基于灰色聚类法的地铁运营安全趋势分析

为评估地铁运营安全水平,掌握地铁运营风险变化趋势,采用灰色聚类法对某地铁线路运营一年以来每个月份的安全水平进行了分级评价。选取对地铁日常运营具有重要影响的设备设施故障作为评价指标,评价方法挖掘地铁运营以来的历史数据信息,体现了设备设施故障变化的时间特性,减少了安全评价中的主观性。将地铁运营安全水平分为五个安全等级,选取15%、35%、50%、65%、85%作为各安全等级的累积百分频率特征点,建立白化权函数得到各评价指标的灰类白化值。结合各设备设施的指标权重,得到了地铁线路运营一年来每个月份的安全等级情况。该方法为分析地铁运营安全趋势提供了参考。     

省域旅游发展的错位现象及旅游资源相对效率评价——以中国大陆31省市区2000—2009年面板数据为例

以中国大陆31 个省级区域2000—2009 年的面板数据(因资料有限,未计算香港、澳门和台湾地区)为例,运用熵值法对各地区旅游资源禀赋状况进行评价,进一步构建错位指数,对各地区旅游业发展的“错位(诅咒) ”现象进行定量分析,同时结合旅游资源相对效率,对各地区旅游资源开发提出相应的建议。研究表明,总体上大陆旅游资源存在着一定程度的负向错位现象,正向错位的地区主要位于东部地区,且集中分布在长三角、珠三角、京津地区;发生负向错位现象的地区主要位于广大中西部地区。不同区域效率的驱动模式各不相同,东部地区旅游资源总效率主要受纯技术效率驱动,西部地区旅游资源总效率主要受规模效率驱动。效率排名与错位指数排名表现出很强的正相关性,结合两者的关系为未来省域旅游资源开发利用提供相应的建议。     

影响中国碳排放绩效的区域特征研究——基于熵值法的聚类分析

论文选择影响碳排放绩效的主要指标,基于熵值法确定各指标权重,采用系统聚类分析的方法,以中国省域为研究对象,将全国分为7类区域。分析结果显示:区域分工特征是造成目前中国省级碳排放绩效区域差异的主要影响因素,其次是高碳产业工艺特征和能源结构特征,而经济结构对解释省级碳排放绩效区域差异的贡献有限。北方地区高碳产品生产份额高且工艺水平相对低,能源消费中极高的煤炭比例加重了负面影响,造成其二氧化碳排放绩效水平低,特别是华北地区;近年来东南沿海地区高碳产业也逐步增加,但由于其工艺先进,在一定程度上抵消了高碳产品份额高的负面影响;中西部地区目前高碳产品份额虽然低于东部地区,但工艺水平也低,造成了其低水平的二氧化碳排放绩效。由于各省历史发展、自然资源禀赋、区域分工角色等因素不同,且遵从经济宏观发展客观规律和经济区位理论,除了少数发达地区之外,中国其他区域短时间内很难改变其经济和能源结构,低碳政策制定的重点应放在提高高碳产业工艺水平方面。     

Book reviews and notices

The aim of sustainable development is to balance social, economic, and environmental needs. In order to justify the decisions they make, stakeholders must quantify the different impacts found in the operations and developments of companies and/or projects throughout their life cycle. However, as some areas are subjective in nature, the quantification process of the different impacts and the assessment of sustainable development performance become arduous tasks of development, validation, and application of scientific and empirical methods with the intrinsic objective of finding an agreement among the involved parties (i.e., stakeholders). Several environmental and sustainability assessment tools, instruments, processes, and methodologies have been developed; rating systems stand out and have gained attention and credibility, as demonstrated by the vast number of certified projects around the world and the widely-known usefulness and advantages of their application. The Wa-Pa-Su project sustainability rating system presents an integrated approach to sustainability assessment by integrating three distinctive areas of knowledge: (1) sustainable development theory and fundamentals supports the ultimate goal of the rating system, which is to contribute to sustainability, with the aim of finding a path to balance social, economic, and environmental needs; (2) continual performance improvement becomes essential due to the duration of the projects, as it is critical to allow organizations or projects to improve performance over time; and (3) multi-criteria decision analysis assists with the assessment process through stakeholder engagement and participation, and the design and implementation of a criteria weighting system.     

