“两高一资”行业定量化判定标准研究

在国家管理制度和管理政策体系整体趋向精细化工的大背景下,结合环保科研的科学性和现行管理体制下各部门与环保相关职能和政策体系设置的可操作性二者的共同需求,以典型水环境污染物和大气污染物为例,在界定污染因子范围的基础上,基于产排污强度、产排污总量、产排污浓度、污染物治理达标成本和污染物毒性等相关定量指标,提出一整套兼顾科学性与可操作性、且便于进行横向和纵向对比的"两高一资"行业定量化判定标准体系,并以石化、纺织和轻工等行业中的典型"高污染"产品为例对此套判定标准进行了验证,证实了其科学性和可操作性,为今后科学地开展行业环保工作、有针对性地发挥相关政策在促进工业领域节能减排方面政策实效提供了共同的技术基础和连接点。     

七大流域氨氮水生生物水质基准与生态风险评估初探

氨氮是我国流域水环境管理的国控指标之一,为评估不同流域的氨氮基准差异性,以七大流域(松花江流域、辽河流域、海河流域、黄河流域、淮河流域、长江流域和珠江流域)为研究对象,基于水质参数对氨氮毒性的影响,借鉴US EPA(美国国家环境保护局)水环境基准技术方法,分夏季和非夏季2种情况推算了各流域氨氮水生生物基准值. 结果显示:①流域和季节的不同导致氨氮基准值的差异均很明显,不同流域的氨氮基准值差异可超过6倍,同一流域不同季节的氨氮基准值差异可超过2倍. ②淮河流域夏季和非夏季氨氮基准值均为最低,夏季氨氮急、慢性基准值分别为0.37和0.06 mg/L,非夏季分别为0.81和0.15 mg/L. ③氨氮暴露生态风险初步评估结果表明,珠江流域风险较小;松花江流域、辽河流域、长江流域次之;黄河流域风险较大;海河流域和淮河流域风险最大,海河7个断面中有2个存在高风险,淮河27个断面中16个存在高风险. 根据各流域不同季节氨氮基准值及氨氮暴露生态风险的差异,建议对不同流域、不同季节实行差异化管理.      

水环境质量基准、标准与流域水污染物总量控制策略

辨析了水环境质量基准与标准的概念差异,指出了它们对水污染物总量控制的作用.全面总结了美国水环境质量基准与标准的制定过程与方法,并对比分析了国内外水质标准体系在组成、保护功能、制定方法上的不同,以及水质标准在水污染物总量控制的应用情况.分析表明:水质标准是在水质基准基础上依据水体功能来确定的,水质基准是制定标准的基本依据.当前水质基准主要包括毒理学基准和生态学基准2类,基准值主要采用生态毒理学、调查统计分析方法确定,水生态分区是制定生态学基准的区域单元.从水质标准与总量控制的关系上看,基于水质标准的总量控制是当前水污染控制的发展趋势,并且水质标准体系的内容和组成正在不断发展和完善,保障水生态系统和人体健康安全将是水质标准要保护的核心功能.最后,提出了我国水环境质量基准和标准的发展对策及方向.      

流域水质目标管理技术研究(Ⅱ)——水环境基准、标准与总量控制

水环境质量基准与标准是有效实施环境水质目标的主要基础和管理依据. 明确了水环境质量基准与标准的基本概念,系统地介绍了国外水环境质量基准与标准的研究、使用现状以及我国流域水环境污染和环境标准建立的特征,阐述了水环境质量基准与标准在环境毒理学评估、污染物风险识别、水生态污染效应、沉积物质量控制研究等方面的应用与发展趋势. 结合我国水环境质量基准与标准研究的实际,提出了建立我国在新型污染物和复合污染水质基准两方面的研究内容,并对我国水质基准支持条件下的水生态安全以及污染物总量控制研究做进一步探讨.       

非离子有机物淡水沉积物质量基准推导方法——以林丹为例

沉积物质量基准是对水质基准的补充,对水质管理有重要意义.国际上有多种建立沉积物质量基准的方法,其中,相平衡分配法是美国环境保护局推荐使用的方法之一.相平衡分配法利用污染物的沉积物-水平衡分配系数(Kp)和水质基准中污染物的最终慢性毒性值(FCV)计算污染物的沉积物质量基准值(SQC).当缺乏污染物的沉积物生物毒性效应数...     

《海水水质标准(GB3097—1997)》定值的合理性浅析——以铅和甲基对硫磷为例

基于物种敏感度分布曲线法,推导了铅和甲基对硫磷的海水水质基准低值和高值,并与《海水水质标准(GB 3097—1997)》中铅和甲基对硫磷的相关标准限值进行了比较,结果表明目前尚缺乏充分的科学证据说明我国现行的海水水质标准可以为我国海洋环境中大多数水生生物提供适当的保护,不同污染物的标准定值存在着一定程度的"欠保护"和"过保护"的问题。此外,结合我国近岸海水水质监测资料,在剖析了海水水质标准定值的合理性的基础上,对我国今后的海水水质基准和标准的研究进行了展望,给出了相应的对策和建议。     

Estimation of gaseous criteria air pollutants from road transport system in Lagos metropolis of Nigeria

