Active Adaptive Management for Conservation

Abstract:  Active adaptive management balances the requirements of management with the need to learn about the system being managed, which leads to better decisions. It is difficult to judge the benefit of management actions that accelerate information gain, relative to the benefit of making the best management decision given what is known at the time. We present a first step in developing methods to optimize management decisions that incorporate both uncertainty and learning via adaptive management. We assumed a manager can allocate effort to discrete units (e.g., areas for revegetation or animals for reintroduction), the outcome can be measured as success or failure (e.g., the revegetation in an area is successful or the animal survives and breeds), and the manager has two possible management options from which to choose. We further assumed that there is an annual budget that may be allocated to one or both of the two options and that the manager must decide on the allocation. We used Bayesian updating of the probability of success of the two options and stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal strategy over a specified number of years. The costs, level of certainty about the success of the two options, and the timeframe of management all influenced the optimal allocation of the annual budget. In addition, the choice of management objective had a large influence on the optimal decision. In a case study of Merri Creek, Melbourne, Australia, we applied the approach to determining revegetation strategies. Our approach can be used to determine how best to manage ecological systems in the face of uncertainty.     

Incorporating the Effects of Socioeconomic Uncertainty into Priority Setting for Conservation Investment

Abstract:  Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.     

Choosing a home: how the scouts in a honey bee swarm perceive the completion of their group decision making

This study considers the mystery of how the scout bees in a honey bee swarm know when they have completed their group decision making regarding the swarm's new nest site. More specifically, we investigated how the scouts sense when it is appropriate for them to begin producing the worker piping signals that stimulate their swarm-mates to prepare for the flight to their new home. We tested two hypotheses: "consensus sensing," the scouts noting when all the bees performing waggle dances are advertising just one site; and "quorum sensing," the scouts noting when one site is being visited by a sufficiently large number of scouts. Our test involved monitoring four swarms as they discovered, recruited to, and chose between two nest boxes and their scouts started producing piping signals. We found that a consensus among the dancers was neither necessary nor sufficient for the start of worker piping, which indicates that the consensus sensing hypothesis is false. We also found that a buildup of 10–15 or more bees at one of the nest boxes was consistently associated with the start of worker piping, which indicates that the quorum sensing hypothesis may be true. In considering why the scout bees rely on reaching a quorum rather than a consensus as their cue of when to start preparing for liftoff, we suggest that quorum sensing may provide a better balance between accuracy and speed in decision making. In short, the bees appear to begin preparations for liftoff as soon as enough of the scout bees, but not all of them, have approved of one of the potential nest sites.

加速遗传算法及其在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用

提出了一般非线性自然灾害模型参数优化的一种通用的数值方法———加速遗传算法,分析了该算法控制参数的优化特性,总结出了这些参数的简便设置技术,并给出了它在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用实例。该方法可广泛应用于各种自然灾害模型的优化问题。     

海河平原农业供水的决策分析模型

本文根据海河平原水源不足的问题,采用系统分析的方法,探讨了农业供水的对策。提出的决策分析模型可望适用于不同大小的区域。通过实际资料的分析得出实行节流、管理与开源的具体方案及经济效益。分析成果表明推行节水灌溉技术与管理措施是完全可行的。在建立节流系统(包括管带与滴灌及调整耕作制度、作物布局)和加强水管理的基础上,实行开源引江、引黄,可大大缩减调水规模,降低开源工程投资,缓和工农与城乡供水的矛盾。     

改进的DEMATEL法在航空公司外委维修安全风险分析中的应用

为有效识别和分析外委维修安全风险因素间复杂的影响关系,提出了群决策DEMATEL分析方法。该方法以语言变量和三角模糊数之间的转换为基础,通过群决策理论集结专家信息建立直接影响矩阵;利用DEMATEL分析法对外委维修的安全风险因素进行辨识,实现定性定量相结合的分析。以某航空公司为例,采用该方法分析了14个对外委维修安全影响显著的风险因素。结果表明,在外委维修过程中,航空公司和承修商应重点监控7个原因型因素和中心度排序靠前的6个因素。     

地震灾后重建中的多元化资金支持研究

本文以汶川地震为背景,针对灾后重建资金需求量大、持续时间长的特点,提出灾后重建资金来源应以财政资金为引导,走多元化的道路;并分别从财政资金支持、信贷资金支持、社会资金支持、国外资金支持、保险资金支持、证券市场资金支持的角度进行分析,提出了在财政资金引导下,切实可行的多元化资金支持建议.     

纳米TiO_2-Al_2O_3负载CuMnO_x对甲苯的催化燃烧

研究采用改进的溶胶-凝胶法制备了TiO2-Al2O3复合载体,并用浸渍法制备CuMnOX/TiO2-Al2O3催化剂,通过对甲苯废气催化燃烧的实验,分别考察了Cu-Mn负载量、Cu/Mn摩尔比、焙烧温度及载体对催化剂制备过程及催化剂活性的影响。实验结果表明:活性组分负载量25%,铜锰活性组分的配比Cu:Mn=1:2,焙烧温度500℃是浸渍法制备CuMnOX/TiO2-Al2O3催化剂较佳的工艺条件;XRD衍射图谱表明,500℃下铜锰尖晶石的存在是催化剂催化活性优良的主要原因;由复合载体制备的CuMnOX/TiO2-Al2O3催化剂比单一载体制备的CuMnOX/Al2O3催化剂具有更高的甲苯转化率,其T99比单一载体要低20℃以上。     

熵权多目标决策模型在水环境质量综合评价中的应用

介绍了熵和熵权的概念与性质,在此基础上结合多目标决策模型建立熵权多目标决策评价方法,并对水环境质量进行综合评价,评价结果与物元分析模型、属性识别理论方法、模糊隶属函数法进行对比,结果表明,利用熵权多目标决策评价法进行水环境质量综合评价是可行的。     

Determination of emergency assembly point for industrial accidents with AHP analysis

Major industrial accidents, which are a type of technological disaster, are very important due to the security risks and financial damages that threaten the environment and human health in today's industrialization. In this study, it was aimed to propose an approach that will guide the decision makers to choose the emergency assembly point that should be in the distance or shelter where the employees will be not affected by the negative consequences of emergencies within the scope of the obligation of industrial establishments preparing an internal emergency plan for major industrial accidents. For this purpose, in the first stage, modelling studies were carried out with ALOHA (Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) Software over possible accident scenarios in an industrial establishment containing different types and amounts of hazardous chemicals. As a result of modelling studies, possible toxic emissions, fire and explosion effect distances and threat zones for the industrial establishment were obtained. In the second stage, the weights of the main and sub-selection criteria to be used in determining the assembly point were calculated. This stage was carried out based on the comparison data obtained as a result of the questionnaire applied to professionals with the help of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method, which is one of the multi-criteria decision making methods. In the last stage, three candidate points were selected considering the physical effect areas determined in the first stage in the boundaries of the establishment, where the employees were evaluated to be affected the minimum from the negative consequences of industrial accidents. These candidate points were evaluated again with the AHP method on the basis of the sub-criteria whose relative weights were determined in the second stage and a selection was made. As a result, an approach that provides the solution of our problem was obtained.