Modeling scale up of anthropogenic impacts from individual pollinator behavior to pollination systems

Understanding how anthropogenic disturbances affect plant–pollinator systems has important implications for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Previous laboratory studies show that pesticides and pathogens, which have been implicated in the rapid global decline of pollinators over recent years, can impair behavioral processes needed for pollinators to adaptively exploit floral resources and effectively transfer pollen among plants. However, the potential for these sublethal stressor effects on pollinator–plant interactions at the individual level to scale up into changes to the dynamics of wild plant and pollinator populations at the system level remains unclear. We developed an empirically parameterized agent-based model of a bumblebee pollination system called SimBee to test for effects of stressor-induced decreases in the memory capacity and information processing speed of individual foragers on bee abundance (scenario 1), plant diversity (scenario 2), and bee–plant system stability (scenario 3) over 20 virtual seasons. Modeling of a simple pollination network of a bumblebee and four co-flowering bee-pollinated plant species indicated that bee decline and plant species extinction events could occur when only 25% of the forager population showed cognitive impairment. Higher percentages of impairment caused 50% bee loss in just five virtual seasons and system-wide extinction events in less than 20 virtual seasons under some conditions. Plant species extinctions occurred regardless of bee population size, indicating that stressor-induced changes to pollinator behavior alone could drive species loss from plant communities. These findings indicate that sublethal stressor effects on pollinator behavioral mechanisms, although seemingly insignificant at the level of individuals, have the cumulative potential in principle to degrade plant–pollinator species interactions at the system level. Our work highlights the importance of an agent-based modeling approach for the identification and mitigation of anthropogenic impacts on plant–pollinator systems.     

A hybrid Wavelet-CNN-LSTM deep learning model for short-term urban water demand forecasting

● A novel deep learning framework for short-term water demand forecasting. ● Model prediction accuracy outperforms other traditional deep learning models. ● Wavelet multi-resolution analysis automatically extracts key water demand features. ● An analysis is performed to explain the improved mechanism of the proposed method. Short-term water demand forecasting provides guidance on real-time water allocation in the water supply network, which help water utilities reduce energy cost and avoid potential accidents. Although a variety of methods have been proposed to improve forecast accuracy, it is still difficult for statistical models to learn the periodic patterns due to the chaotic nature of the water demand data with high temporal resolution. To overcome this issue from the perspective of improving data predictability, we proposed a hybrid Wavelet-CNN-LSTM model, that combines time-frequency decomposition characteristics of Wavelet Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA) and implement it into an advanced deep learning model, CNN-LSTM. Four models - ANN, Conv1D, LSTM, GRUN - are used to compare with Wavelet-CNN-LSTM, and the results show that Wavelet-CNN-LSTM outperforms the other models both in single-step and multi-steps prediction. Besides, further mechanistic analysis revealed that MRA produce significant effect on improving model accuracy.     

Historical survey and the cultivation of a new culture regarding the ecology in China's Western Provinces

The Chinese leadership in recent years has clearly indicated that priority will be given to the development of the western provinces. In view of its under-developed economy, the relative poor education of the population and the extensive mode of development, environmental pollution and ecological damage in western China are more serious than in the east. In China's industrialization process in the modern era, the blind imitation of the initial stage of industrialization in the advanced countries and the total rejection of traditional Chinese cultural values have been particularly striking. Hence, the western provinces should adopt a mode of sustainable development based on establishment of an ecological culture. Environmentalists in China would like to concentrate on reforming the modes of production and the people's lifestyles through changing their views and values. They perceive this as the major commitment for building an ecological culture and promoting sustainable development. But large-scale and concentrated damage to the environment are very often the result of neglect and mistakes by government authorities and corporations. Pessimists worry that this millennium will signal the terminal stage for natural values; but there may be an alternative: a millennium of coordinated development, respecting the environment and based on adoption of a new ecological culture.     

I will not go,I cannot go: cultural and social limitations of disaster preparedness in Asia,Africa, and Oceania

While much work has been invested in addressing the economic and technical basis of disaster preparedness, less effort has been directed towards understanding the cultural and social obstacles to and opportunities for disaster risk reduction. This paper presents local insights from five different national settings into the cultural and social contexts of disaster preparedness. In most cases, an early warning system was in place, but it failed to alert people to diverse environmental shocks. The research findings show that despite geographical and typological differences in these locations, the limitations of the systems were fairly similar. In Kenya, people received warnings, but from contradictory systems, whereas in the Philippines and on the island of Saipan, people did not understand the messages or take them seriously. In Bangladesh and Nepal, however, a deeper cultural and religious reasoning serves to explain disasters, and how to prevent them or find safety when they strike.     

