基于非本地物种毒性数据推导出的水质基准可为本地物种提供适当保护吗？

基于非本地物种的毒性数据推导出的水质基准一直存在争议,质疑者提出应有针对不同生物区系的水质基准。而这个问题在中国尤为突出。本文作者搜集了38种污染物对本地物种和非本地物种的毒性数据,比较了这些生物的HC₅和物种敏感度分布,结果显示,基于非本地物种推导的水质基准有74%的确定性可以有效保护中国的水生态系统。如果采用评价因子(AF=5)来校正基准,那么可以获得90%的确定性。
精选自Xiaowei Jin, Zijian Wang, Yeyao Wang, Yibing Lv, Kaifeng Rao, Wei Jin, John P. Giesy and Kenneth M. Y. Leung. Do water quality criteria based on nonnative species provide appropriate protection for native species? Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 34, Issue 8, pages 1744–1750, August 2015. DOI: 10.1002/etc.2985
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.2985/full     

灰色系统理论在高校学生公寓火灾风险评价中的应用

针对高校学生公寓火灾的安全问题,参考相关标准、征求专家意见,建立了高校学生公寓火灾风险评价指标体系,并确定了权重。在此基础上,根据灰色系统理论原理对高校学生公寓火灾风险评价进行研究,建立评价模型,运用改进后的多层次灰色关联度分析法对青岛市某高校10#学生公寓的火灾风险进行评价,得出火灾风险等级为二级,即安全。研究结果表明,所建立的评价模型对学生公寓火灾的风险评价具有良好的应用价值,也为火灾风险评价提供了一种新的综合评价方法。     

应用相平衡分配法建立污染物的沉积物质量基准

以污染较为严重的天津某污水库的表层沉积物为对象,应用热力学相平衡分配(EqP)法,初步探讨了该水体沉积物中4种重金属(Cd,Cu,As,Hg)和2种有机氯农药〔滴滴涕(DDT)、六六六(HCH)〕的沉积物质量基准(SQC)推荐值. 其中,基于我国地表水水质基准的4种重金属Cd,Cu,As和Hg的SQC推荐值分别为4.3,86,218和0.45 mg/kg;基于美国环境保护署(US EPA)的保护水生生物水质基准的2种有机氯农药(DDT和HCH)的SQC推荐值分别为18.0和0.27 μg/kg. 通过与不同国家制订的SQC值进行比较发现,地区间的SQC值相差较大,说明在SQC值的确定过程中存在诸多不确定因素. 所推算出的几种污染物的SQC值均接近所有数据的中间值,表明其可为该水体沉积物的风险评估提供依据.      

Prevalence-adjusted optimisation of fuzzy models for species distribution

Most performance criteria which have been applied to train ecological models focus on the accuracy of the model predictions. However, these criteria depend on the prevalence of the training set and often do not take into account ecological issues such as the distinction between omission and commission errors. Moreover, a previous study indicated that model training based on different performance criteria results in different optimised models. Therefore, model developers should train models based on different performance criteria and select the most appropriate model depending on the modelling objective. This paper presents a new approach to train fuzzy models based on an adjustable performance criterion, called the adjusted average deviation (aAD). This criterion was applied to develop a species distribution model for spawning grayling in the Aare River near Thun, Switzerland. To analyse the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, it was compared to model training based on other performance criteria. The results suggest that model training based on accuracy-based performance criteria may produce unrealistic models at extreme prevalences of the training set, whereas the aAD allows for the identification of more accurate and more reliable models. Moreover, the adjustable parameter in this criterion enables modellers to situate the optimised models in the search space and thus provides an indication of the ecological model relevance. Consequently, it may support modellers and river managers in the decision making process by improving model reliability and insight into the modelling process. Due to the universality and the flexibility of the approach, it could be applied to any other ecosystem or species, and may therefore be valuable to ecological modelling and ecosystem management in general.     

环境质量标准制订中的关键技术问题

为提高我国环境质量标准的科学性、系统性和可操作性,从分析我国环境质量标准存在的问题出发,通过阐述环境质量标准制订原理,对比分析国外相关标准,对不同要素环境质量标准制订中的4个关键的共性技术问题——保护对象或用途功能划分、阈限值及阶段目标设立、污染物项目选择、划区实施与监测评价进行了研究.结果表明:应针对不同的保护对象或用途功能,依据环境基准研究成果,设定不同的污染物项目和限值要求;污染物项目应明确指标含义,限值要求应适当区分阈限值及阶段目标;应根据区域、流域主导功能,划区实施标准并开展监测评价工作.      

