产业园区碳排放核算方法研究

产业园区是一个协同实现经济效益和环境效益的重要单元,同时也是重点碳排放源,其转型和发展对实现国家和地区的低碳战略起到关键作用。碳排放核算方法影响园区碳排放水平的评估,是制定有效碳减排策略的基础。产业园区碳排放核算需要明确核算对象、核算结果表征和核算范围。本研究首先界定核算对象,辨析"二氧化碳量"与"二氧化碳当量"两种表征方式,认为二氧化碳量可以反映产业园区能源结构,而二氧化碳当量则能够量化园区的不同排放过程和环境效应。同时,从价值链角度出发,将园区碳排放核算划分为三个Scope,分别反映园区直接排放和上下游关联企业的间接排放。然后,从排放活动和部门关联出发,分析三种典型碳排放核算方法(清单分析法、投入产出分析和生态网络分析),进一步划分为流量分析模式和结构分析模式。流量分析模式主要从排放量角度对园区内部及其上下游产业链相关的碳排放活动进行核算;结构分析模式则聚焦园区相关碳排放部门和价值链的组织形式,从投入产出或者网络关联角度开展分析。研究发现清单分析法可以自下而上量化产业园区碳排放活动的流量,投入产出法则自上而下揭示碳排放单元的直接和间接流量以及平行结构,而生态网络分析则采用混合式核算模式刻画碳排放单元之间的网状关联结构。最后,本研究初步提出了产业园区碳排放核算方法的研究框架,力求提高排放因子精度,改进核算模式和建立动态核算模型,对碳排放总量和结构进行预测,从而实现产业园区的低碳发展。     

中国碳排放强度的时空演进及跃迁机制

面对气候变化所带来的生存危机以及环境治理的复杂状况,对中国碳排放强度时空演进的动态监测与预警治理的研究是实现碳排放强度下降目标的关键。文章测算1997—2015年中国大陆30个省区碳排放强度的空间面板数据,采用探索性时空数据分析(ESTDA)方法对中国碳排放强度的空间相关性、集聚特征及其时空跃迁进行空间统计分析,借助分位数回归与时空跃迁嵌套模型,揭示在时间和空间推移的双重作用下中国各省区碳排放强度的时空跃迁机制。研究结果表明:(1)中国30个省区的碳排放强度在时空分布上并不是完全随机状态,各个省区碳排放强度之间具有显著的空间相关性特征,碳排放强度的变动趋势会受到其相临近省区碳排放强度的影响,省域间的碳排放强度在空间分布上呈现"集聚"与"分异"并存的时空演进特征。(2)中国碳排放强度空间集聚趋势增强,具有高度的凝固性和较低的流动性,10个高碳排放强度省区碳排放强度的稳定性将成为制约中国碳排放强度整体跃迁的重点省区,相关省区的跃迁性将成为驱动中国碳排放强度整体跃迁的关键省区。(3)各省区的碳排放强度空间集聚过程中存在时空跃迁的驱动模式和制约模式,分位数回归模型能够很好地解释各驱动因素对碳排放强度时空跃迁的驱动机制,不同响应阶段的驱动因素的分位数与碳排放强度时空跃迁类型之间具有很强的嵌套性。(4)根据各省区碳排放强度时空演进及其跃迁机制的分析结果,进一步提出加强对关键省区碳排放强度的有效监测与治理,加大碳排放的约束力度等差异化的碳减排调控措施。     

