一种人因可靠性分析(HRA)方法

从控制论角度说明人因可靠性分析方法，在分析现有两代人因可靠性分析方法不足的基础上，结合控制论，提出了一种新的人因可靠性分析方法的构想。     

建筑物火灾疏散中人的失误研究

火灾是人类所面临的最为严重的灾害之一。通过建筑物火灾现场勘察表明 ,造成火灾中人员伤害的重要原因之一是火灾现场疏散人员行为的失误。而火灾现场疏散人员行为的失误是一个极为复杂的问题 ,它既与影响疏散中人的行为因素有关 ,又与火灾疏散中人的认知模式有关。因此 ,笔者基于行为学的基本原理和建筑物火灾的特点 ,定义了建筑物火灾中人失误的内涵 ,对建筑物火灾中疏散人员失误的机理和分类进行了分析 ,建立了相应的模型 ,讨论了减少建筑物火灾中疏散人员失误的措施 ,并着重讨论了火灾疏散教育和培训的内容和形式。     

人的可靠性分析:历史、需求和进展

人的可靠性分析 (HRA)是人机工程、安全科学极为关注的问题。近年来 ,该领域的理论研究和应用技术发展很快 ,尤其将认知科学与人的失误的研究相结合 ,从失误模型到计算方法都更加与现实情景相吻合。笔者介绍了HRA的发展历史和相关的第一代HRA计算方法及其特点 ,并且就HRA在我国核电领域中的应用状况和前景进行了探讨 ,重点介绍了国际原子能机构赞助的中国核电厂操纵员可靠性研究项目 ,其成果对于进一步完善安全管理和提高我国核电厂人员可靠性提供了科学的依据和借鉴经验。     

SOURCES OF VARIABILITY IN PHOSPHORUS AND CHLOROPHYLL AND THEIR EFFECTS ON USE OF LAKE SURVEY DATA1

Summer lake survey measurements of total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (CHLa) from 188 reserviors and natural lakes in the midwest were analyzed to determine the magnitude of major sources of variability. Median variance among replicate samples collected at the same location and time was about 7-8 percent of the mean for both TP and CHLa. Median observed temporal variability within summers was 27 percent of the mean for TP and 45 percent of the mean for CHLa. Median values of year-to-year variance in average TP and CHLa were 22 percent and 31 percent of the mean, respectively. A range of approximately two orders of magnitude was observed among individual estimates of variance in each of these categories. The magnitude of observed temporal variability was affected only slightly by variance among replicate samples on individual days and was weakly correlated with the length of time during which samples were collected from individual lakes. Observed temporal variation was similar between reservoirs and natural lakes when variances were calculated with logtransformed data. The magnitude of temporal and year-to-year variance can severely limit the power of statistical comparisons of TP and CHLa means, but has less effect on establishing relative rankings of lake means, Sources and relative magnitude of variability are important in the use of TP and CHLa data in regression models and in the planning of lake surveys and subsequent data analysis.     

Pesticide and Transformation Product Detections and Age‐Dating Relations from Till and Sand Deposits1

Abstract:  Pesticide and transformation product concentrations and frequencies in ground water from areas of similar crop and pesticide applications may vary substantially with differing lithologies. Pesticide analysis data for atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, acetochlor, and cyanazine and their pesticide transformation products were collected at 69 monitoring wells in Illinois and northern Indiana to document occurrence of pesticides and their transformation products in two agricultural areas of differing lithologies, till, and sand. The till is primarily tile drained and has preferential fractured flow, whereas the sand primarily has surface water drainage and primary porosity flow. Transformation products represent most of the agricultural pesticides in ground water regardless of aquifer material – till or sand. Transformation products were detected more frequently than parent pesticides in both the till and sand, with metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid being most frequently detected. Estimated ground‐water recharge dates for the sand were based on chlorofluorocarbon analyses. These age‐dating data indicate that ground water recharged prior to 1990 is more likely to have a detection of a pesticide or pesticide transformation product. Detections were twice as frequent in ground water recharged prior to 1990 (82%) than in ground water recharged on or after 1990 (33%). The highest concentrations of atrazine, alachlor, metolachlor, and their transformation products, also were detected in samples from ground water recharged prior to 1990. These age/pesticide detection relations are opposite of what would normally be expected, and may be the result of preferential flow and/or ground‐water mixing between aquifers and aquitards as evident by the detection of acetochlor transformation products in samples with estimated ground‐water ages predating initial pesticide application.     

