TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

Assessing the Effects of Alternative Setback Channel Constraint Scenarios Employing a River Meander Migration Model

River channel migration and cutoff events within large river riparian corridors create heterogeneous and biologically diverse landscapes. However, channel stabilization (riprap and levees) impede the formation and maintenance of riparian areas. These impacts can be mitigated by setting channel constraints away from the channel. Using a meander migration model to measure land affected, we examined the relationship between setback distance and riparian and off-channel aquatic habitat formation on a 28-km reach of the Sacramento River, California, USA. We simulated 100 years of channel migration and cutoff events using 11 setback scenarios: 1 with existing riprap and 10 assuming setback constraints from about 0.5 to 4 bankfull channel widths (bankfull width: 235 m) from the channel. The percentage of land reworked by the river in 100 years relative to current (riprap) conditions ranged from 172% for the 100-m constraint setback scenario to 790% for the 800-m scenario. Three basic patterns occur as the setback distance increases due to different migration and cutoff dynamics: complete restriction of cutoffs, partial restriction of cutoffs, and no restriction of cutoffs. Complete cutoff restriction occurred at distances less than about one bankfull channel width (235 m), and no cutoff restriction occurred at distances greater than about three bankfull widths (∼700 m). Managing for point bars alone allows the setbacks to be narrower than managing for cutoffs and aquatic habitat. Results suggest that site-specific “restriction of cutoff” thresholds can be identified to optimize habitat benefits versus cost of acquired land along rivers affected by migration processes.     

CO2浓度增加对作物影响的研究动态

大气CO2浓度不断增加将以两种方式影响作物的代谢、生长发育和产量的形成：一是通过温室效应“加热”气候,改变降水类型,进而影响作物;二是浓度变化本身对作物生理过程的影响。介绍了国内外近年来在与CO2浓度有关的作物生理实验方面取得的进展及其主要结果。     

亚洲大陆2000～2002年春季大气沙尘时空特征的数值模拟

将矿物沙尘释放与沉降模式和全球大气化学传输模式相耦合,建立了一个能够完整描述沙尘的扬起、输送和沉降动态过程的模式系统,并利用实时气象资料强迫该模式,对2000、2001和2002年春季(3～5月)亚洲大气沙尘时空特征进行了数值模拟研究.结果表明,模拟的3年春季平均大气柱沙尘浓度分布与地面观测的3年春季平均沙尘暴频率分布范围基本吻合,模拟的沙尘气溶胶光学厚度与卫星观测的气溶胶指数具有显著的相关性,验证了该模式对亚洲沙尘的扬起、传输和沉降过程及大气沙尘载荷时空特征有较好的模拟能力,并基于模拟的沙尘释放通量与沙尘气溶胶光学厚度的相关分析,探讨了亚洲沙尘可能的传输路径.     

居住区地下车库噪声在建筑群间的传播和影响模拟计算

针对城市居住区2种典型的建筑布局,结合随机点声源模型,对居住区内地下车库噪声影响进行了分析计算.通过实测值和预测值的比较,该预测模型精度较好.运用该模型预测规划与新建的居住区地下车库的噪声的影响,可为城市小区建设规划中有效控制噪声污染提供科学依据.     

基于SHERPA的环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估

分析了SHERPA综合评价模型的基本原理和主要建模理念,重点介绍了其在环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估方面的作用,以及在排放源与受体关系(SRR)方面的处理方法,比较了其与欧盟常用的其他情景模拟模型的优缺点。SHERPA模型的特点是空间灵活性较好,对于任何给定地点,可以快速评估不同地区对该研究地点空气质量的影响。SHERPA模型的3个主要功能为污染物来源分析、决策支持和情景模拟。基于SHERPA模型对法国环境空气中PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)和NO_2年均浓度进行污染来源分析、决策支持分析和减排情景模拟评估,展示了模型在环境治理措施优先级筛选和政府间联合治理措施协调建议方面的功能和作用,以期为中国环境空气质量预测预报、环境质量管理措施的制定和成效评估等环境服务与管理工作提供借鉴。     

