北疆地区MODIS 3km气溶胶光学厚度与PM10质量浓度的相关性分析

利用2016年MODIS 3 km分辨率的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)日产品、PM_(10)质量浓度以及相关气象数据,开展了北疆地区AOD与PM_(10)质量浓度的相关性分析.结果表明,AOD与PM_(10)质量浓度的直接相关程度较低,相关系数仅为0.294.对比分析了利用能见度数据对AOD进行垂直订正,然后再用相对湿度数据对其进行二次订正(AOD垂直-湿度订正)和利用能见度数据对AOD进行垂直订正和相对湿度数据对PM_(10)质量浓度进行订正(AOD垂直订正-PM_(10)湿度订正)两种订正方法,结果指出"AOD垂直订正-PM_(10)湿度订正"可显著提高二者之间的相关性.订正之后,北疆地区AOD与PM_(10)质量浓度的相关系数达到0.755,呈显著正相关;阿勒泰的订正效果最好,相关系数为0.837.最后,基于垂直订正后的AOD和湿度订正后PM_(10)建立两者之间的最优拟合模型,并利用新建的模型反演了北疆地区PM_(10)质量浓度.反演得到的PM_(10)质量浓度与经过湿度订正后PM_(10)呈显著正相关,相关系数为0.688;昌吉和伊宁的反演效果最好,相关系数分别为0.910和0.829.本研究结果表明MODIS 3 km AOD产品经过垂直和湿度订正后,可作为北疆地区监测PM_(10)质量浓度的一个有效手段.     

中国东部AOD等级变化及与东亚夏季风的联系

利用2000年3月～2017年1月Terra卫星反演的最新版本C06的MODIS气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）、NCEP fnl全球业务分析数据、CMAP降水、CERES SYN1deg Ed4月平均资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,依据区域平均AOD距平的显著年际变化特征,将历年AOD划分为5个不同的污染等级,并探讨了不同污染等级的局地成因及其与季风环流的联系.结果表明,夏季中国东部地区AOD异常偏大与地面风速小、中高层季风环流系统不利于气溶胶扩散有关.气溶胶污染最重（最轻）时,气溶胶与到达地面的太阳短波辐射、地面气温、风速及降水存在密切联系;在其他污染等级下,除了与到达地面的短波辐射有密切关系外,与其他量的联系并不明显.气溶胶污染严重时,到达地面的太阳短波辐射相对减小,地面气温异常偏低,低层大气冷却,地面风速减小,地面降水呈现南多北少的变化特征;反之,气溶胶污染较轻时,到达地面的太阳短波辐射相对增加,地面气温异常偏高,低层大气加热,地面风速增大,地面降水呈现南少北多的变化特征.     

崂山风景区酸沉降临界负荷的计算

近年来,崂山风景区酸雨频率虽然呈降低趋势,但酸沉降对景区生态环境仍存在潜在的威胁。本文基于不同标准,应用简单质量平衡(SMB)法,确定了崂山土壤的酸沉降临界负荷。结果表明:崂山的酸度临界负荷、潜在酸度临界负荷、氮临界负荷、硫临界负荷和地表水酸度临界负荷分别为1.53 keq/(hm2.a),0.32 keq/(hm2.a),0.47 keq/(hm2.a),2.84 keq/(hm2.a),0.44 keq/(hm2.a),确定了风景区生态环境对酸沉降的最大允许负荷,从而为控制酸性物质的排放量提供了理论依据。     

青藏铁路临界翻车风速研究

分析了青藏铁路沿线不同季节大风平均风速、最大风速和超过8级风天数。由于空气密度随海拔上升而减小,大风对铁路运输安全的影响与低海拔地区差异较大。笔者利用车辆动力学原理建立了列车的临界翻车风速模型,研究了高寒铁路不同海拔地区和冻土地区的临界翻车风速。研究结果表明:青藏高寒铁路临界翻车风速随海拔升高而增大,而随冻土路基病害出现而降低的规律。参考英、日等国大风标准,结合青藏高原的特点,根据危险翻车风速和临界翻车风速,首次提出青藏高原铁路海拔4000m地区安全行车标准。     

化学放热系统热爆炸潜在危险性评价

讨论化学放热系统的热稳定性和临界条件,用化学反应物无消耗的假设推导化学放热系统热失控(热爆炸)时的动力学参数临界值,得到热失控的判据、临界点火温度和熄火温度。提出用系统安全指数概念来评价放热反应系统发生热爆炸的潜在危险性,分析化学放热系统的平衡域。用硝酸甲酯分解爆炸实例,说明如何利用安全指数对具有热爆炸可能性的系统的潜在危险性进行定量评价,其预测结果与实验结果一致。     

土地利用变化对地表径流深度影响的模拟研究--以深圳地区为例

结合基于遥感数据获得的土地利用结果与SCS水文模型,在GIS环境下模拟了深圳地区城市化不同阶段土地利用变化对地表径流深度的影响.结果表明:在深圳城市化的不同阶段,由土地利用变化所引起的地表径流深度的变化亦有所不同.在假设24h降水200mm的情景下,1980至1988年间,深圳地区城市化使其扩张地区的地表径流深度减少了0.33mm,而在1988至1994年和1994至2000年这两个阶段,城市化则使其扩张地区的地表径流深度分别增加了6.96mm和0.69mm.     

