民航运行中的威胁与差错管理

在民航运行中的威胁与差错管理的理论基础上,指出威胁与差错管理的目标并非消除威胁与差错,而是把其危害控制在一个可以接受的范围以内。分别界定了威胁、差错、非期望状况的概念,优化了威胁与差错管理的模型,并给予详细的实证分析。进一步丰富了威胁与差错管理的框架形式,提出了系统完善策略。该研究取得的成果有助于民航业从主动控制的角度提升安全效能。     

Aerial lift fall injuries: a surveillance and evaluation approach for targeting prevention activities

PROBLEM: Work on aerial lift platforms exposes workers to fall hazards. The objective of this study was to identify the most common injury scenarios and determine current research gaps for addressing fall incidents associated with aerial lifts. METHODS: Three databases were searched: Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (CFOI), NIOSH Fatality Assessment and Control Evaluation (FACE) reports, and OSHA Incident Investigation Records. RESULTS: The majority of falls/collapses/tipovers were within the height-category of 10-29 feet. Tipovers comprised 44-46% of boom-lift falls and 56-59% of scissor-lift falls. Constructing and repairing activities were most commonly associated with fall/collapse/tipover incidents. DISCUSSION: CFOI and OSHA/FACE show convergent data, suggesting similar scenarios for aerial lift tipovers. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The analysis provides the aerial lift industry information to prioritize their efforts on aerial lift design.     

江南古陆变质基底地层年代的修正和武陵运动构造意义

江南古陆变质基底的研究中,最突出的基础地质问题依然是地层年代的精确标定。地层年代标定涉及到成矿地层的划分和对比及其构造演化的时限,也直接影响层控矿床找矿中涉及的基础地质问题。在最新的中国地层年表中,前寒武纪地层对比和构造背景解释已发生重大变化。本文依据扬子块体和华夏块体新元古代地层中最新的系列锆石U-Pb测年结果,初步揭示"江南古陆"变质基底地层火山事件和分布范围。结合全球格林威尔造山运动基本特征,对江南古陆变质基底地层年代的修正将有利于重新厘定江南造山带的成矿背景,提供层控矿床基础年代地层资料,为新的矿产资源大调查服务。     

大气中多环芳烃气/粒分配的不确定性分析

于2010年8月10～14日用双层石英膜和双层聚氨酯泡沫（PUF）的方法采集并分析了厦门大学海洋楼顶大气中气态和颗粒态多环芳烃（PAHs）,并采用标准误差传递方法对气/粒分配系数（K_p）的不确定度进行了分析.测量结果显示,低分子量PAHs如萘、 苊、 二氢苊和芴在PUF吸附体系中的穿透能力最强,穿透率接近50％;如考虑第一层石英滤膜对气态萘、 苊和二氢苊的吸附影响,则校正后的K_p值比校正前相应的K_p值低1个数量级以上.采用标准误差传递方法得到PAHs气/粒分配系数K_p的不确定度,介于28.14%～50.37%之间,且表现为易挥发和难挥发性PAHs的K_p值皆具有较高的不确定度,而半挥发性PAHs的K_p值的不确定度则较小.K_p值的不确定度来源分析显示,气态PAHs浓度的不确定度的影响最大（方差贡献均值=77.9％）,其次为颗粒态PAHs浓度的不确定度（方差贡献均值=22.0％）,大气颗粒物浓度的不确定度影响最小（方差贡献均值=0.1％）.因此,选择合适的采样系统以获取更加准确的气态PAHs的浓度,是提高PAHs气/粒分配系数准确度的关键.     

气象参数对基于BP神经网络的PM2.5日均值预报模型的影响

建立了基于BP神经网络的PM2.5质量浓度预报模型,对广州市5个监测点2012年6月-2013年5月的PM2.5质量浓度日均值进行预报,分析了总体预报误差、不同风速和降雨量下的预报误差,以及天气预报误差对PM2.5质量浓度预报误差的影响.结果表明,BP神经网络模型对5个站点的PM2.5预报结果稳定,平均相对误差为29.71％.在有利于PM2.5扩散的气象条件下预报误差较大,风速较大时与风速较小时预报误差的差异高达15％,而不同降雨量情况下的预报误差较相近.修正天气预报后,各站点的预报误差平均降低了4.67％.这表明可从空气质量数据质量等方面人手改进模型.     

