黑河流域水汽输送及收支特征

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料对黑河流域的水汽输送和收支特征进行了计算分析,结果表明:西风环流使得源于大西洋和北冰洋的水汽成为黑河流域空中水汽的主要来源,流域内水汽输送以自西向东的纬向输送为主,东边界输出强度强于西边界输入强度,纬向净输入量为负;经向输送为自北向南且在强度上不及纬向输送,北边界输入强度强于南边界输出强度,经向净输入量为正。700 hPa气层流域南部的水汽辐合辐散特征随季节变化显著,冬季为水汽辐散区,夏季为水汽辐合区;流域北部没有明显的水汽辐合辐散特征。全流域多年平均水汽输入量为997.3 km³,输出量为1 046.1 km³,净输入量-48.8 km³,20世纪60年代中期以后流域水汽净输入量呈现增加趋势。黑河流域北部荒漠区年内各季均为水汽输出期,中低层大气(地面~500 hPa)为主要的水汽输出层;南部山区年内6-9月为水汽输入期,低层大气(地面~700 hPa)为水汽输入层,中高层大气(700~300 hPa)为水汽输出层。据大气水平衡原理,黑河流域多年平均蒸发量约为84 km³。     

An International Comparative Analysis on China’s Economic Growth and the Convergence in Energy Intensity Gap and Its Economic Mechanism

Abstract

In this paper, the authors have empirically analyzed the convergence in per capita GDP gap and the convergence in the variation of energy intensity with respect to the change of per capita GDP between China and eight developed countries. Then, the authors run a regression on the impact of decisive factors of economic growth on energy intensity and its change, so as to find out the economic mechanism of energy intensity gap changing with respect to the variation of economic growth. This study concludes that: First, there is a convergence in per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries. With the convergence in per capita GDP gap, the energy intensity gap between China and eight different countries also converge, and the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former, i.e. if the per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries decreases by 1%, the energy intensity gap between them will correspondingly decrease by 1.552%. Second, the energy intensity decreases with the improvement of industrial structure, the rising of energy prices, the advances of technology, and the expansion of investment in fixed assets, and it slightly increases with the increase of FDI. Third, the energy intensity gap between China and eight developed countries narrows with the lessening of the difference in fixed assets investment, energy prices, and technological progress between China and eight developed countries, yet increases with the narrowing of the difference in FDI, and has no significant correlation with the difference in industrial structure. Fourth, the narrowing of difference in per capita GDP between China and the eight developed countries can result in the lessening of energy intensity gap, whose economic mechanism is that the decisive factors, such as difference in investment, technology, and the competition mechanism of prices, which can determine the difference in economic growth, can significantly affect the energy intensity gap.     

我国文化和旅游产业融合效率的时空动态演化及其驱动机理

采用仁慈型交叉DEA效率模型、冷热点分析、Tobit模型等方法对2010—2019年我国文化产业和旅游产业融合效率的时空动态演化及驱动机理进行了全面探析,结果发现:①2010—2019年我国文化产业和旅游产业融合效率呈波动上升趋势。②研究期内,文化和旅游产业融合效率呈“东部—中部—西部”依次递减,而融合效率增长率呈“东部—西部—中部”依次递减,但融合增长率都不高。③研究期内,文化产业和旅游产业融合效率呈区域差异性和集聚性。④从文化和旅游产业融合效率驱动机制剖析来看,经济发展、居民消费水平、地区城市化水平、信息发达程度、创新能力、政府政策支持力度是我国文化和旅游产业融合效率的驱动因素,促使效率时空动态演化。     

Establishment Success across Convergent Mediterranean Ecosystems: an Analysis of Bird Introductions

Abstract:  Concern over the impact of invaders on biodiversity and on the functioning of ecosystems has generated a rising tide of comparative analyses aiming to unveil the factors that shape the success of introduced species across different regions. One limitation of these studies is that they often compare geographically rather than ecologically defined regions. We propose an approach that can help address this limitation: comparison of invasions across convergent ecosystems that share similar climates. We compared avian invasions in five convergent mediterranean climate systems around the globe. Based on a database of 180 introductions representing 121 avian species, we found that the proportion of bird species successfully established was high in all mediterranean systems (more than 40% for all five regions). Species differed in their likelihood to become established, although success was not higher for those originating from mediterranean systems than for those from nonmediterranean regions. Controlling for this taxonomic effect with generalized linear mixed models, species introduced into mediterranean islands did not show higher establishment success than those introduced to the mainland. Susceptibility to avian invaders, however, differed substantially among the different mediterranean regions. The probability that a species will become established was highest in the Mediterranean Basin and lowest in mediterranean Australia and the South African Cape. Our results suggest that many of the birds recently introduced into mediterranean systems, and especially into the Mediterranean Basin, have a high potential to establish self-sustaining populations. This finding has important implications for conservation in these biologically diverse hotspots.     

