龙岩市PMl0污染受山谷风出现频率的影响分析

利用福建省龙岩市2006—2009年PM10的监测数据和龙岩市地区山谷风各风向的统计数据,进行了单因素方差分析、一元线性相关分析等统计分析,结果表明龙岩市区PM10浓度与N风向、NW风向、NNW风向的出现频率之间有较密切的关系。这些风向的出现会导致污染物堆积在谷底范围之内,阻碍了PM10污染物向谷外的扩散,使得处于谷底的龙岩市大气中的PMl0浓度不断增加。     

丘陵道路下实际行驶污染物排放研究

为研究丘陵道路特征对实际行驶排放（RDE）试验中污染物排放和动力学特性校验的影响,本文利用一辆轻型汽油车,在重庆地区满足国六排放法规要求的4条不同道路特征的路线上各进行了两次RDE试验.结果表明：CO₂与道路坡度呈显著线性相关,坡度每增加1%,CO₂排放因子平均增加22.4%,CO和PN则与道路坡度呈二次多项式关系,NO_x与坡度无明显相关性.从移动平均窗口层面对比考虑坡度的VSP_pos[95]（路段中正比功率升序排列的第95个百分位值）和不考虑坡度的v·a_pos[95]（速度与正加速乘积升序排列的第95个百分位值）与PN的关系,发现窗口VSP_pos[95]和v·a_pos[95]与PN的二次拟合R2平均值分别为0.93和0.72,当窗口累计正海拔增量大于600 m/100 km时,VSP_pos[95]与PN的相关性明显优于v·a_pos[95],建议在累计正海拔增量大于600 m/100 km的...     

Herbicide Transport in Goodwater Creek ExperimentalWatershed: I. Long‐Term Research on Atrazine1

Lerch, R.N., E.J. Sadler, K.A. Sudduth, C. Baffaut, and N.R. Kitchen, 2010. Herbicide Transport in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed: I. Long‐Term Research on Atrazine. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐15. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00503.x Abstract: Atrazine continues to be the herbicide of greatest concern relative to contamination of surface waters in the United States (U.S.). The objectives of this study were to analyze trends in atrazine concentration and load in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) from 1992 to 2006, and to conduct a retrospective assessment of the potential aquatic ecosystem impacts caused by atrazine contamination. Located within the Central Claypan Region of northeastern Missouri, GCEW encompasses 72.5 km² of predominantly agricultural land uses, with an average of 21% of the watershed in corn and sorghum. Flow‐weighted runoff and weekly base‐flow grab samples were collected at the outlet to GCEW and analyzed for atrazine. Cumulative frequency diagrams and linear regression analyses generally showed no significant time trends for atrazine concentration or load. Relative annual loads varied from 0.56 to 14% of the applied atrazine, with a median of 5.9%. A cumulative vulnerability index, which takes into account the interactions between herbicide application, surface runoff events, and atrazine dissipation kinetics, explained 63% of the variation in annual atrazine loads. Based on criteria established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, atrazine reached concentrations considered harmful to aquatic ecosystems in 10 of 15 years. Because of its vulnerability, atrazine registrants will be required to work with farmers in GCEW to implement practices that reduce atrazine transport.     

Identifying management opportunities to combat climate,land, and marine threats across less climate exposed coral reefs

Conserving coral reefs is critical for maintaining marine biodiversity, protecting coastlines, and supporting livelihoods in many coastal communities. Climate change threatens coral reefs globally, but researchers have identified a portfolio of coral reefs (bioclimatic units [BCUs]) that are relatively less exposed to climate impacts and strongly connected to other coral reef systems. These reefs provide a proactive opportunity to secure a long-term future for coral reefs under climate change. To help guide local management efforts, we quantified marine cumulative human impact (CHI) from climate, marine, and land pressures (2013 and from 2008 to 2013) in BCUs and across countries tasked with BCU management. Additionally, we created a management index based on common management measures and policies for each pressure source (climate, marine, and land) to identify a country's intent and commitment to effectively manage these pressures. Twenty-two countries (79%) had increases in CHI from 2008 to 2013. Climate change pressures had the highest proportional contribution to CHI across all reefs and in all but one country (Singapore), but 18 BCUs (35%) and nine countries containing BCUs (32%) had relatively high land and marine impacts. There was a significant positive relationship between climate impact and the climate management index across countries (R² = 0.43, p = 0.02), potentially signifying that countries with greater climate impacts are more committed to managing them. However, this trend was driven by climate management intent in Fiji and Bangladesh. Our results can be used to guide future fine-scale analyses, national policies, and local management decisions, and our management indices reveal areas where management components can be improved. Cost-effectively managing local pressures (e.g., fishing and nutrients) in BCUs is essential for building a climate-ready future that benefits coral reefs and people.     

日月引潮力的变化与台湾地震

分析了中国台湾省自1900年以来,Ms≥7．0的地震发生时刻前后的日月引潮变化,研究了日月引潮力的变化率与这些地震的关系。结果表明,日月引潮力的变化与这些地震的发生时有密切的关系,其对台湾省大地震的发生可能有一定的触发作用。     

基于概率分析的应急交通救援需求预测模型

在开展应急救援需求特征分析的基础上,将需求分布问题归为管控条件下的运输优化问题,借鉴运筹学思想,建立基于运输问题的应急救援需求分布模型。其次,引入应急期限要求、通行能力约束、路径阻抗动态时变等影响因素,对运输问题模型进行改进。为便于求解,进一步将模型转化为基于概率分析的救援需求分阶段优化模型,该模型将车辆出行时间视为服从正态分布的随机变量,利用出行时间方差的调整反映不同阶段路径阻抗的变化,能够在满足救援响应时间的前提下,解得运输成本最小的需求矩阵。案例研究证明这个模型能够满足应急期限要求并刻画路径阻抗的动态时变特征,达到了预期效果。     

Reality and risk of contact-type head injuries related to bicycle-mounted child seats

Objective

The authors have treated numerous children who have been injured by falling from bicycle-mounted child seats. Despite the greatly increased use of such seats, the understanding of their risk and the importance of helmet use remains alarmingly poor. The objective of this study was to confirm the risk of bicycle-mounted child seats and to evaluate the efficacy of helmets, seat belts, and back seat height in terms of preventing or mitigating contact-type head impacts that occur in falls from bicycle-mounted child seats.

