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951.
Scientists use deterministic models to study and forecast the behavior of complex environmental processes, with increasing emphasis on incorporating data to inform model input parameters and accounting for parameter uncertainty. We work with a deterministic, individual‐based model (IBM) of tree growth and mortality, which is under development to explore forest dynamics. Some values of IBM input parameters cause premature virtual tree mortality relative to the actual mortality status of an observed tree. This discordance in mortality causes dimension changes in the state of a stochastic implementation of IBM outputs and leads us to address trans‐dimensional moves among states with a novel formulation of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). In particular, we present an RJMCMC algorithm that uses a continuously supported, multidimensional index—the IBM input parameter—instead of a discrete index typical of model determination applications. We use both synthetic data and data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis database representing two tree species. We compare results for each dataset and species between our reversible jump (RJ) specification and an alternative, non‐RJ specification. The RJ formulation compares favorably to the non‐RJ formulation with regard to achieving convergence and yielding biologically realistic IBM input parameter estimates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
952.
江西省2001-2005年森林植被碳储量及 区域分布特征 总被引：10，自引：4，他引：10
利用\"十五\"期间(2001-2005年)江西省森林资源二类清查资料,根据优势树种生物量扩展方程,估算江西省森林植被的碳储量和碳密度,并分析其地理分布特征。江西省森林植被的总碳储量为263.87 Tg C(1 Tg C=106 t),其中林分碳储量为214.70 Tg C。在11个地市中,赣州市的森林植被碳储量最大,为70.11 Tg C,其次是吉安市、上饶市和宜春市。江西省森林植被的平均碳密度为26.27 t/hm2,林分平均碳密度为27.20 t/hm2,各地市森林植被的平均碳密度景德镇市最大,为31.65 t/hm2,其次为宜春市、吉安市和鹰潭市。各森林类型中,杉木(Cunninghamia lanceolata)林的碳储量最大,为73.77 Tg C,占江西省林分碳储量的34.36％;硬阔林的碳密度大于其他类型森林,为42.64 t/hm2,是江西省森林植被平均碳密度的1.5倍多。幼、中龄林的碳储量占全省林分碳储量的81.95％,碳密度随着龄级的增长而增加。 相似文献
953.
面向数据缺失情况下水淹天然气管道泄漏风险量化分析的需求,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络(BN)和模糊集理论(FST)的概率风险分析方法。首先采用故障树分析(FTA)法分析水淹天然气管道泄漏失效致因,并映射得到相应的BN模型;然后针对基本事件失效概率数据缺失的情况,用专家知识引出概率,替代缺失的统计失效概率;为处理概率引出过程中专家知识的模糊性和主观性导致的不确定性,结合FST与多专家层次分析引出模糊概率,将其作为实际先验概率输入BN模型,进行量化分析。以某复线水淹天然气管道为例,应用所提方法分析其泄漏风险,结果表明:用该方法能够在数据缺失情况下表征并量化泄漏风险,同时BN的正向预测和概率更新能力可用来评估动态风险、识别关键失效因素。 相似文献
954.
A wildland fire is a serious threat for forest ecosystems in Southern Europe affecting severely and irreversibly regions of significant ecological value as well as human communities. To support decision makers during large-scale forest fire incidents, a multidisciplinary system has been developed that provides rational and quantitative information based on the site-specific circumstances and the possible consequences. The systems architecture consists of several distinct supplementary modules of near real-time satellite monitoring and fire forecast using an integrated framework of satellite Remote Sensing, GIS, and RDBMS technologies equipped with interactive communication capabilities. The system may handle multiple fire ignitions and support decisions regarding dispatching of utilities, equipment, and personnel that would appropriately attack the fire front. The operational system was developed for the region of Penteli Mountain in Attika, Greece, one of the mountain areas in the country most hit by fires. Starting from a real fire incident in August 2000, a scenario is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. 相似文献
955.
浅论环境监测数据的综合分析方法 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
叶萍 《中国环境管理干部学院学报》2009,19(1):99-101
准确、可靠、可比的环境监测数据是环境科学研究工作的基础,是环境管理的依据。在第一时间判断出监测分析数据是否合理的基础上,再对监测分析的数据作进一步的分析评价,是整个数据综合分析的基础,为进一步综合分析数据提供了依据。本文通过分析几种常用的监测数据的分析方法,说明对监测数据进行综合分析是至关重要的。 相似文献
956.
957.
