论灾害管理与经济发展的辩证关系

本文以ＡＢＣ分类法说明了减轻地震灾害的重要意义，指出了地震灾害绝对损失数额一般会随社会经济发展而逐渐增大这一客观事实。文中提出了表达地震灾害危险性、防抗灾工程投资和社会经济发展关系的一般数学模型，对灾害管理与经济发展的辩证关系进行了讨论。     

山东省城市灾害与减灾对策

通过分析山东省城市化现状以及带来的城市灾害特点，总结出适合山东特点的城市减灾对策。     

The economics of tire remanufacturing

The world market for tires is described to identify the current material flow from raw materials to tires and the used tire disposal problem. Then, I describe the value-adding operations in the tire production process and in the tire retreading process. Once retreading is identified as the only recovery alternative that maximizes tire utilization, I explain why heat generation is the only recovery alternative, when retreading is not technically feasible. The economic values of heat generation in electric plants and in cement kilns are discussed. The paper culminates with the case of retreading, the tire remanufacturing process and the recommendation of a simple decision rule for selecting the number of times a tire should be retreaded to maximize its utilization.     

旱涝灾害的一些基本问题初探

首先就旱涝灾害对人类的作用进行了分析，认为它影响范围最大，危害程度最深．其次．对旱涝灾害的成因、确定旱涝灾害的定量指标以及评估旱涝灾害的指标体系进行分析探讨；最后对国内防御旱涝灾害的能力做了总体评价，并对其所采取的预防，救抗灾措施等进行分析．     

SCR反应塔入口段烟气速度场的数值模拟

使用商业计算软件CFX5．7．1，采用标准k-ε湍流模型，模拟了SCR脱硝反应塔入口段烟气速度场，并分析比较了导流板对烟气速度场的影响及均匀SCR反应塔进口处烟气速度场的作用。     

海啸预警系统及我国海啸减灾任务

2004年12月26日印度洋海啸引发了新一轮海啸预警系统的研究。简述了地震海啸预警的原理，分析了海啸数值模拟的一些基本方法，综述了目前世界上多个国家海啸预警系统的建设情况，通过对我国海啸灾害研究现状的分析，明确了我国当前海啸防灾减灾工作的主要任务。     

城市绿地系统建设与城市减灾防灾

自然灾害往往给城市造成重大损失.在城市综合防灾减灾体系中,城市绿地系统占有十分重要的位置.城市绿地系统是城市规划和建设中的重要组成部分,它不仅具有美化城市环境、净化空气、平衡城市生态系统、为城市居民提供休憩游乐场所等作用,同时还具有防震、防火、防洪、减轻灾害的功能.从城市绿地的定义和分类人手,分析了城市绿地系统在城市综合防灾减灾中的作用,并通过介绍和分析日本防灾公园的规划建设,探讨了城市避灾绿地系统的规划方法.     

基于安全投入产出模型的城市安全资源优化策略

城市安全投入与安全经济效益是制约城市安全产出的两个关键因素。为了揭示两者间的关系及其在提高城市安全度方面的作用，笔者借鉴安全经济学理论和方法，在研讨安全投入产出概论的基础上，在安全经济效益不变和安全投入量已知的情况下，提出了建立安全投入产出模型的方法。并以企业为例，从微观上验证了模型的有效性。不仅为城市安全管理决策者提供了制定安全投入目标、确定安全投入效用水平的量化工具，而且更加突出了提高安全经济效益的重要性。同时，提出了建立“资源共享”的城市重大危险源安全应急网络策略，为进一步优化城市安全资源配置和提高资源利用率奠定了基础。     

Estimating the Recreational-Use Value for Hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors’ own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be $AUS 250,825 per year, or $AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.     

Integrating fisheries into the national development plans of Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Ten years on from Barbados

The development and effective introduction of strategies designed to ensure the ecologically and economically sustainable utilization of coastal and marine resources is perhaps the major challenge for Small Island Developing States (SIDS). In response, the 1994 Barbados Programme of Action (BPoA) called upon the SIDS to implement appropriate coastal and marine strategies and, crucially, ensure that such strategies were integrated into sustainable national development plans (NDPs). This article examines the extent to which contemporary NDPs and donor support programmes have incorporated the fisheries sector — arguably the most important coastal/marine resource for many SIDS — into such documents. Applying an assessment methodology, originally developed to identify levels of environmental mainstreaming within World Bank country assistance strategies to NDPs and donor support programmes, we are able to identify those SIDS who have most effectively integrated the fisheries sector into such documents. Comparison with data indicating the importance of the sector to the national economy (in terms of generating foreign exchange, employment generation and/or supporting domestic protein consumption levels) enables us to pinpoint those countries with substantial fisheries sectors, but a correspondingly lower than expected degree of sectoral mainstreaming. We suggest that the January 2005 review of the BPoA offers an opportune moment for such countries to redress these omissions.