平原河网地区非点源污染风险差异化分区防控研究

土地利用优化和空间防控策略对非点源污染风险控制及水环境质量的改善具有重要意义。本文以太湖流域典型平原河网地区-上海市青浦区为研究对象,将灰色线性规划模型与最小累积阻力模型相结合,以控制非点源污染风险和增加经济效益、生态效益为目标,进行土地利用结构优化与空间分区防控研究,在空间上划设了水资源保育区、水资源重点防护区、非点源污染一般阻控区、非点源污染中等阻控区及非点源污染重点阻控区,并针对不同分区提出具有针对性的防控措施。与2012年相比,预测2020年优化防控方案下,可减少总氮、总磷的输出10.96%和41.33%。由此表明,优化土地利用结构和构建空间差异化防控机制是有效调控非点源污染风险,实现区域可持续土地利用,促进经济发展和保证生态环境安全的有效途径。     

Uncertainty characterization for emergy values

While statistical estimation of uncertainty has not typically accompanied published emergy values, as with any other quantitative model, uncertainty is embedded in these values, and lack of uncertainty characterization makes their accuracy not only opaque, it also prevents the use of emergy values in statistical tests of hypotheses. This paper first attempts to describe sources of uncertainty in unit emergy values (UEVs) and presents a framework for estimating this uncertainty with analytical and stochastic models, with model choices dependent upon on how the UEV is calculated and what kind of uncertainties are quantified. The analytical model can incorporate a broader spectrum of uncertainty types than the stochastic model, including model and scenario uncertainty, which may be significant in emergy models, but is only appropriate for the most basic of emergy calculations. Although less comprehensive in its incorporation of uncertainty, the proposed stochastic method is suitable for all types of UEVs. The distributions of unit emergy values approximate the lognormal distribution with variations depending on the types of uncertainty quantified as well as the way the UEVs are calculated. While both methods of estimating uncertainty in UEVs have their limitations in their presented stage of development, this paper provides methods for incorporating uncertainty into emergy, and demonstrates how this can be depicted and propagated so that it can be used in future emergy analyses and permit emergy to be more readily incorporated into other methods of environmental assessment, such as LCA.     

基于SD-CA-GIS的环境累积效应时空分析模型及应用

环境累积效应分析强调环境变化的时空放大作用,突出环境要素之间的时空交互作用,从而对环境分析方法的能力提出了挑战.因此,本文在对传统环境分析方法归纳、分析和总结的基础上,以地理信息系统(GIS)为基础平台,集成系统动力学(SD)和元胞自动机(CA)的优点,建立了能够分析时间累积、空间累积效应的SD-CA-GIS模型.以山西潞安矿区作为研究区域,在分析矿区社会、经济、工程和环境等因子之间时空交互作用的基础上,构建了SD-CA-GlS模型.考虑到矿区土地利用变化的特殊性,从影响矿区土地利用变化的驱动因子出发,预测和模拟了矿区2006-2030年土地利用变化的累积状况.结果发现,由于煤炭资源开采等人类干扰活动的影响,研究区在研究时段内,工矿用地、居民用地和交通用地呈现累积性增加,其它土地利用类型累积性减少.同时,由于不同阶段人类活动干扰的种类和强度变化,使得不同土地利用类型的空间扩展变化存在一定的差异.上述研究表明,该模型能够同时考虑时间累积效应和空间累积效应的动态变化,能为环境累积效应的分析和评价提供有效的帮助.     

京杭大运河苏州高新区段水质污染状况研究

以2005—2010年京杭大运河苏州高新区段水质监测数据为基础,运用内梅罗综合污染指数法以及采取方差分析对京杭大运河苏州高新区段水质的主要污染因子及其变化趋势进行了研究,并对京杭大运河水质污染状况进行了综合评价。结果表明:京杭大运河苏州高新区段主要污染物为氨氮、总磷;氨氮浓度在2006—2010年间虽有明显下降,但仍超过《地表水环境质量标准》(GB3838—2002)IV类水质要求,为劣V类水,总磷亦有明显下降,但在2008—2010年3年间其浓度略有波动,在IV类和V类水质之间浮动;2005—2008年间其水质处于污染状态,2009—2010年水质较好,为轻污染。该研究结果可为苏州高新区河流水环境治理提供科学依据。     

Conditions controlling the onset of breeding migration of the Japanese mountain stream frog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rana sakuraii</Emphasis>

I studied the conditions controlling the timing of breeding migration of the Japanese mountain stream frog Rana sakuraii, an explosive breeder, over 9 years (1992, 1993 and 1999–2005). I analysed two factors: the daily cumulative temperature (DCT) during hibernation and the triggering temperature on the day of migration onset. Frogs hibernated in shallow running water in streams in December. A total of 53,155 breeding migrating adults were captured by traps. Every year, breeding migration was induced by a rise in daily maximum water temperature to about 5°C. However, its date was limited to 1 February at the earliest, and the onset needed a DCT (from 20 January, using 3°C as the threshold for daily effective temperature) of at least about 15°C. Earlier (e.g. in mid- or late January), even if the maximum temperature rose to 5–8°C, migration did not begin. Moreover, even in early February, if the maximum temperature rose to 5°C, if it had been too cold in January and the DCT was low, migration would not begin until mid- or late February. Thus, the earliest date of readiness for migration varied from 1 February to mid-February, depending on the winter DCT. Logistic regression analyses showed that both factors, the DCT and the daily temperature, were significant. I propose that in temperate-zone amphibian explosive breeders, both the passing of an essential number of days and an essential DCT during hibernation are prerequisites for the onset of breeding migration before the daily temperature rises to the threshold.     