A review of approaches for the long-term management of municipal solid waste landfills

After closure, municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills must be managed and controlled to avoid adverse effects on human health and the environment (HHE). Aftercare (or post-closure care) can be brought to an end when the authorities consider the landfill to no longer pose a threat to HHE. Different approaches have been suggested for long-term landfill management and evaluation of aftercare completion. In this paper, research on aftercare and its completion is analyzed and regulatory approaches for the completion of landfill aftercare are reviewed. Approaches to aftercare could be categorized as (i) target values, (ii) impact/risk assessment, and (iii) performance based. Comparison of these approaches illustrates that each has limitations and strengths. While target values are typically used as screening indicators to be complemented with site-specific assessments, impact/risk assessment approaches address the core issue about aftercare completion, but face large uncertainties and require a high level of expertise. A performance-based approach allows for the combination of target values and impact/risk assessments in a consistent evaluation framework with the aim of sequentially reducing aftercare intensity and, ultimately, leading to the completion of aftercare. At a regulatory level, simple qualitative criteria are typically used as the primary basis for defining completion of aftercare, most likely due to the complexity of developing rigorous evaluation methodologies. This paper argues that development of transparent and consistent regulatory procedures represents the basis for defining the desired state of a landfill at the end of aftercare and for reducing uncertainty about the intensity and duration of aftercare. In this context, recently presented technical guidelines and the ongoing debate with respect to their regulatory acceptance are a valuable step towards developing strategies for the cost-effective protection of HHE at closed MSW landfills. To assess the practicality of evaluation methodologies for aftercare, well-documented case studies including regulatory review and acceptance are needed.     

国家公园效果评价体系研究

建立国家公园是保护生物多样性和促进地方发展的重要途径之一,开展国家公园效果评价是了解国家公园功能发挥的有效途径。通过查阅大量文献及德尔菲法（Delphi）,确定了与国家公园效果相关的28个评价指标,同时以功能为主导,将评价指标归纳为5个功能指标群：保护功能指标群（7个评价指标）、科研功能指标群（6个评价指标）、游憩功能指标群（7个评价指标）、教育功能指标群（4个评价指标）和经济发展功能指标群（4个评价指标）,通过对评价指标的赋分（5分制原则）和计算权重,从而达到国家公园效果评价的量化,实现对国家公园建设效果的评价。     

物种敏感度分布的非参数核密度估计模型

针对目前物种敏感度分布参数方法建模所存在的缺点,首次提出基于非参数核密度估计方法的物种敏感度分布模型,并提出相应的最优窗宽和检验方法。选用无机汞作为案例研究对象,利用非参数核密度估计方法和3种传统参数模型分别推导了保护我国水生生物的无机汞的急性水质基准值。结果表明,非参数核密度估计方法在推导无机汞水质基准中的稳健性和精确度都大大优于传统参数模型,能够更好地构建物种敏感度分布曲线。该方法的提出丰富了水质基准的理论方法学,为更好地保护水生生物提供了有力的支撑。     

室内空气中总挥发性有机物(TVOCs)的污染

随着经济的发展和人们生活品质的提高,室内空气污染逐渐成为人们最为关心的环境问题之一,其中室内空气中总挥发性有机物的污染是室内空气污染中重要组成部分。因此,在参考了国内外大量文献的基础上,对总挥发性有机物的定义、来源、质量标准、测定方法、健康效应以及防治对策进行了综述。     

Spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for multicriteria-based vulnerability assessment

This research analyses the application of spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for GIS (Geographic Information System) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) within a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment regarding flooding in the Salzach river catchment in Austria. The research methodology is based on a spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of GIS-CDA for an assessment of the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. The main objective of this research is to demonstrate how a unified approach of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can be applied to minimise the associated uncertainty within each dimension of the vulnerability assessment. The methodology proposed for achieving this objective is composed of four main steps. The first step is computing criteria weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In the second step, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to calculate the uncertainties associated with AHP weights. In the third step, the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is employed in the form of a model-independent method of output variance decomposition, in which the variability of the different vulnerability assessments is apportioned to every criterion weight, generating one first-order (S) and one total effect (ST) sensitivity index map per criterion weight. Finally, in the fourth step, an ordered weighted averaging method is applied to model the final vulnerability maps. The results of this research demonstrate the robustness of spatially explicit GSA for minimising the uncertainty associated with GIS-MCDA models. Based on these results, we conclude that applying the variance-based GSA enables assessment of the importance of each input factor for the results of the GIS-MCDA method, both spatially and statistically, thus allowing us to introduce and recommend GIS-based GSA as a useful methodology for minimising the uncertainty of GIS-MCDA.