煤层底板采动导水破坏深度计算的神经网络方法

在综合分析影响煤层底板采动导水破坏深度因素的基础上 ,应用人工神经网络方法 ,建立了底板破坏深度的计算模型。该模型利用现场观测资料作为学习训练样本和测试样本 ,对模型的测算结果、理论计算值和实测值进行了对比分析。结果表明 :用神经网络方法计算底板破坏深度考虑的因素更加全面 ,结果更接近于实际。笔者研究的计算模型和测算方法 ,为承压水上安全采煤决策提供了科学依据。     

Epilithic Diatoms in an Alpine Lake (Traunsee,Austria) Affected by Soda and Salt Mining Industries

Traunsee, a 191 m deep Alpine lake in Austria, is affected by industrial tailings from the soda and salt mining industries since 1883. In 1998 littoral water chloride concentrations ranged between 40 and 85 mg L^-1 and the highest conductivity was 560 S cm^-1, which is almost double as high as the values reported from the two nearby reference lakes. Chloride concentrations increased towards the location of the industrial salt and soda emission into the lake. Analogously to the chloride gradient, the epilithic littoral diatom flora changes towards the waste inlet. Shifts in the species percentages towards the emission source, a high percentage of taxa with large conductivity tolerances, the presence of a small Achnanthes minutissima Kützing morphotype, and occurrences of taxa focused at habitats of higher electrolyte content, indicate subtle impacts on the epilithic diatom flora. An analysis of the seasonal succession of the epilithic diatoms at the waste inlet compared to a lake intern reference site, reveals that only during the late summer period in 1998 the diatom assemblage at the waste inlet became significantly different, indicating seasonally restricted effects of the industrial emissions.     

我国地震应急指挥技术体系初探

地震应急指挥技术系统是防震减灾建设的核心内容。”十五”期间,将建设中国地震应急指挥技术系统。目前我国在这方面的研究和建设尚处于初级阶段,其体系结构,关键构成、设计和实现还有许多问题值得进一步研究和探讨。根据所从事的项目建设过程,对地震应急指挥技术系统的体系结构进行了阐述,介绍了在此基础上开展的首都圈地震应急指挥系统建设工作,并就今后的发展进行了讨论。     

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.     

青藏铁路列车运行控制系统的安全性分析

分析了青藏铁路中多种不利因素对轨道电路参数的影响 ;提出了在青藏铁路不宜采用现行基于轨道电路的列车运行控制系统 ,而应选择基于通信的列车运行控制系统的理由 ;给出了系统的基本结构及提高系统可靠性的措施 ;与此同时 ,就人们关心的无线传输列车控制数据的可靠性和安全性难题 ,通过建立马尔可夫模型的方法进行了分析     

21世纪中国西部矿产资源开发的战略思考

作为全国资源的富集区,西部矿业开发要在21世纪地区经济发展中作出应有的贡献,不仅需要一个长期的开发过程,而且更需要一个明智而有效的发展战略,从西部地区资源、环境、区位条件及长期实践出发,认真把握未来市场变化、积极推动精品为先发展,努力调整地区产品结构和合理组织空间生产应成为21世纪西部矿产资源开发战略的四项基本内容,上述战略的实施不仅有束于资源的保障、中央政府的认呆和资金与技术的支持,而且有赖于整个社会环保意识的加强。     

Information Management System for Site Remediation Efforts

/ Environmental regulatory agencies are responsible for protecting human health and the environment in their constituencies. Their responsibilities include the identification, evaluation, and cleanup of contaminated sites. Leaking underground storage tanks (USTs) constitute a major source of subsurface and groundwater contamination. A significant portion of a regulatory body's efforts may be directed toward the management of UST-contaminated sites. In order to manage remedial sites effectively, vast quantities of information must be maintained, including analytical dataon chemical contaminants, remedial design features, and performance details. Currently, most regulatory agencies maintain such information manually. This makes it difficult to manage the data effectively. Some agencies have introduced automated record-keeping systems. However, the ad hoc approach in these endeavors makes it difficult to efficiently analyze, disseminate, and utilize the data. This paper identifies the information requirements for UST-contaminated site management at the Waste Cleanup Section of the Department of Environmental Resources Management in Dade County, Florida. It presents a viable design for an information management system to meet these requirements. The proposed solution is based on a back-end relational database management system with relevant tools for sophisticated data analysis and data mining. The database is designed with all tables in the third normal form to ensure data integrity, flexible access, and efficient query processing. In addition to all standard reports required by the agency, the system provides answers to ad hoc queries that are typically difficult to answer under the existing system. The database also serves as a repository of information for a decision support system to aid engineering design and risk analysis. The system may be integrated with a geographic information system for effective presentation and dissemination of spatial data.     

Locational Probability for a Dammed, Urbanizing Stream: Salt River, Arizona, USA

/ Data from historical aerial photographs analyzed with a GIS show that river channel change on the Salt River in the Phoenix metropolitan area of central Arizona has been driven by large-scale regional flood events and local human activities. Mapping of functional surfaces such as low-flow channels, high-flow channels, islands, bars attached to channel banks, and engineered surfaces shows that during the period from 1935 to 1997, the relative areal coverage of these surfaces has changed. Flood events have caused general changes in sinuosity of the low-flow channel, but islands have remained remarkably consistent in location and size, while channel-side bars have waxed and waned. The most important determinant of local channel form and process is sand and gravel mining, which in some reaches occupies more than 70% of the active channel area. The general location of mining is closely related to the location of the moving urban fringe, which serves as a market for sand and gravel during construction. Quantitative spatial analysis of imagery supplemented by field mapping shows that for each location within the general channel area, it is possible to specify a probability of encountering a low-flow channel or other fluvial features. Maps showing the distribution of these probabilities of occurrence reveal the most probable location and configuration of the channel as it occurred in the past. Some reaches have the low-flow channel located persistently within a limited area as a result of bedrock or sinuosity controls, but other reaches dominated by flow separation or shallow gradient have almost no persistence in channel location from one flood to another.     

交通事故再现技术研究现状与发展趋势

道路交通事故再现不仅是交通事故责任鉴定和原因分析的重要方法,也是交通事故防治的重要内容。在详细介绍国内外事故再现计算机仿真技术的基础上,分析目前事故再现系统开发中事故现场数据采集技术、碰撞前后速度估算的技术、碰撞过程进行模拟的虚拟现实技术的研究现状与存在的问题,提出进一步优化的方向,进而达到完善交通事故模拟再现的目的。最后指出我国交通事故再现技术进一步研究的内容和发展趋势。     

发电设备可靠性研究现状与发展

通过对国内外发电设备可靠性研究的分析,提出了我国发电设备可靠性研究大体经历了可靠性指标统计分析、传统可靠性模型分析以及电力市场下可靠性分析3个阶段。在比较各阶段研究特点的基础上,指出了建立发电设备可靠性成本与可靠性效益之间的平衡,设定反映二者关系的新的可靠性指标是电力市场下发电设备可靠性研究的新特点。笔者认为,所提出了数据挖掘技术,是发电设备可靠性管理实现实时化、智能化与预测化的一种有效方法。