文化和旅游的关系网络及其融合路径研究

为破解文化和旅游融合发展过程中的困难和挑战,借鉴共生理论、社会互动理论和互惠规范理论,构建了文化和旅游"共生—共建—共享"的关系网络,并进一步从政府、企业和旅游者角度提出文旅融合发展路径,最终构建了文化和旅游在理念、职能、产业、市场、服务和交流方面的六大融合矩阵。     

From Environmental Ethics to Nature Conservation Policy: Natura 2000 and the Burden of Proof

Natura 2000 is a network of natural sites whose aim is to preserve species and habitats of relevance in the European Union. The policy underlying Natura 2000 has faced widespread opposition from land users and received extensive support from environmentalists. This paper addresses the ethical framework for Natura 2000 and the probable moral assumptions of its main stakeholders. Arguments for and against Natura 2000 were analyzed and classified according to “strong” or “weak” versions of the three main theories of environmental ethics – anthropocentrism, biocentrism, and ecocentrism. Weak (intergenerational) anthropocentrism was found to underlie the Natura 2000 network itself and the positions of environmentalists, while strong (traditional) anthropocentrism pervaded the positions of economic developers. Land users seemed to fall somewhere between weak and strong anthropocentrism. The paper discusses the relation between ethics and different attitudes towards Natura 2000, highlighting some of the implications for the network’s ongoing implementation. It is shown that Natura 2000 achieves a strong reversal of the burden of proof from conservation to economic development and land use change under anthropocentrism. It is argued that the alleged theoretical divide between anthropocentrism and non-anthropocentrism in relation to the burden of proof does not seem to hold in practice. Finally, it is predicted that the weak versions of anthropocentrism, biocentrism, and ecocentrism, are likely to converge extensively in respect to nature conservation policy measures.“Charting the depths of law and policy disputes yield an understanding of ethical differences.” Paul B. Thompson (2002, p. 189).     

基于修正莫尔库伦的基坑开挖对隧道安全影响研究

为分析基坑开挖对临近地铁隧道的影响,以某基坑工程为研究背景,结合修正-莫尔库伦本构关系,采用Midas GTS NX构建三维地层结构模型,通过仿真分析基坑开挖前后隧道水平、竖向位移的变化规律及特征点.结果表明:基坑开挖会导致地铁隧道结构产生水平收缩的趋势,隧道最大沉降和隆起点从远离基坑的外侧隧道向靠近基坑的内侧隧道转移...     

我国中部地区经济增长收敛性分析

运用以人口为权数的Theil指数分析我国中部地区经济σ-收敛发现:1997-2007年中部地区存在较明显的σ-收敛,且省际间的经济差异是中部地区经济σ-收敛的阻碍因素;同时运用Barro和Sala-i-Martin经典模型分析中部地区经济β-收敛,通过加入影响经济增长的动态变量--城市化、工业化等条件发现:中部地区存在显著的条件β-收敛,其中工业化和创新能力是影响中部地区条件β-收敛的首要因素,政府过度干预经济的行为是阻碍其条件β-收敛的重要因素.     

The convergence of alternative food networks within “rural development” initiatives: the case of the New Rural Reconstruction Movement in China†

Rural sociologists and geographers have conceptualised different rural development trajectories including “the agri-industrial model”, “the post-productivist model” and “the rural development model”. Alternative food networks (AFNs) are increasingly recognised as a “forerunner” and a critical component of the emerging “rural development model” in the West. Meanwhile, Marsden and Franklin [2013. Replacing neoliberalism: theoretical implications of the rise of local food movements. Local Environment, 18 (5), 636–641] pointed out that there is a “local trap” in the current conceptualisation of AFNs that overemphasises their local embeddedness and heterogeneity. This “local trap” marginalises AFNs and, therefore, hinders their potential for transforming the industrialised conventional food system. The convergence and scaling-up of fragmented AFNs have been recognised as important ways to address this marginalisation issue and thus have attracted considerable attention. However, current studies of the convergence of AFNs focus mainly on the role of food-centred organisations without recognising the role of the emerging “rural development” initiatives in the convergence of AFNs. Based on in-depth interviews with key stakeholders and analysis of secondary data, this paper uses the New Rural Reconstruction Movement (NRRM), an emerging alternative rural development movement in China, as an example to illustrate how the NRRM opens up a novel space for the convergence of AFNs. We argue that the interrelationship between AFNs and rural development is indeed reciprocal. The NRRM, following the “rural development” trajectory, functions as a hub for the convergence and scaling-up of various alternative food initiatives. Strategies for achieving convergence include constructing a “common ground” for these initiatives, establishing national alliances and organisations, sharing knowledge and exchanging personnel among them.     

绿色水资源利用效率的测度和收敛性分析

为实现水资源的高效利用和生态环境价值,必须把非合意产出纳入水资源利用效率的研究范畴。使用2003-2013年中国30个省市的面板数据,选取Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数测算了考虑环境污染的绿色水资源利用效率,在此基础上,进行了各地区水资源利用效率的收敛性检验,研究结果表明：1）针对全国而言,环境约束下的动态绿色水资源利用效率低于无环境约束得到的水资源利用效率,即忽视非合意产出时水资源利用效率被高估,这也表明传统的水资源利用效率数值的“虚高”是以水生态破坏为代价的。2）全国绿色水资源利用效率增长3.3%,其中,技术进步对水资源利用效率增长起到了正向作用,但技术效率却对改善水资源利用效率起了阻碍作用。3）全国、东部和中部区域绿色水资源利用效率增长率趋向于稳态,但西部区域的增长率虽存在条件β收敛,但不存在绝对β收敛。最后根据研究结果,提出高度重视水资源的经济价值和生态环境功能;紧扣自主创新和产业结构调整主线,通过技术进步大幅提升绿色水资源利用效率及建立节水减排的内在动力机制,缩小绿色水资源利用率的地区差距等建议。