中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估

实现2030年碳排放达峰不仅是中国为应对全球气候变化向国际社会做出的郑重承诺,也是中国未来经济结构转型与可持续发展的必然选择。基于中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值的宏观目标为背景,本文以中国碳排放的主要行业工业为研究对象,首先运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对工业及其9个细分行业的碳排放达峰进行了情景预测,然后基于公平和效率的双重视角对工业细分行业的减排潜力进行评估。研究表明:(1)仅有低碳情景和抑制排放情景2可以实现中国碳排放2030年达峰,低碳情景是实现中国工业碳排放达峰的最佳发展模式,达峰时间最早(2030年),峰值最低(140.43亿t)。激进排放情景则是最差的发展模式,达峰时间最晚(2036年),峰值也最高(150.09亿t)。(2)工业内部各细分行业碳排放的最优达峰情景差别较大。建材和纺织制造业能够实现提前达峰,可以在这类行业率先实施达峰管理措施,使其带动其他行业陆续达峰。(3)最具减排潜力的行业是石油制造业,其次是电力行业,这些减排潜力较大的行业应该成为国家节能减排的重点对象。(4)基于工业各细分行业在减排公平性和效率性上的差异将工业9个细分行业分为四类。其中,石油、钢铁制造业和电力行业属于"高效高公平行业";化工、建材制造业属于"低效高公平行业";采掘业属于"高效不公平行业";纺织、轻工和机电制造业属于"低效不公平行业"。中国应针对不同类型的行业制定出相应的减排战略,将减排重点放在各行业最具潜力的方面。最后,文章对实现中国工业碳排放达峰管理提出了几点政策建议。     

基于内容分析法的土地利用总体规划目标偏好研究

土地利用总体规划需要统筹区域发展多元目标以增强对区域发展的指导力和约束性,因此全面了解我国土地利用总体规划的政策目标偏好,能为优化规划技术方法和改革规划管理体制提供政策参考。鉴于此,本文在分析我国土地利用总体规划多元目标及其关系的基础上,采用内容分析法基于全国土地利用总体规划纲要进行词频挖掘构建目标偏好测量维度及体系,进而对两轮省级土地利用总体规划文本进行目标偏好的定量测度,结果表明:(1)土地利用总体规划是多目标规划,通过内容分析法可以构建由经济、社会、生态三大目标构成的目标偏好测量体系;(2)从目标偏好排序来看,三大目标中社会目标始终是两轮土地利用总体规划的首要偏好目标,生态目标是土地利用总体规划的次要偏好目标,经济目标排在最后;同时相比上轮规划,本轮规划耕地保护子目标次序提前,土地整治子目标次序推后;(3)从目标偏好程度来看,社会目标的首位偏好程度有所下降,但其中耕地保护子目标的首位偏好度明显上升;生态目标和经济目标的首位偏好程度基本不变,总体而言本轮规划三大目标偏好程度的差异缩小。研究结果说明,我国土地利用总体规划始终坚持以耕地保护为核心的社会目标偏好,符合其是国土资源管理部门主导的部门规划的定位;虽然土地利用总体规划对经济、社会、生态三大目标的偏好程度差异缩小,但其若要在空间规划体系中发挥更大的作用,还需要通过优化规划技术和改革规划管理体制进一步均衡经济、社会、生态目标,以承担起统领全区域空间发展的要求。     

围垦后南汇东滩海三棱藨草的空间分布及其影响因子研究

2015年9月~10月期间对2012年底围垦后南汇嘴区域的海三棱藨草(Scirpus mariqueter)湿地系统进行了调研,运用主成分分析、典范对应分析(canonical correspondence analysis,CCA)方法,基于101个样地土壤的有机碳、总磷、总氮、硝酸盐氮、亚硝酸盐氮、氨氮、正磷酸盐、pH、含水率、粒径、盐度、滩涂高程等12个环境因子数据,探讨了围垦后海三棱藨草空间分布的关键影响因子。结果表明:海三棱藨草的分布与滩涂高程具有显著正相关(P0.05),海三棱藨草群落主要分布在南汇滩涂2.5~3.4 m高程范围内;海三棱藨草的密度、盖度与盐度呈显著正相关(P0.05)。结论认为滩涂高程和土壤盐度是影响海三棱藨草分布的主要环境因子。未来需要结合围垦后的水动力变化过程数值模拟,对海三棱藨草生态系统高时空分辨率的响应过程及机制进行研究,以进一步确立海三棱藨草对围垦工程响应的关键阈值。研究对围垦工程后的滨海湿地植被恢复及滩涂生态修复具有参考意义。     

