某场地边坡稳定分析方法的比较研究*

为了对边坡稳定性分析方法进行研究,以某场地高填方边坡和直立边坡为研究对象,基于Geostudio、理正软件以及ANSYS软件,采用M-P法、Bishop法和强度折减法进行边坡稳定分析。结果表明:高填方边坡安全系数为1.3,为稳定边坡;AB,BC,CD段地块间边坡边坡安全系数依次为0.479,0.410,0.381,基坑边坡安全系数为0.436,均为不稳定边坡;其中,M-P法得到的安全系数偏保守,Bishop法得到的安全系数结果较可靠,强度折减法得到的结果最为理想。研究结果可为边坡稳定性研究与治理提供借鉴。     

Determination of emergency assembly point for industrial accidents with AHP analysis

Major industrial accidents, which are a type of technological disaster, are very important due to the security risks and financial damages that threaten the environment and human health in today's industrialization. In this study, it was aimed to propose an approach that will guide the decision makers to choose the emergency assembly point that should be in the distance or shelter where the employees will be not affected by the negative consequences of emergencies within the scope of the obligation of industrial establishments preparing an internal emergency plan for major industrial accidents. For this purpose, in the first stage, modelling studies were carried out with ALOHA (Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) Software over possible accident scenarios in an industrial establishment containing different types and amounts of hazardous chemicals. As a result of modelling studies, possible toxic emissions, fire and explosion effect distances and threat zones for the industrial establishment were obtained. In the second stage, the weights of the main and sub-selection criteria to be used in determining the assembly point were calculated. This stage was carried out based on the comparison data obtained as a result of the questionnaire applied to professionals with the help of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method, which is one of the multi-criteria decision making methods. In the last stage, three candidate points were selected considering the physical effect areas determined in the first stage in the boundaries of the establishment, where the employees were evaluated to be affected the minimum from the negative consequences of industrial accidents. These candidate points were evaluated again with the AHP method on the basis of the sub-criteria whose relative weights were determined in the second stage and a selection was made. As a result, an approach that provides the solution of our problem was obtained.     

Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.     

The method for leakage detection of urban natural gas pipeline based on the improved ITA and ALO

To solve the problems of the difficulty in early leakage monitoring and larger positioning error for urban hazardous chemicals pipelines, the optimized method based on the improved Inverse Transient Analysis (ITA) and Ant Lion Optimizer (ALO) was proposed. Firstly, based on the obtained experiment's results of leakage of natural gas in the non-metallic pipeline, the segment classification method was incorporated into the pressure gradient calculation. The modified method can adapt to the multi-node characteristics of urban pipe networks and help to obtain the preliminary positioning calculation results after optimization. Then the calculation results were embedded in the ITA calculation model. The input parameters of the gas pipeline such as boundary conditions, leakage rate and friction coefficient were used to establish the characteristic linear equations. Then the objective function of the least-squares criterion was defined, and the improved ITA model suitable for leakage detection of urban natural gas pipeline networks was constructed. Finally, the ALO was used to optimize the calculation process of the improved ITA model, and iteratively optimize the optimal friction coefficient and its corresponding minimum objective function (OF) value. As a result, a more precise location of the leakage source was calculated. The validation of the modified method is conducted by comparing the calculated values with the experiment's results. The results show that the method can accurately predict the location where the pipeline leakage occurs. The minimum error is 3.17%. Compared with the traditional ITA, this method not only accelerates the convergence speed of the objective function, but also improves the accuracy of location calculation.     

生化需氧量(BOD5)测定方法的改进和数据的图解法处理

介绍了图解法的原理,实验条件,实验方法,并采用图解法和标准法,通过对国家标准样品和有代表性的实际水样进行ＢＯＤ５测定和比较,所有试验样品的测定值均在标准样品的已知值范围内。图解法与标准法相比,两者误差不超过±５％,证明了图解法的准确性,合理性和实用性。图解法是标准法的改进,它简化了实验操作,减少了误差,使测定计算更准确。     