Ambient air pollution by vehicular emissions is underestimated, especially in the major cities of Nigeria. The buildup of the emissions in the atmosphere is a major health concern. This study estimated the emissions of gaseous criteria air pollutants (CAPs) from the road transport system in the Lagos metropolis from the year 2004 to 2007. The study also determined the ground‐level concentrations of these pollutants for the years under review. Estimation of the emission rates of all types of vehicles was performed using an emission factor approach, while the ground‐level concentrations of the CAPs were determined using the Industrial Source Complex Short Term 3 view model. The results showed that the mean concentrations of carbon monoxide in the ambient air were 26,741.12, 31,675.95, 54,515.48, and 72,388.09 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m³) for years 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively, while the estimated concentrations for oxides of nitrogen were 1,377.91 μg/m³ for year 2004, and 1,620.76, 2,897.33, and 3,839.68 μg/m³, respectively, for the years 2005, 2006, and 2007. The estimated concentrations of sulfur dioxide during the study period were 51,354.16, 57,244.76, 113,083.26, and 136,332.01 μg/m³ for 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively. For volatile organic compounds, the estimated concentrations were 3,839.68, 6,839.65, 7,067.62, and 8,431.35 μg/m³ for years 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively. The results also show that the maximum ground‐level concentrations were highest along the roadside, and the average CAPs concentrations and cumulative exposure concentrations that were estimated throughout the study period are a major health concern, as these concentrations are several times higher than international limits.     

Prediction of probability of fatality due to brain injury in traffic accidents

Abstract

Objective: Fatal brain injuries result from physiological changes in brain tissues, subsequent to primary damage caused by head impact. Although efforts have been made in past studies to estimate the probability of brain injury, none of them involved prediction of such physiological changes. The goal of this study was to evaluate the fatality prediction capability of a novel approach that predicts an increase in intracranial pressure (ICP) due to primary head injury to estimate the fatality rate using clinical data that correlate ICP with fatality rate.

Methods: A total of 12 sets of head acceleration time histories were used to represent no, severe, and fatal brain injury. They were obtained from the literature presenting head kinematics data in noninjurious volunteer sled tests or from accident reconstruction for severe and fatal injury cases. These were first applied to a Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) head–brain model to predict nodal displacement time histories of the brain, which were then fed into FEBio to predict ICP. A Weibull distribution was applied to the data for the relationship between fatality rate and ICP obtained from a clinical paper to estimate fatality rate from ICP (procedure A). Fatality rate was also estimated by applying the temporal and spatial maximum value of maximum principal strain (MPS_max) obtained from the GHBMC simulation to an injury probability function for MPS_max (procedure B). Estimated fatality rates were compared between the 2 procedures.

Results: Both procedures estimated higher average fatality rate for higher injury severity. The average fatality rate for procedure A without ischemia representation and procedure B was 72.4 and 51.0% for the fatal injury group and 8.2 and 21.7% for the severe injury group, respectively, showing that procedure A provides more distinct classification between fatal and nonfatal brain injury. It was also found that representation of ischemia in procedure A provides results sensitive to injury severity and impact conditions, requiring further validation of the initial estimate for the relationship between brain compression and ischemic cell death.

Conclusions: Prediction of the probability of fatality by means of a combination of simulations of the primary brain deformation and subsequent ICP increase was found to be more distinct compared to the prediction of primary injury alone combined with the injury probability function from a past study in the select 12 head impact cases.     

Societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines based on incident data from the United States

A significant number of pipeline operators use pipeline integrity management (PIM) to improve pipeline safety and reliability. Risk assessment is a critical step in PIM, because it determines the necessity of conducting the following steps in PIM for certain pipelines. Risk acceptance criteria are required in the process of risk assessment. Individual risk and societal risk are most frequently adopted as the two indicators of the risk acceptance criteria. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, quantitative societal risk acceptance criteria, especially for gas distribution pipelines, do not exit. The aim of this paper is to establish the societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines. Hence, FN curves were established using historical incident data from 2002 to 2017 provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). Linear regression and the ALARP principle are used in evaluating the limits of the negligible line and intolerable line to obtain a graphical societal risk acceptance criterion for gas distribution pipelines. A line having a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 8.413 × 10⁻⁷) is proposed as the negligible line. Further, the intolerable line has a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 2.524 × 10⁻⁶). Both the negligible risk and the intolerable risk for the gas distribution pipeline are lower than the current societal risk acceptance criteria for hazardous installations. The reasons for these relatively lower risk acceptance criteria are discussed.     

实测/预测辽河铬(Ⅵ)水生生物基准与风险评估

该研究对辽河流域重金属铬(Ⅵ)的水生生物毒性数据进行搜集与筛选,推导辽河流域铬(Ⅵ)的水生生物基准值,并对辽河流域25个采样点位采集水样,测定铬(Ⅵ)的环境暴露浓度,最后对辽河流域水生生物铬(Ⅵ)暴露的潜在风险进行评估.此外,采用美国环境保护署(US EPA)物种种间关系估算模型(ICE)对辽河流域物种毒性值进行预测,并对基于预测毒性值的水生生物基准进行推导.结果表明,辽河流域基于实测毒性数据的水生生物急性基准值(CMC)为17.73μg·L-1,慢性基准值(CCC)为12.15μg·L-1;ICE模型预测的辽河流域生物毒性值推导的CMC值为13.97μg·L-1,实测CMC值与预测值比较接近,表明ICE模型可应用于水生生物基准值的预测.铬(Ⅵ)的水质分析结果表明25个采样点位水体铬(Ⅵ)浓度较低,均达到GB 3838-2002地表水质标准中铬(Ⅵ)的Ⅰ类或Ⅱ类标准,水质状况良好;然而,在对水生生物的潜在风险方面,通过生态风险评估得出7月辽河流域25个点位中环境暴露值超过慢性基准CCC值的有7个,12月超过慢性基准CCC值的有6个,表明辽河流域个别点位铬(Ⅵ)暴露可能会对水生生物产生不可接受的风险.