Unpacking the objectives and assumptions underpinning European aquaculture

Increasing demand for seafood and the lack of growth of capture fisheries have boosted aquaculture growth worldwide. However, European aquaculture has been stagnating over the past decade, and European public authorities have been developing policies and strategies in efforts to reverse this. Aquaculture discourses in the European Union, based on 34 policy, planning, and strategy documents, are examined and a discourse analysis conducted following Bacchi’s WPR (What is the Problem Represented to be?) approach. How the problems in these discourses are represented, the tensions among main objectives, and the implicit assumptions are unveiled, and discussed employing a Polanyian theoretical framework. Taking these assumptions for granted leads to a disembedded understanding of aquaculture, and facilitates the privatization of aquatic space and resources. The analysis contributes to the literature establishing the link between the expansion of aquaculture and the enclosure of aquatic resources and enriches environmental and political debates on European aquaculture.     

Taming the Climate? Corpus analysis of politicians’ speech on climate change

The politics of climate change is much discussed, but there has been little investigation into how politicians themselves understand or articulate the issue. Corpus analysis, a method developed within linguistics, is used to investigate how UK politicians talk about climate change, using the example of the 2008 Climate Change Bill. Corpus techniques, including keyword analysis, collocation and semantic tagging, are used, alongside critical reading of the text. The analysis shows that politicians frame climate change as an economic and technical issue, and neglect discussion of the human and social dimensions. They are selective in their use of scientific evidence, with little mention of abrupt or irreversible change. In doing so, they attempt to ‘tame’ climate change, rather than confronting difficult realities. While this strategy has the benefit of political acceptability, it does not allow for discussion of the full political and social implications of climate change, and precludes more radical responses.     

Elite cues,media coverage,and public concern: an integrated path analysis of public opinion on climate change, 2001–2013

To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.     

基于统计方法的辽东湾沉积物中多环芳烃来源特征分析

为研究辽东湾表层沉积物中多环芳烃(PAHs)的来源特征,2014年5月采集了20个辽东湾海域表层沉积物样品,并利用气相色谱质谱联用仪对优先控制的16种PAHs进行测定,采用聚类分析、主成分分析-多元线性回归分析、异构体比值3种统计方法对辽东湾表层沉积物中PAHs来源特征进行了研究。结果表明,辽东湾表层沉积物中PAHs含量范围88.5~199.3 ng·g-1,平均值为(126.3±35.3)ng·g-1,其中,萘、菲和荧蒽是PAHs优势组分。通过统计分析结果表明,辽东湾北部表层沉积物中PAHs含量低于西南部,沉积物中PAHs的来源包括石油燃烧来源、煤炭、木材等生物质燃烧来源和石油来源,其中燃烧来源是主要来源,煤炭、木材等生物质燃烧来源占49.9%,石油燃烧来源和石油来源占50.1%。     

Why social values cannot be changed for the sake of conservation

The hope for creating widespread change in social values has endured among conservation professionals since early calls by Aldo Leopold for a “land ethic.” However, there has been little serious attention in conservation to the fields of investigation that address values, how they are formed, and how they change. We introduce a social–ecological systems conceptual approach in which values are seen not only as motivational goals people hold but also as ideas that are deeply embedded in society's material culture, collective behaviors, traditions, and institutions. Values define and bind groups, organizations, and societies; serve an adaptive role; and are typically stable across generations. When abrupt value changes occur, they are in response to substantial alterations in the social–ecological context. Such changes build on prior value structures and do not result in complete replacement. Given this understanding of values, we conclude that deliberate efforts to orchestrate value shifts for conservation are unlikely to be effective. Instead, there is an urgent need for research on values with a multilevel and dynamic view that can inform innovative conservation strategies for working within existing value structures. New directions facilitated by a systems approach will enhance understanding of the role values play in shaping conservation challenges and improve management of the human component of conservation.