三峡工程淹没区文物古迹的价值评估（二）

文物价值是客观的,是文物本身固有的。依据三峡工程淹没区内文物古迹的特定地位,阐明了其文物价值,不应仅从现定文物级别下定论,还应立足于三峡地区本身的历史,文化及地理背影从历史,艺术,科学等各方面去识别,评价。     

抓住机遇 迎接挑战 协同发展 "天人合一"

论述了中国入世对长江流域可持续发展所带来的影响、机遇和挑战，讨论了可持续发展思想的内涵及影响长江流域可持续发展的重要问题。认为可持续发展思想应包含：当代人要重视发展和持续性，不断提高人群生活质量和资源环境的承载能力，满足当代人的需求又不损害后代人的需求，满足一个地区、国家的需求又不损害别的地区、国家的需求，并努力补救上代人所留下的资源、环境创伤。我们应认识七种要素：人口、资源、环境、经济、社会、知识和文化之间的内在关系，必须协同处理。自然资源是发展的基础。中国开展环境保护工作已有20多年，特别是改革开放以来取得很多进展，目前需对严重环境问题采取更有力的措施。讨论了中国入世后面临的企业、农业、人才资源、高新技术产业、政府管理体制的创新和法制建设等问题，并着重研究了可持续发展文明观、加强绿色管理和绿色产品开发、知识经济和环保产业等关键问题。     

Insights for Integrated Conservation from Attitudes of People toward Protected Areas Near Hwange National Park,Zimbabwe

Increase in human settlements at the edge of protected areas (PAs) is perceived as a major threat to conservation of biodiversity. Although it is crucial to integrate the interests of surrounding communities into PA management, key drivers of changes in local populations and the effects of conservation on local livelihoods and perceptions remain poorly understood. We assessed population changes from 1990 to 2010 in 9 villages located between 2 PAs with different management policies (access to natural resources or not). We conducted semi‐directive interviews at the household level (n =217) to document reasons for settlement in the area and villager's attitudes toward the PAs. We examined drivers of these attitudes relative to household typology, feelings about conservation, and concerns for the future with mixed linear models. Population increased by 61% from 2000 to 2010, a period of political and economic crisis in Zimbabwe. Forty‐seven percent of immigrants were attracted by the area; others had been resettled from other villages or were returning to family lands. Attitudes toward PAs were generally positive, but immigrants attracted by the area and who used resources within the PA with fewer restrictions expressed more negative attitudes toward PAs. Household location, losses due to wild animals, and restrictions on access to natural resources were the main drivers of this negative attitude. Profit‐seeking migrants did not expect these constraints and were particularly concerned with local overpopulation and access to natural resources. To avoid socio‐ecological traps near PAs (i.e., unforeseen reduced adaptive capacity) integrated conservation should address mismatches between management policy and local expectations. This requires accounting for endogenous processes, for example, local socio‐ecological dynamics and values that shape the coexistence between humans and wildlife. Percepciones para Conservación Integrada a Partir de las Actitudes de las Personas hacia Áreas Protegidas cerca del Parque Nacional Hwangem Zimbabwe     

酸雨对混凝土建筑物和文物损坏机理的研究

介绍了酸雨对混凝土建筑物和文物损坏机理的宏观分析,水泥中加入少量石膏,可延缓凝结时间,但当加入量大,将引起水泥膨胀,以致溃裂,探讨了酸雨对混凝土建筑物与文物损坏的微观分析,特别是酸雨等生成各种硫酸盐,通过从化学反应原理上分析了酸雨中二氧化硫与混凝土中钙离子反应生成石膏机理,从石膏特性上探讨了酸雨对混凝土建筑物和文物侵蚀机制,并由此提出了酸雨条件下保护混凝土建筑物和文物应对措施。     

陕西省非物质文化遗产旅游开发与生态环境影响研究

陕西省近几年谋求转型发展,致力于将旅游业转换成为陕西省新兴支柱产业,并使其成为陕西转型升级的突破口,进而打造文化旅游大省.陕西省非物质文化遗产旅游资源丰富,在竞争中独具优势,市场前景广阔.因旅游开发起步晚,关注度低,存在着一定程度的欠缺.文章通过研究陕西省非物质文化遗产旅游资源的空间分布,同时采用网络文本分析法分析游客感知,认为应更多的关注游客认知与反馈,提高游客认同感,从而提出陕西省非物质文化遗产旅游的开发模式.     

Managing Indirect Environmental Impact within Local Authorities' Standardized Environmental Management Systems

Abstract

Many local authorities use standardized environmental management systems (EMSs) to improve their environmental management. These authorities often find it difficult to manage environmental impact caused by their exercise of authority i.e. indirect environmental impact (IEI) within their EMSs. Since this is connected to their core activities, it is important to understand how IEI could be more efficiently managed with respect to EMS work. The purpose for this paper is to study if and how IEI could be managed within the framework of EMS. In this study we have identified two different approaches to managing IEI. Because managing IEI is complex, it is often ignored when initiating EMSs or managed by explicitly avoid mentioning the concept. Managing IEI is seen as a matter of maturity within the organization. The paper concludes with a discussion regarding a developed definition of IEI and how management of IEI could be facilitated.