土壤种子库研究方法评述

土壤种子库（soil seed bank,SSB）是指存在于土壤表面和土壤中的全部存活种子的总和。开展对土壤种子库的研究,对于分析了解过去地上植被植物群落和预示未来植被发展方向具有重要的指导意义,而对于土壤种子库研究方法的探讨则是开展土壤种子库基础实验研究的基础和支撑。本文从土壤种子库的取样时间、取样方法、取样大小和数量、鉴定方法四个方面归纳了土壤种子库的研究方法,理论分析了同位素应用于土壤种子库中种子年龄结构测定的可行性,以及植冠种子库的研究方法,并探讨了提高土壤种子库中种子萌发率的新方法。综合分析来看：（1）土壤种子库的取样时间、取样方法、取样大小和数量、鉴定方法是土壤种子库研究方法需要关注的四大关键问题,对土壤种子库的实验结果具有显著的直接影响。不同的取样时间代表的土壤种子库的内容和意义不同,取样方法、大小和数量则应根据研究区和研究内容来确定,鉴定方法也应根据具体实验区研究的物种数来考量;（2）理论上在利用同位素来测定土壤种子库中种子年龄结构是可行的,但若想广泛应用于实验中仍需进一步的深入研究;（3）目前对植冠种子库的研究方法也仅仅局限于直接计数法和间接计数法,对植冠种子库的研究方法的探讨则急需加强;（4）同时总结和提出了4种提高土壤种子库中种子萌发率的方法,未来在利用种子萌发法时,应加强注意和应用这4种方法来测定土壤种子库。     

Temporary site selection and decision‐making methods: a case study of Tehran,Iran

Decisions on selecting an appropriate site for temporary shelter used to be taken in a limited amount of time after a disaster. The need for a systematic method in this area inspired the MADM (multi‐attribute decision making) for complex disaster management decisions. This research proposes a model for appropriate and systematic site selection for temporary shelters, before an earthquake, using a geographical information system and MADM based on an earthquake damage assessment. After the effective criteria for site selection of temporary shelters are determined, the geographical layers of these criteria are prepared for Municipal District No.1 of Greater Tehran, the capital of Iran. Given these attributes and the required shelter area (415–610 hectares), 14 zones are proposed initially. Various MADM methods are used for the final selection. The mean of the aggregated ranking results are determined, and 10 of the 14 initial zones are ranked.     

高效液相色谱-荧光检测法同时测定畜禽粪便中4种磺胺类药物残留

建立了高效液相色谱-荧光检测法测定畜禽粪便中4种磺胺药物(磺胺甲基嘧啶(SM1)、磺胺氯哒嗪(SCP)、磺胺邻二甲氧嘧啶(SDM’)、磺胺喹噁啉(SQ))的方法.样品用25 mL甲醇提取3次,合并提取液,浓缩干燥,用0.1 mol.L-1的HCL溶解残渣,经荧光胺衍生化后,用反相C18柱为分离柱,以乙腈∶0.5%乙酸=40∶60(V/V)为流动相进行洗脱,20 min内分离4种药物.在0.05—5.00μg.mL-1范围内,4种磺胺类药物的峰面积与质量浓度的线性关系良好(R2≥0.999),SM1、SCP、SDM’、SQ的定量限(LOQ)分别为2.3、6.3、4.3和9.6μg.kg-1;添加水平为50、100、1000μg.kg-1时,SM1、SCP、SDM’、SQ的回收率分别为74.91%—81.82%、78.45%—91.43%和86.10%—92.88%,RSD小于8.82%.     

土壤中短链氯化石蜡的气相色谱-电子捕获负化学电离-质谱分析方法

通过考察层析柱对测定短链氯化石蜡(SCCPs)干扰物去除效果的影响,结合实际土壤样品的净化需求,建立了一套适合分析土壤中SCCPs的前处理方法.土壤样品使用索氏抽提,采用硅胶复合柱和弗罗里硅土柱净化,运用气相色谱-质谱(ECNI源)检测SCCPs.SCCPs的仪器定量限为100—600 pg.μL-1.空白加标和基质加标中SCCPs的回收率分别为130%±8.50%和108%±17.8%(SD,n=3).利用该方法分析了采自广州市郊区的6个土壤样品,其SCCPs的含量范围为12.9—34.5 ng.g-1,平均值为26.1 ng.g-1.     

响应面法在催化湿式氧化降解异佛尔酮中的应用

以Ru/TiZrO2为催化剂,采用催化湿式氧化法降解异佛尔酮废水,选择反应温度、氧气分压、反应时间、催化剂用量、初始pH为影响因素,以TOC去除率为响应值,采用响应面法研究影响因素及其交互作用对响应值的影响,建立二次多项式回归方程模型,并采用后退回归法进行模型精简.结果表明,反应时间和反应温度及其交互作用对TOC去除率影响极显著(P≤0.01);反应时间的二次项对TOC去除率影响显著(P≤0.05).随着反应温度的升高和反应时间的延长,TOC去除率逐渐提高.最后对模型进行验证,实验值与预测值具有很好的一致性,说明模型具有可靠的预测性,将该模型应用到催化湿式氧化中合理可行.质谱和离子色谱检测到异佛尔酮的降解产物主要为有机酮与小分子羧酸,由此提出对反应机理和降解途径的假设.     

Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.