基于AHP-SLIM的航空器维修人误概率确定

人误是造成民用航空维修差错的主要因素。由于缺少实际的数据,对航空维修行业人为失误发生的规律进行研究是必要的,但是规律研究主要依赖于该领域专家的判断,很难确保一致性。为了克服这个困难得到更加准确的评估,本文将层次分析法同成功似然函数结合起来估计造成飞机/发动机/附件损坏的人误概率。该方法确定了航空器维修人员的安全态度、知识和技能、计划和监管、信息沟通等因素,对人误的影响程度以及飞机/发动机/附件损坏中常见人误的发生概率。计算结果表明,操作/试验时最容易发生飞机/发动机/附件损坏,并且提出加强组织和监管、严格按章办事等解决措施。     

Effects of Errors and Gaps in Spatial Data Sets on Assessment of Conservation Progress

Data on the location and extent of protected areas, ecosystems, and species’ distributions are essential for determining gaps in biodiversity protection and identifying future conservation priorities. However, these data sets always come with errors in the maps and associated metadata. Errors are often overlooked in conservation studies, despite their potential negative effects on the reported extent of protection of species and ecosystems. We used 3 case studies to illustrate the implications of 3 sources of errors in reporting progress toward conservation objectives: protected areas with unknown boundaries that are replaced by buffered centroids, propagation of multiple errors in spatial data, and incomplete protected‐area data sets. As of 2010, the frequency of protected areas with unknown boundaries in the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) caused the estimated extent of protection of 37.1% of the terrestrial Neotropical mammals to be overestimated by an average 402.8% and of 62.6% of species to be underestimated by an average 10.9%. Estimated level of protection of the world's coral reefs was 25% higher when using recent finer‐resolution data on coral reefs as opposed to globally available coarse‐resolution data. Accounting for additional data sets not yet incorporated into WDPA contributed up to 6.7% of additional protection to marine ecosystems in the Philippines. We suggest ways for data providers to reduce the errors in spatial and ancillary data and ways for data users to mitigate the effects of these errors on biodiversity assessments. Efectos de Errores y Vacíos en Conjuntos de Datos Espaciales sobre la Evaluación del Progreso de la Conservación     

Confronting Uncertainty and Missing Values in Environmental Value Transfer as Applied to Species Conservation

Abstract: The nonuse (or passive) value of nature is important but time‐consuming and costly to quantify with direct surveys. In the absence of estimates of these values, there will likely be less investment in conservation actions that generate substantial nonuse benefits, such as conservation of native species. To help overcome decisions about the allocation of conservation dollars that reflect the lack of estimates of nonuse values, these values can be estimated indirectly by environmental value transfer (EVT). EVT uses existing data or information from a study site such that the estimated monetary value of an environmental good is transferred to another location or policy site. A major challenge in the use of EVT is the uncertainty about the sign and size of the error (i.e., the percentage by which transferred value exceeds the actual value) that results from transferring direct estimates of nonuse values from a study to a policy site, the site where the value is transferred. An EVT is most useful if the decision‐making framework does not require highly accurate information and when the conservation decision is constrained by time and financial resources. To account for uncertainty in the decision‐making process, a decision heuristic that guides the decision process and illustrates the possible decision branches, can be followed. To account for the uncertainty associated with the transfer of values from one site to another, we developed a risk and simulation approach that uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the net benefits of conservation investments and takes into account different possible distributions of transfer error. This method does not reduce transfer error, but it provides a way to account for the effect of transfer error in conservation decision making. Our risk and simulation approach and decision‐based framework on when to use EVT offer better‐informed decision making in conservation.     

海上钻井平台井喷事故人因失误分析

井喷是海上钻井平台的重要威胁，而人因失误又是造成井喷的主要原因，所以对井喷事故人因失误分析对指导海上钻井安全有重要意义。本文建立了井喷事故人因失误类故障树模型，并对此进行定量分析。根据井喷事故的4个指标并结合风险图得到降低风险所需的置信水平，然后使用训练屏障和 GPS 定位屏障将风险降低到可接受水平。最后通过蝴蝶结模型将安全屏障对风险的影响清楚的展示出来，为人因失误的预防和控制提供指导。     

Relative Contributions of Sampling Error in Initial Population Size and Vital Rates to Outcomes of Population Viability Analysis

Abstract:  We evaluated the relative contributions of sampling error (randomly chosen standard errors applied as 0–30% of parameter estimates) in initial population size and vital rates (survival and reproduction) to the outcome of a simulated population viability analysis for grizzly bears (  Ursus arctos ). Error in initial population size accounted for the largest source of variation (model II analysis of variance, F _25,5= 10.8, p = 0.00001) in simulation outcomes, explaining 60.5% of the variance. In contrast, error in vital rates contributed little to simulation outcomes ( F _25,5= 0.61, p = 0.70), accounting for only 2.4% of model variation. Reduced global variation in vital rates, as a result of independent random sampling of annual deviates for each parameter, likely contributed to the results. Errors in estimates of initial population size, if ignored in PVA, have the potential to leave managers with estimates of population persistence that are of little value for making management decisions.