Ari M. Michelsen Sonya Jones Eric Evenson David Blodgett 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2016,52(4):836-844
Many reports have recognized the need for a national water census for the United States and have called upon the U.S. Geological Survey to undertake this challenge. For example, the National Science and Technology Council stated: “The United States has a strong need for an ongoing census of water that describes the status of our Nation's water resource at any point in time and identifies trends over time.” Responding to the need for this information, the U.S. Congress established the SECURE Water Act. The directives are to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States; determine the quantity of water available for beneficial uses; identify long‐term trends in water availability; assist in determination of the quality of the water resources; and develop the basis for an improved ability to forecast the availability of water for future economic, energy production, and environmental uses. This article provides summary and new information on the process and progress on work to estimate water budget components nationwide, involvement of stakeholder interests, efforts to examine water‐use characteristics throughout the Nation, studies of water availability in geographically focused areas and the initiation of methods to provide open access to existing and new water resources information contributing to Open Water Data Initiative (OWDI) efforts and objectives. 相似文献
958.
Marcela Rojas Felipe Quintero Witold F. Krajewski 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2020,56(4):568-585
This paper explores the performance of the analysis‐and‐assimilation configuration of the National Water Model (NWM) v1.0 in Iowa. The NWM assimilates streamflow observations from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), which increases the performance but also limits the available data for model evaluation. In this study, Iowa Flood Center Bridge Sensors (IFCBS) data provided an independent nonassimilated dataset for evaluation analyses. The authors compared NWM outputs for the period between May 2016 and April 2017, with two datasets: USGS streamflow and velocity observations; Stage and streamflow data from IFCBS. The distribution of Spearman rank correlation (rs), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E), and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) provided quantification of model performance. We found the performance was linked with the spatial scale of the basins. Analysis at USGS gauges showed the strongest performance in large (>10,000 km2) basins (rs = 0.9, E = 0.9, KGE = 0.8), with some decrease at small (<1,000 km2) basins (rs = 0.6, E = ?0.25, KGE = ?0.2). Analysis with independent IFCBS observations was used to report performance at large basins (rs = 0.6, KGE = 0.1) and small basins (rs = 0.2, KGE = ?0.4). Data assimilation improves simulations at downstream basins. We found differences in the characterization of the model and observed data flow velocity distributions. The authors recommend checking the connection of USGS gauges and NHDPlus reaches for selected locations where performance is weak. 相似文献
959.
Richard Lawford Sushel Unninayar George J. Huffman Wolfgang Grabs Angélica Gutiérrez Toshio Koike 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(5):877-884
Given the wide diversity of data services provided to national water management agencies, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) in collaboration with the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) developed the approach described in the report, Implementing the GEOSS Water Strategy—From Observations to Decisions to develop more coherent and equitable data services for water management through the use of Earth observations. Among other water resource issues, it recognized the need to enhance data-enriched water management services to support decision making related to drought monitoring, flood warning, tracking and improving sustainable development and monitoring and ameliorating the impacts of climate change. Needs associated with the Strategy's four themes: improved data acquisition for essential water variables, research and product development, interoperability and coordination, and capacity development and decision support, are reviewed. Responses to the recommendations have been undertaken by GEO, led by its Global Water Sustainability (GEOGloWS) initiative which includes NASA contributions, CEOS, and the Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN-H). Progress on the themes is reviewed and benefits of these developments for international and US water management are identified. The commentary concludes with a summary of what has been achieved, what remains to be done, and the priority focus areas for implementation in the final year of the Strategy. 相似文献
960.
Shelby L. Ziegler;Rachel O. Brooks;Lyall F. Bellquist;Jennifer E. Caselle;Steven G. Morgan;Timothy J. Mulligan;Benjamin I. Ruttenberg;Brice X. Semmens;Richard M. Starr;Joe Tyburczy;Dean E. Wendt;Andre Buchheister;Jose R. Marin Jarrin;Christina Pasparakis;Salvador J. Jorgensen;Jennifer A. Chiu;Jordan Colby;Connor L. Coscino;Leon Davis;Francine de Castro;Jack T. Elstner;Christopher Honeyman;Erica T. Jarvis Mason;Erin M. Johnston;Sadie L. Small;Jay Staton;Grant T. Waltz;Bonnie Basnett;Erin V. Satterthwaite;Helen Killeen;Connor D. Dibble;Scott L. Hamilton; 《Conservation Letters》2024,17(2):e13000
A variety of criteria may influence the efficacy of networks of marine protected areas (MPA) designed to enhance biodiversity conservation and provide fisheries benefits. Meta-analyses have evaluated the influence of MPA attributes on abundance, biomass, and size structure of harvested species, reporting that MPA size, age, depth, and connectivity influence the strength of MPA responses. However, few empirical MPA evaluation studies have used consistent sampling methodology across multiple MPAs and years. Our collaborative fisheries research program systematically sampled 12 no-take or highly protective limited-take MPAs and paired fished reference areas across a network spanning 1100 km of coastline to evaluate the factors driving MPA efficacy across a large geographic region. We found that increased size and age consistently contributed to increased fish catch, biomass, and positive species responses inside MPAs, while accounting for factors such as latitude, primary productivity, and distance to the nearest MPA. Our study provides a model framework to collaboratively engage diverse stakeholders in fisheries research and provide high-quality data to assess the success of conservation strategies. 相似文献