火源位置对L型管廊电缆火灾影响规律的数值模拟研究

选取某城市L型综合管廊电缆舱为研究对象,采用FDS数值模拟软件研究了不同火源位置对L型管廊电缆火灾温度纵向衰减规律、烟气浓度分布规律及烟气危害性的影响。研究结果表明,L型廊道构型影响了不同火源位置的管廊电缆火灾最高温度纵向衰减的连续性,基于热边界层理论提出了适用于L型管廊的二维平面最高温度纵向衰减模型。基于峰宽时间计算了L型管廊火灾的烟气总危害性参数,不同火源位置的烟气危害性总在靠近管廊节点位置处最低。这些结果可对综合管廊的消防设计与火灾防控提供参考。     

我国典型土壤对病毒等温静态吸附的数值模拟

通过室内等温静态批量平衡吸附实验,采用3种常见的等温线（Freundlich方程、Langmuir方程和Temkin方程）对2种病毒（MS2和X174）在2种处理（非灭菌和灭菌）条件下的6种土壤（红壤土、红粘土、乌栅土、黄泥土、沙质潮土和壤质潮土）中的吸附行为进行了回归拟合.实验结果和模拟结果均表明,土壤性质、病毒性质、土壤中的土著微生物对病毒在土壤中吸附行为均具有重要的影响.红粘土对MS2和X174的平均吸附比例几乎能达到100％,而2种潮土（沙质潮土和壤质潮土）相对较弱;总体来看土壤对X174的吸附能力高于MS2,但灭菌后的土壤对MS2的吸附能力却高于X174.在数值模拟中,Freundlich方程和Langmuir方程均具有理想的相关性.Freundlich方程能够表现出病毒浓度对其在土壤中吸附行为的影响;尽管Langmuir方程能够应用于土壤对病毒吸附能力的比较,但本研究中不能应用Langmuir方程来计算土壤对病毒的最大吸附量.     

汽油机冷启动时燃油蒸发多参数影响研究

采用CFD商用软件STAR-CD对汽油机冷启动过程中燃油蒸发进行三维数值模拟,研究了油滴初直径、油滴初速度、进气温度、燃油温度、喷射定时和转速对燃油蒸发率的影响规律.计算结果表明,进气温度、燃油温度和转速对燃油蒸发有重要影响.进气门开时,在进气温度为-7℃和90℃时,蒸发率分别为5.7%和25.0%;相应地,在燃油温度为0℃和60℃时,燃油蒸发率分别为5.7%和22.0%.油滴初直径和喷射定时对燃油蒸发率有一定影响,油滴初速度对燃油蒸发率影响很小.     

基于WARMF模型的杭埠-丰乐河流域水文模拟研究

研究了WARMF模型在杭埠-丰乐河流域(巢湖流域最大支流)的水文模拟适应性能并进行了流域水文系统分析.利用AVSWAT2000模型将流域划分为37个子流域,利用流域地貌-土壤分布对应关系、土壤剖面结构、地下水位埋深等条件,确定了子流域的平面分组与剖面土层结构,较大程度上降低了流域模型参数校准的难度与不确定性.利用2000～2003年的水文观测数据,在参数灵敏度分析基础上,对模型水文参数进行了校准与检验.结果表明,WARMF在研究区具有较好的适应性能.WARMF模型与AVSWAT2000模型的水文模拟结果对比表明,WARMF模型具有更好的日拟合性能.基于模型的模拟结果,在空间尺度上定量分析了流域从降水开始到入湖的水循环过程,在时间尺度上分析了年内降雨、径流的分布及其对应关系.流域概化、模型的校准与检验以及流域水文时空变化的系统分析方法等对流域水文、环境的模拟研究与系统分析具有探索意义.