EVALUATION OF NEXRAD STAGE III PRECIPITATION DATA OVER A SEMIARID REGION1

This study examines NEXRAD Stage III product (hourly, cell size 4 km by 4 km) for its ability in estimating precipitation in central New Mexico, a semiarid area. A comparison between Stage III and a network of gauge precipitation estimates during 1995 to 2001 indicates that Stage III (1) overestimates the hourly conditional mean (CM) precipitation by 33 percent in the monsoon season and 55 percent in the nonmonsoon season; (2) overestimates the hourly CM precipitation for concurrent radar‐gauge pairs (nonzero value) by 13 percent in the monsoon season and 6 percent in the nonmonsoon season; (3) overestimates the seasonal precipitation accumulation by 11 to 88 percent in monsoon season and underestimates by 18 to 89 percent in the nonmonsoon season; and (4) either overestimates annual precipitation accumulation up to 28.2 percent or underestimates it up to 11.9 percent. A truncation of 57 to 72 percent of the total rainfall hours is observed in the Stage III data in the nonmonsoon season, which may be the main cause for both the underestimation of the radar rainfall accumulation and the lower conditional probability of radar rainfall detection in the nonmonsoon season. The study results indicate that the truncation caused loss of small rainfall amounts (events) is not effectively corrected by the real‐time rain gauge calibration that can adjust the rainfall rates but cannot recover the truncated small rainfall events. However, the truncation error in the monsoon season may be suppressed due to the larger rainfall rate and/or combined effect of overestimates by bright band and hail contaminations, virga, advection, etc. In general, improvement in NEXRAD performance since the monsoon season in 1998 is observed, which is consistent with the systematic improvement in the NEXRAD network.     

综放工作面微气候对工人操作失误影响研究

阐述综放工作面微气候的特点,即综采工作面的温度、湿度、煤尘等普遍偏高的情况。指出微气候的各个指标对于工人操作可靠性的影响;利用人因学原理分析了综放工作面温度、湿度、风速和煤尘对于工作操作可靠性影响的机理;强调要将综放工作面微气候中的温度、湿度、煤尘控制在一个合理的范围内;针对不同的因素提出有效的应对措施。研究取得的成果为改善井下综采工作面微气候,提高工人操作可靠性提出了理论依据。     

几种降低有机样品分析系统误差的方法

有机痕量分析的样品处理包括从样品采集直到最终分离测定的全过程,在有机痕量分析中,必须严格防止所用器皿、化学试剂、溶剂等污染,减少系统误差。     

湘北华容地区小墨山花岗岩体SHRIMPU—Pb年龄及地球化学特征

小墨山岩体侵位于中元古代冷家溪群中,由两期侵入体组成,早期为粗中粒—中粒斑状黑云母二长花岗岩;末期为细粒黑(二)云母二长花岗岩。通过锆石SHRIMP U-Pb法测得岩体侵位年龄为122.5±2.1 Ma(2σ),MSWD=1.9,成岩时代为早白垩世。主元素中,SiO2变化于67.20%~75.16%,K2O含量高,且K2O>Na2O,K2O/Na2O为1.16~1.72;ASI值变化于0.96~1.10之间,平均1.02,属准铝质-微过铝质、高钾钙碱性系列。岩石明显富集大离子亲石元素,亏损高场强元素,Rb/Sr=0.27~15.13;Nb/Ta=15.9~17.1,为锶和铌亏损型。ΣREE总体较高,重稀土含量相对较高,轻重稀土分馏稍弱,ΣCe/ΣY为0.49~6.18,(La/Yb)N为0.66~15.54。有较高的εNd(t),为-6.8~-8.7;T2DM相对较小(1.47~1.62 Ga)。综合研究表明,小墨山花岗岩石为壳源型富黑云母过铝花岗岩类(CPG),其成因应为下地壳物质和上地壳物质混合而成,与花岗岩底侵作用或注入地壳中的幔源岩浆有关,形成的构造背景为陆内挤压造山向非造山转换的后造山拉张环境,是在...     

库存弹药事故人误危险性评估研究

提出了库存弹药事故人误的定义,从个体角度分析了人误事件发生的机理.构建了人误固有危险性的评价指标体系及评判标准,考虑了6类危险性抵消因子对人误的影响.最后,建立了评估库存弹药事故人误危险性的数学模型.