积雪灾害防治中的积雪深度与风速的计算

为防止积雪灾害的发生或采取必要的防治措施,必须弄清积雪灾害特征,分析积雪的影响因素,研究积雪灾害的发生机理,理顺积雪灾害的类型,探讨积雪灾害发生的规模,以确保工程建设及人民生命安全。降水量是积雪灾害首要因素,是积雪灾害物质的来源;气温的高低是造成积雪的前提;风不仅对水汽和降雪有影响,而且对积雪有再分配的作用;降雪量直接影响积雪分布,地形、风向、风速(风力)、植被、坡向等对积雪分布也有一定影响。在分析研究灾害积雪的特征、类型、影响因素、发生机制、规模以及发生的规律等同时,探讨了最大积雪深度、最大风速的计算方法。通过定量计算,为研究积雪灾害的防治提供依据。     

Reinventing marine spatial planning: a critical review of initiatives worldwide

ABSTRACT

Although marine spatial planning (MSP) is increasingly being applied worldwide, it appears to be based on an ambiguity that has arisen from its dichotomous role of ensuring both conservation and development. This elusive ideal hints at a possible discrepancy between theory and practice. This paper explores the hypothesis that beyond a performative narrative, MSP is actually better described as a variety of devices which fulfil other roles and converge in terms of planning type. To test this hypothesis, this paper analyses the content of past and present MSP initiatives from around the world. The findings show that these initiatives view MSP either as a strategic sectoral spatial planning tool or strategic planning tool, brought in to complement existing initiatives. Furthermore, these two approaches can actually be seen to converge in the type of planning used, through the role attributed to spatial aspects, and more specifically in the place given to zoning. There are two key implications of these findings: the need to open up theoretical debates more broadly to different disciplinary perspectives on MSP; and the need for crucial choices to be made to ensure that MSP does not become an illusion behind which other agendas lie.

Highlights

• Several scientific communities are working on MSP in parallel

• MSP does not in reality fulfil its theoretical objectives, but it fulfils other roles

• We make a critical review of 44 experiences of MSP from throughout the world

• Different forms of MSP generally make similar uses of zoning

• MSP is both illusory and necessary and must engage a critical turn

     

INTEGRATING PHOSPHORUS AND NITROGEN DECISION MANAGEMENT AT WATERSHED SCALES1

ABSTRACT: The persistence of water quality problems has directed attention towards the reduction of agricultural nonpoint sources of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N). We assessed the practical impact of three management scenarios to reduce P and N losses from a mixed land use watershed in central Pennsylvania, USA. Using Scenario 1 (an agronomic soil P threshold of 100 mg Mehlich‐3 P kg^‐1, above which no crop response is expected), 81 percent of our watershed would receive no P as fertilizer or manure. Under Scenario 2 (an environmental soil P threshold of 195 mg Mehlich‐3 P kg^‐1, above which the loss of P in surface runoff and subsurface drainage increases greatly), restricts future P inputs in only 51 percent of the watershed. Finally, using scenario 3 (P and N indices that account for likely source and transport risks), 25 percent of the watershed was at high risk or greater of P loss, while 60 percent of the watershed was classified as of high risk of nitrate (NO₃) leaching. Areas at risk of P loss were near the stream channel, while areas at risk of NO₃ leaching were near the boundaries of the watershed, where freely draining soils and high manure and fertilizer N applications coincide. Remedial measures to minimize P export should focus on critical source areas, while remedial measures to reduce N losses should be source based, concentrating on more efficient use of N by crops.     

Stream Temperature Surges Under Urbanization and Climate Change: Data,Models, and Responses1

ABSTRACT: Multiple anthropogenic stressors, including increased watershed imperviousness, destruction of the riparian vegetation, increased siltation, and changes in climate, will impact streams over the coming century. These stressors will alter water temperature, thus influencing ecological processes and stream biota. Quantitative tools are needed to predict the magnitude and direction of altered thermal regimes. Here, empirical relationships were derived to complement a simple model of in‐stream temperature [developed by Caissie et al. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 25 (1998) 250; Journal of Hydrology 251 (2001) 14], including seasonal temperature shifts linked to land use, and temperature surges linked to localized rainstorms; surges in temperature averaged about 3.5°C and dissipated over about 3 h. These temperature surges occurred frequently at the most urbanized sites (up to 10% of summer days) and could briefly increase maximum temperature by >7°C. The combination of empirical relationships and model show that headwater streams may be more pervasively impacted by urbanization than by climate change, although the two stressors reinforce each other. A profound community shift, from common cold and coolwater species to some of the many warmwater species currently present in smaller numbers, may be expected, as shown by a count of days on which temperature exceeds the “good growth” range for coldwater species.