报废轻武器毁形方法研究

目的 研究探索报废轻武器毁形方法。方法 根据报废轻武器的毁形难点,分析切割、粉碎、锻压、熔炼等各种现有毁形方法的技术优势、难点及可行性,并对部分毁形技术进行验证试验,确定可以应用于轻武器毁形的技术方法。结果 经过试验检验,机械切割无法切断14.5 mm枪管,激光切割、等离子切割无法直接切透14.5 mm枪管,粉碎机无法对14.5 mm枪管进行完全破碎,加热和锻压技术可以对枪支实现彻底毁形,加热粉碎技术对14.5 mm枪管破碎效果一般,残疾规格随意性大。结论 组合运用加热和锻压技术进行轻武器毁形具有时间短、效率高、操作简单的优势,而且便于实现销毁自动化。     

长江三角洲城市内河环境治理的居民支付意愿比较研究 ——上海、南京与杭州实例调查

应用意愿价值评估法(CVM)的技术调查上海、南京和杭州城市内河环境治理的居民支付意愿,并探讨研究结果是否在城市间保持稳定.基于1258份问卷的统计分析,结果显示:上海、南京和杭州居民的支付意愿均值分别为20.5,25.4,20.3元/(户×月);进一步的线性对数模型分析结果表明,收入、环境意识等变量在3城市都呈现显著影响,而户籍、教育等因素在各城市模型中存在显著性差异;3城市混合数据模型显示,南京样本支付意愿显著高于其他2城市样本,杭州与上海调查样本无显著性差异.上述结果揭示了不同城市居民对城市内河治理的支付意愿呈现稳定性,为意愿价值评估法在我国不同区域间的“效益转移”研究提供了实证支持.但另一方面,参数模型表现出一定的差异,需要对模型作进一步的优化.     

多源信息融合技术在内陆湖库水华预警中的研究进展与展望

面对水体富营养化愈来愈严重,水华爆发越来越频繁的严峻形式;为减少水华发生频率及由此造成的损失,开展水华预警已成当务之急。水华爆发是水体中营养盐的累积、气候条件与水力条件等众多因素非线性共同作用的产物;为此,有必要在众多水华影响因素的动态监测信息的融合基础上,寻求水华爆发与这些影响因素间的影射关系,这就需要信息融合技术。通过归纳总结多源信息融合技术在内陆湖库水华预警中应用的研究进展,结合目前我国水华预警的具体需求,提出建立基于多源信息融合技术的水华预警决策支持系统的研究前景与初步设想。信息融合技术为水华预警提供了一个良好的平台,它将与水华相关的不同信息源（水文、气象、水环境质量与环境遥感）所提供的局部不完整的观测信息加以集成与互补,消除多源信息之间存在的冗余和矛盾,形成对水华爆发环境相对完整的感知与描述;从而提高水华预警与应急响应决策的效率,提高预警信息的时间与空间分辨率,扩展信息的时空监测范围。     

弹药公路运输安全评估研究综述

综述了我军弹药公路运输安全评估的研究现状和特点规律,分析提出了现有研究成果在理论和技术层面的不足,为该领域研究提供参考借鉴.基于军地两类文献数据库,采用文献检索法、对比法和归纳法对我军弹药公路运输安全评估相关内容进行了梳理,分析了弹药公路运输安全评估研究的热点方向,阐述了安全评估方法与安全评估技术2个方面研究的不足.我...     

基于GIS和组合赋权法的农村生态功能适宜性评价及管制分区

在村级土地利用规划过程中进行生态功能适宜性评价,以了解农村生态质量状况、明确农村生态功能适宜程度及空间分布,为村级土地利用规划中土地利用方向的确定和空间布局的划分提供科学的生态适宜依据,从而更好地协调农村发展建设和生态环境保护的关系有着至关重要的作用。以岩南村为例,开展了农村生态功能适宜性评价及应用研究。以高分辨率航空影像为数据源,从地形条件、土壤资源、生物资源、水资源、人类干扰5个方面建立了评价指标体系;利用组合赋权法确定各评价因子的权重值,构建了生态功能适宜性评价模型;以栅格为评价单元,在GIS支持下,对岩南村进行生态功能适宜性评价。并根据评价结果划分了生态功能适宜等级,制定了分区管制措施,提出了土地利用建议,旨在为岩南村土地利用规划提供指导