恒定应力加速退化试验,记录每个温度下不同时间点的性能退化数据,根据退化参数利用高分子材料性能变化与退化时间关系式及阿伦尼乌斯(Arrhenius)方程,建立O型橡胶密封圈压缩永久变形率与贮存时间的老化动力学方程。结果对照当地各个季节的平均温度值,建立了寿命评估模型,并由此预测了该型密封圈在自然环境贮存条件下的失效寿命在8年左右。结论该寿命评估值比较接近实际测量值,精度良好,可为O型橡胶密封圈在自然贮存条件下的寿命评估提供有价值的参考依据。     

基于空天地三维数据的尾矿库安全监管技术研究

为提高尾矿库安全状态,解决当前尾矿库监管难度大、代价高、盲区多的现实问题,以四川省盐边县小水井尾矿库为研究对象,采用高分遥感、无人机和三维激光组成的空天地三维数据,建立多层级、多精度三维数据的协同流转模式,通过周边关系分析、关键指标检查、防排洪验算、稳定性分析和溃坝模拟等手段,提供了尾矿库风险管控与定量化评价的参数,研究结果表明:该技术可有效提升尾矿库安全监管的技术能力,有助于促进运营方和监管者建立尾矿库监测-预警-避灾-救援工作体系。     

Measurement method for objective cyclist behavior parameters

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this research is to study the feasibility of measuring behavioral indicators that reflect effects of infrastructure and interaction with other road users.

Methods: An observation study was performed using 6 cameras above a separated cycle path next to a road which included a crossing with both cyclists and cars. A learning method based on Single Shot MultiBox Detector was applied to automatically detect the cyclists, and cyclist tracks were determined. Next, kinematic parameters were calculated from the cyclists’ tracks. Amongst others, the cyclists’ intensity, speed, position on the cycle path, and the distance to each other were analyzed for a busy period as well as for a quiet period of the day.

Results: With the measurement method developed in this study it is possible to analyze the cyclists’ intensity, the space they use at the cycle path, their average velocity, waiting times, the space and velocity amongst each other, and red light negation. However, collisions were not seen in the dataset analyzed, and the data is not sufficiently accurate to analyze sudden braking actions.

Conclusion: It can be concluded that the developed measurement method provides insight of the cyclists’ behavior in such a way that it can already be used for obtaining information to make changes to the infrastructure that will improve the comfort and safety of cyclists. The method could be further developed for doing qualitative comfort and safety analyses, and for doing analyses of the interaction between various types of road participants.     

煤岩混合型粉尘云最低着火温度试验研究

为研究半煤岩巷道中岩粉质量分数和煤的挥发分与煤岩混合型粉尘云最低着火温度的关系,选取挥发分差异较大的5种煤样以相同比例配制煤岩混合型粉尘,利用粉尘云最小点火温度测定仪进行煤岩混合型粉尘试验。结果表明,当煤岩混合型粉尘中岩粉质量分数低于40%时,岩粉的混合会导致混合型粉尘云最低着火温度发生小幅度波动;当岩粉质量分数高于40%时,煤岩混合型粉尘最低着火温度会随岩粉质量分数的增加而大幅度升高;挥发分质量分数越小的煤粉,其混合型粉尘云最低着火温度越容易受岩粉质量分数的影响。     

The effects of drug and alcohol consumption on driver injury severities in single-vehicle crashes

Objective: It is well known that alcohol and drugs influence driving behavior by affecting the central nervous system, awareness, vision, and perception/reaction times, but the resulting effect on driver injuries in car crashes is not fully understood. The purpose of this study was to identify factors affecting the injury severities of unimpaired, alcohol-impaired, and drug-impaired drivers.

Method: The current article applies a random parameters logit model to study the differences in injury severities among unimpaired, alcohol-impaired, and drug-impaired drivers. Using data from single-vehicle crashes in Cook County, Illinois, over a 9-year period from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2012, separate models for unimpaired, alcohol-impaired, and drug-impaired drivers were estimated. A wide range of variables potentially affecting driver injury severity was considered, including roadway and environmental conditions, driver attributes, time and location of the crash, and crash-specific factors.

Results: The estimation results show significant differences in the determinants of driver injury severities across groups of unimpaired, alcohol-impaired, and drug-impaired drivers. The findings also show that unimpaired drivers are understandably more responsive to variations in lighting, adverse weather, and road conditions, but these drivers also tend to have much more heterogeneity in their behavioral responses to these conditions, relative to impaired drivers. In addition, age and gender were found to be important determinants of injury severity, but the effects varied significantly across all drivers, particularly among alcohol-impaired drivers.

Conclusions: The model estimation results show that statistically significant differences exist in driver injury severities among the unimpaired, alcohol-impaired, and drug-impaired driver groups considered. Specifically, we find that unimpaired drivers tend to have more heterogeneity in their injury outcomes in the presence potentially adverse weather and road surface conditions. This makes sense because one would expect unimpaired drivers to apply their full knowledge/judgment range to deal with these conditions, and the variability of this range across the driver population (with different driving experiences, etc.) should be great. In contrast, we find, for the most part, that alcohol-impaired and drug-impaired drivers have far less heterogeneity in the factors that affect injury severity, suggesting an equalizing effect resulting from the decision-impairing substance.     

鸡粪高效降解菌群对堆肥的影响

为明确自行筛选开发的高效降解菌对鸡粪发酵的影响,分析研究了其堆肥的主要腐熟指标。结果表明,加入高效降解菌剂的堆肥处理方法温度相对较高,脱水快,pH值适宜,C／N调整较好,种子发芽指数高,堆肥后营养养分含量高,且大肠菌群数量少,堆肥效果较好。     

孔径调变对MCM-41分子筛吸附VOCs性能的影响

采用3种不同碳链长度的季铵盐表面活性剂C_nTAB(n=8,12,16)为模板剂,分别合成8-MCM-41、12-MCM-41和16-MCM-41介孔分子筛,并以甲苯、邻二甲苯、均三甲苯为吸附对象,考察了介孔分子筛动态吸附VOCs的性能.结果表明,通过减少表面活性剂的碳链长度,可以成功地把MCM-41分子筛的孔径调变为4.1、3.2和2.4 nm.吸附实验结果表明,当MCM-41孔径减小时,其对低浓度甲苯、邻二甲苯的吸附量大幅上升,均三甲苯存在孔道扩散效应,其吸附量增加不明显.吸附等温线表明,在2.4 nm孔道内,3种芳烃分子均属于典型的Langmuir单分子层吸附;当孔径大于2.4 nm时,芳烃分子出现明显的多层吸附和毛细凝聚现象.