基于REOF方法的辽宁气候舒适度区域特征分析

基于辽宁省50个气象站1964-2008年的气象资料,采用适应东北地区的人体舒适度计算公式及分级标准,得出辽宁省近45年历年人体各舒适度级别日数,使用旋转经验正交分解法(REOF),对辽宁省气候舒适度进行区域划分,并分析了各区域气候舒适度的空间分布特征和变化趋势.结果表明:(1)根据前4个旋转倚载向量场高载荷区分布,将...     

北京地区冬夏季持续性雾-霾发生的环境气象条件对比分析

在北京地区,除冬季供暖期外盛夏也是雾-霾天气的高发季节,与我国南方不同.使用微波辐射仪、风廓线和常规气象探测资料、NCEP再分析资料以及大气成分观测结果,通过对比分析揭示了冬、夏季持续6 d的2个雾-霾过程形成和维持机制的异同.冬季雾-霾过程出现在高空西北气流、低层多短波活动的背景下,其形成和维持的主要机制是边界层内始终有逆温层、地面弱风场、底层湿度逐渐增大.逆温层昼高夜低、湿度昼小夜大是影响PM2.5质量浓度和能见度日变化的重要环境因子.在雾-霾天气持续期间地面弱风场能够维持主要源于冷空气势力弱、常不能影响到地面.此外,入夜后地面迅速辐射降温、边界层上层有暖平流以及空气过山后下沉增温在逆温层的形成中起了关键作用.然而,对于夏季持续性雾-霾天气,气溶胶区域输送、环境大气保持对流性稳定、空气的高饱和度是其发生的重要条件.在副热带高压长时间控制下对流层低层盛行偏南风,北京的PM2.5质量浓度随着偏南风风速增大升高.对流层底层系统性偏南风与北京附近的山谷风共同构成了从北京以南气溶胶累积地向北输送的机制.夏季雾-霾过程低层没有逆温,但是北京上空一直维持超过200 J·kG-1的对流抑制能量,它同样限制了污染物的垂直扩散.夏季自由对流高度也存在昼夜变化,其对PM2.5浓度和能见度的作用与逆温层高度升降相同.因此,冬、夏个例分别代表了2种不同类型的持续性雾-霾过程,导致差异的根本原因在于大气环流型.     

陕北某化工企业周围污灌区土壤-作物系统重金属积累特征及评价

对陕西北部某化工企业污灌区土壤-作物系统的重金属积累状况及空间分布进行了深入研究.结果表明,污水排放导致了周围农田土壤中Cd和Cu的聚集,其中Cd的积累量超过国家土壤环境二级标准;土壤Cu、Zn和Pb的单因子污染指数均小于1,Cd的单因子污染指数为1.21,属轻度污染,4种重金属综合污染指数为0.74,属警戒线等级.在剖面上,所有重金属元素均表现出明显的表聚现象,主要聚集在土壤表层0~10 cm范围内,在空间分布上,污水排放企业污灌区土壤和作物重金属Cu、Zn和Cd的强烈聚集区出现在企业排污口附近100 m范围内,而Pb集中在200 m范围内,并随着距企业距离的增加重金属含量呈降低趋势.在企业污水灌溉的影响下,玉米籽粒中Cu、Pb和Cd的平均含量分别为4.74、0.129和0.036 mg·kg-1,明显高于对照区,其中Pb达到5.7%的超标率.玉米籽粒中重金属单因子污染指数均小于1,大小为PbCuZnCd,综合污染指数为0.53,属安全清洁等级;4种重金属元素中,除Cd在作物中与土壤中有效态和全量之间均呈现极显著的正相关关系外,其余元素作物中和土壤中含量相关性均未达到显著水平.因此,该化工企业周围,尽管由于污灌引起重金属在土壤中的累积,但由于在农作物中的积累有限,暂时未对人体健康造成威胁,但由于交通及烟尘引起的Pb的超标应引起重视.     

The application of generalized linear mixed models to multi-level sampling for insect population monitoring

Iwao's quadratic regression or Taylor's Power Law (TPL) are commonly used to model the variance as a function of the mean for sample counts of insect populations which exhibit spatial aggregation. The modeled variance and distribution of the mean are typically used in pest management programs to decide if the population is above the action threshold in any management unit (MU) (e.g., orchard, forest compartment). For nested or multi-level sampling the usual two-stage modeling procedure first obtains the sample variance for each MU and sampling level using ANOVA and then fits a regression of variance on the mean for each level using either Iwao or TPL variance models. Here this approach is compared to the single-stage procedure of fitting a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) directly to the count data with both approaches demonstrated using 2-level sampling. GLMMs and additive GLMMs (AGLMMs) with conditional Poisson variance function as well as the extension to the negative binomial are described. Generalization to more than two sampling levels is outlined. Formulae for calculating optimal relative sample sizes (ORSS) and the operating characteristic curve for the control decision are given for each model. The ORSS are independent of the mean in the case of the AGLMMs. The application described is estimation of the variance of the mean number of leaves per shoot occupied by immature stages of a defoliator of eucalypts, the Tasmanian Eucalyptus leaf beetle, based on a sample of trees within plots from each forest compartment. Historical population monitoring data were fitted using the above approaches.     

天津市湿地资源开发的累积环境影响评价初探

历史上天津市自然湿地资源十分丰富,几十年来湿地大面积萎缩和生态功能急剧退化。天津湿地生态系统存在的主要问题是湿地生态系统如何恢复、重建和功能修复。文章在对天津市湿地生态环境建设的现状与湿地景观变化发展主要问题进行分析的基础上,探讨了湿地生态建设的目标、任务和对策,论述了湿地资源开发利用过程中累积影响评价(CIA)在政策、规划、计划及项目的各个层次都应得到充分考虑,建议明确将累积影响评价纳入到资源开发利用的体系,推动环境影响评价实践的进一步深入开展。