湖泊水质时空变化特征识别的贝叶斯方差分析方法

精细识别湖泊水质的时空变化特征是确定流域污染调控措施的基础.贝叶斯方差分析具有灵活的模型结构,可直接表征变量的时空动态特征.本文据此提出了基于该方法的湖泊水质时空变化特征识别的方法框架,研究了异龙湖稳态转换条件下富营养化指标的变化特征和滇池外海特征污染物达标率的时空变化2个案例,验证了该方法在总体服从正态分布和二项分布时的适用性.针对参数可交换性假设被忽视的问题,本文提出了一种基于模型选择准则的判定方法,并将其应用于滇池案例中.结果表明:(1)相对于清水稳态,异龙湖在浊水稳态时3种富营养化指标浓度更高,且年际方差所占总方差比例减小;(2)滇池外海总氮浓度超标率由2007—2013年间的40%左右降到2014—2016年间的10%左右,且波动性降低.随着监测数据的积累和监测时空精度的增加,贝叶斯方差分析在湖泊水质时空变化特征识别中具有广阔的应用前景.     

水环境模拟参数随机场空间最优估计精度分析与特异值研究

本文结合克里格方差的特点,对水环境模拟参数随机场空间最优估计的精度进行了分析,结果显示估计精度受变差函数、采样点的空间配置结构等因素的影响,并结合实例探讨了影响水环境模拟参数克里格估计精度的特异值的识别与处理方法。     

基于腐蚀损伤表征因子的疲劳寿命衰减影响研究

应用MIT（Mean Impact Value）方法对LY12CZ铝合金试件疲劳寿命产生影响的腐蚀损伤表征因子进行筛选,得到了对疲劳寿命衰减影响较大的5个腐蚀损伤表征因子。定义了腐蚀疲劳寿命累积衰减函数与疲劳寿命衰减速率函数,建立了寿命累积衰减模型,验证了该模型的准确性,并以腐蚀损伤表征因子和腐蚀累积衰减函数为数据样本,用BP神经网络、自适应滤波的LMS算法分别预测了不同年限下的疲劳寿命。与实验测得的疲劳寿命数据对比后得出,BP神经网络、LMS方法计算产生的误差在工程上可以接受。     

Elevated atmospheric CO2 and drought effects on leaf gas exchange properties of barley

Atmospheric CO₂ concentration (C_a) is rising, predicted to cause global warming, and alter precipitation patterns. During 1994, spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Alexis) was grown in a strip-split-plot experimental design to determine the effects that the main plot C_a treatments [A: Ambient at 370 μmol (CO₂) mol⁻¹; E: Enriched with free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) at ∼550 μmol (CO₂) mol⁻¹] had on several gas exchange properties of fully expanded sunlit primary leaves. The interacting strip-split-plot irrigation treatments were Dry or Wet [50% (D) or 100% (W) replacement of potential evapotranspiration] at ample nitrogen (261 kg N ha⁻¹) and phosphorous (29 kg P ha⁻¹) fertility. Elevated C_a facilitated drought avoidance by reducing stomatal conductance (g_s) by 34% that conserved water and enabled stomata to remain open for a longer period into a drought. This resulted in a 28% reduction in drought-induced midafternoon depression in net assimilation rate (A). Elevated C_a increased A by 37% under Dry and 23% under Wet. Any reduction in A under Wet conditions occurred because of nonstomatal limitations, whereas under Dry it occurred because of stomatal limitations. Elevated C_a increased the diurnal integral of A (A′) that resulted in an increase in the seasonal-long integral of A′ (A″) for barley leaves by 12% (P = 0.14) under both Dry and Wet - 650, 730, 905 and 1020 ± 65 g (C) m⁻² y⁻¹ for AD, ED, AW and EW treatments, respectively. Elevated C_a increased season-long average dry weight (DW_S; crown, shoots) by 14% (P = 0.02), whereas deficit irrigation reduced DW_S by 7% (P = 0.06), although these values may have been affected by a short but severe pea aphid [Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris)] infestation. Hence, an elevated-C_a-based improvement in gas exchange properties enhanced growth of a barley crop.     

基于MCR模型的大别山核心区生态安全格局异质性及优化

以大别山核心区精准扶贫对象岳西县为研究单元,选择10个生态阻力因子建立生态安全评价指标体系,利用ArcGIS构建生态阻力面,应用空间数据探索分析方法（Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis,ESDA）、最小累积阻力模型（Minimum Cumulative Resistance,MCR）和重力模型对生态安全进行诊断和潜在生态廊道识别提取。研究表明：（1）岳西县生态安全较高及高等级区域占县域总面积37.79%,而较低及低等级区域占51.89%,整体呈现北低南高的空间特征,生态安全水平总体偏低。（2）ESDA分析显示,生态安全空间分布全局Moran's I指数为0.6374,LISA图显示岳西县生态安全等级主要以高高（HH）、低低（LL）两种聚集类型为主,在空间上呈明显的片状集聚分布特征。在此基础上,选择生境良好的自然保护区及大型风景区斑块为生态源,生成累积耗费阻力面,基于MCR最小累积阻力模型构建生态源之间的最小累积耗费路径,提取潜在生态廊道90条,生态节点103个,利用重力模型识别出21条重要潜在生态廊道,其中,一级和二级潜在生态廊道分别为13条和8条。（3）结合岳西县旅游产业空间发展规划,提出了“一环三带”生态网络框架空间布局模式及优化对策,该模式可作为岳西县生态经济产业发展格局的有效补充。     

基于形态空间格局分析方法和最小累积阻力模型的北京市平原区造林工程生态格局分析

为了科学评估北京市平原区造林工程的生态影响，利用高分卫星数据获取2018—2020年北京市平原区造林面积、分布及变化信息，分析了造林工程的空间格局特征，并采用形态空间格局分析(MSPA)方法及最小累积阻力(MCR)模型，构建了北京市平原区生态网络，通过情景模拟分析造林工程对生态源地、生态廊道产生的影响。结果显示，2018—2020年北京市平原区造林工程主要沿西北东南方向实施，实现了对原有林地资源分布不均衡问题的解决。热点建设区域为北部的延庆及东南部的通州、大兴，呈现由城市边界逐步向市中心蔓延的发展趋势。在不考虑其他因素对土地利用的影响的前提下，造林工程的实施使平原区林地面积增长了9.8%。通过情景模拟发现，造林工程的实施使生态网络向连通、完整、均衡方向发展。其中，生态源地面积增长了131.0 km²,主要生态源地连通性提升了41.1%,生态廊道的分布由主要分布在西北部山区向西北、东南两个方向均有密集分布转变。综上，造林工程的生态环境效应显著，造林工程的实施对生态环境质量改善具有重要意义。     

Global rarity of intact coastal regions

Management of the land–sea interface is essential for global conservation and sustainability objectives because coastal regions maintain natural processes that support biodiversity and the livelihood of billions of people. However, assessments of coastal regions have focused strictly on either the terrestrial or marine realm. Consequently, understanding of the overall state of Earth's coastal regions is poor. We integrated the terrestrial human footprint and marine cumulative human impact maps in a global assessment of the anthropogenic pressures affecting coastal regions. Of coastal regions globally, 15.5% had low anthropogenic pressure, mostly in Canada, Russia, and Greenland. Conversely, 47.9% of coastal regions were heavily affected by humanity, and in most countries (84.1%) >50% of their coastal regions were degraded. Nearly half (43.3%) of protected areas across coastal regions were exposed to high human pressures. To meet global sustainability objectives, all nations must undertake greater actions to preserve and restore the coastal regions within their borders.