Materials and methods

Biometrical dummy tests were performed to examine contact-type head injuries in falls from stationary bicycles. A bicycle with an anthropometric test dummy placed in a bicycle-mounted child seat was tipped over. Each test was repeated three times and three-dimensional acceleration was measured using accelerometer. Head Injury Criteria (HIC) were calculated and the respective influences of a helmet, a seat belt, and increased height of the back of the seat on such impacts were evaluated.

Results

Only helmets unequivocally lowered maximal acceleration and/or HIC values with statistical significance. The seat belt lowered HIC values as long as it was used with the high-back seat. Only when the dummy wore a helmet sitting in a high-back seat did the HIC show less than the threshold of 570 for three-year-old children. The HIC showed the lowest score of 161.5 when the dummy wore both a helmet and a seat belt sitting in a high-back seat.

Conclusions

Riders in bicycle-mounted child seats definitely have higher risks of contact-type head injuries. In transporting a child on a bicycle-mounted child seat, parents must use both a child-bicycle helmet and a high-back child seat at least; a seat belt is highly recommended as long as it is used with the other safety devices.

Impact on Industry

The bicycle-mounted child seat should have a high enough back and an appropriate seat belt to protect the head of the child from a contact-type injury.     

沙尘天气发生频率对大气能见度方差的影响研究:以北京及其沙尘过往路径典型站点为例

利用1971～2000年北京及其沙尘过往路径典型站点日能见度和各种沙尘天气发生日资料,分析了沙尘天气发生频率与能见度方差的关系.发现当沙尘天气频率减少(增加)1次时,能见度方差就偏强(偏弱)1个标准差.沙尘天气发生频率对日能见度变率的影响主要是通过风速的高频变率实现的,当风速变率偏强(偏弱)1个标准差时,沙尘天气发生频率增强(减弱)约30%,近地面风场的高频变率影响了沙尘天气的产生,从而影响日能见度方差的波动.异常低能见度事件(日能见度距平<-2σ,σ为各站各日能见度距平的标准差)频次与能见度方差之间存在显著的正相关性.风速距平频次增加,使得沙尘天气发生频次增加,从而导致低能见度事件频次上升;反之,异常低能见度事件下降.浮尘、沙尘暴和扬沙与低能见度事件的相关程度是不同的.     

海湾资源开发的累积生态效应研究

通过相关性分析,筛选了地形地貌环境、水动力环境、水质和沉积质量环境、生物生态环境、景观环境等方面的累积效应以及对灾害的潜在诱发效应共六大类作为海湾资源开发累积生态效应的指示因子;然后以厦门海湾为例对各指示因子的累积效应深入分析;最后应用灰色评估模型对海湾常见资源开发类型的累积生态影响效应进行赋值评估。结果表明,六大类指示因子在时间和空间尺度上的累积效应与海湾资源的开发利用强度呈正相关关系;海湾资源开发利用的累积生态效应,在一定程度上改变了海湾资源与环境体系的结构,生物多样性降低,景观破碎,影响了自然海湾生态系统的生产力和生态服务功能,最终将影响沿海可持续发展能力。建议开发利用强度较大的海湾,借鉴生态城市的规划建设理念,布局合理的生态源、生态嵌块、生态廊道,防止资源开发利用不断加大而导致海域生态沙漠的出现。     

基于鱼类和底栖动物生物完整性指数的济南市水体健康评价

F-IBI（fish index of biological integrity,鱼类生物完整性指数）和B-IBI（benthic-macroinvertebrate index of biological integrity,底栖动物生物完整性指数）在大尺度流域范围内应用较广,但在城市水体中的应用研究较少.为了解F-IBI和B-IBI在城市水体中的适用性,分别于2014年和2015年的5月、8月和10月分6次对济南市水体进行野外采样调查,共设46个采样点（其中,12个采样点位于水库,34个采样点位于河流）,采集底栖动物和鱼类,并测定了23个水环境因子.依据生物物种丰富度、种类个体数量比例、敏感性和耐受性、营养结构、繁殖共位群、物种多样性等功能属性,共计算底栖动物生物参数27个、鱼类生物参数22个.采用箱体图法和累计系数法,分别对河流型水体和水库型水体的生物参数进行筛选.根据百分位数法,共划分健康、较好、一般、较差、极差5个等级.通过Pearson相关性检验法判定鱼类和底栖动物评价结果的一致性.结果表明:①底栖动物总分类单元数、BMWP指数、鱼类物种数、鱼类个体数为河流型水体和水库型水体共同核心参数.②鱼类评价结果显示,健康样点6个、较好样点7个、一般样点9个、较差样点12个、极差样点12个,底栖动物依次分别为6、6、8、17、9个.③F-IBI和B-IBI相关系数为0.56,相关性较为显著.研究显示,济南市南部黄河区、小清河区东部生物完整性较高,城区东部及北部徒骇马颊河区生物完整性较差,鱼类和底栖动物评价结果具有较强的一致性.