Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management

In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.     

A scoping review of post-disaster social support investigations conducted after disasters that struck the Australia and Oceania continent

This scoping review provides a summary of research findings on social support dynamics in the wake of disasters that occurred on the continent of Australia and Oceania between 1983 and 2013. Forty-one studies, quantitative and qualitative, were summarised, investigating different facets of post-disaster supportive interactions. All inquiries assessed disasters resulting from natural hazards, with the majority of them conducted following events in Australia and New Zealand. The review revealed similar patterns of post-disaster social support dynamics that routinely unfold after disastrous incidents all over the world. Consistent with the disaster mental health literature, the documentation of social support mobilisation and social support deterioration processes was common. Salutary direct effects of supportive behaviours on post-disaster psychological distress were also highly evident. Most studies, however, posed research questions or hypotheses that lacked empirical or theoretical grounding. In conclusion, the review offers several recommendations on how to advance research on post-disaster social support.     

Catchment-Wide Wetland Assessment and Prioritization Using the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method TOPSIS

It is widely accepted that wetland ecosystems are under threat worldwide. Many communities are now trying to establish wetland rehabilitation programs, but are confounded by a lack of objective information on wetland condition or significance. In this study, a multi-criteria decision-making method, TOPSIS (the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), was adapted to assist in the role of assessing wetland condition and rehabilitation priority in the Clarence River Catchment (New South Wales, Australia). Using 13 GIS data layers that described wetland character, wetland protection, and wetland threats, the wetlands were ranked in terms of condition. Through manipulation of the original model, the wetlands were prioritized for rehabilitation. The method offered a screening tool for the managers in choosing potential candidate wetlands for rehabilitation in a region.     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

Framing of Geoengineering Affects Support for Climate Change Mitigation

The growing recognition that climate change mitigation alone will be inadequate has led scientists and policymakers to discuss climate geoengineering. An experiment with a US sample found, contrary to previous research, that reading about geoengineering did not reduce conservatives’ skepticism about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, depending on how it is framed, geoengineering can reduce support for mitigation among both conservatives and non-conservatives. When geoengineering is framed as a major solution, people worry less about climate change, leading to reduced mitigation support. When framed as disastrous, people perceived geoengineering as riskier, also leading to a decrease in mitigation support. A more moderate framing of geoengineering as a partial solution is less susceptible to moral hazard effects. Overall, results suggest that geoengineering will not lessen political polarization over anthropogenic climate change, and could undercut support for mitigation efforts. Instead, framing geoengineering as a small piece to solving a big puzzle seems to be the best strategy to weaken this potential moral hazard.     

危化品事故应急辅助决策支持系统的研究

该文提出了以一个事故工程文件处置、管理一次事故的思想。根据危险化学品事故发生的一般特点和事故处置的一般程序,建立了危险化学平事故应急辅助决策支持软件平台。该软件平台利用GIS技术实现了事故的基本情况、事故初始处置、事故事态发展、现场监测预警等功能,在软件平台的基础上搭配相应的硬件设备组成一套完整的应急辅助决策系统。     

Methods for integrated assessment

Integrated assessment is an approach that seeks to involve all disciplines in policy-relevant assessment. The process aims to encompass environmental science, technology and policy problems. The aim is to establish an overview of the environmental issue in question that attempts to avoid the mistakes of the past associated with narrow, one-sided or unidimensional approaches. A number of methods are available for such assessments. However, they are also subject to a number of limitations, difficulties and dilemmas. Integrated methods are inherently complicated and the tradition is that only experts are involved. New more inclusionary procedures have to be devised in order to involve all stakeholders. They have to be involved in the framing of the issue and in the value judgements associated with the approach. The dilemmas cannot be solved by integrated approaches, but they can be mitigated via proper identification, analysis and evaluation of the gains and losses involved. In structuring the analysis the existence of ignorance has to be accounted for and communicated to the managers and the political decision makers. The ignorance/uncertainty aspects can be partially accommodated for via an intensification of feasible monitoring and research so as to minimise the risks of unpleasant surprises. Electronic Publication     

A spatially explicit backcasting approach for sustainable land-use planning

General backcasting as a decision support and planning method starts from desired future states and simulates developments backwards until reaching the present state. Development pathways that reveal steps to be taken to reach a certain future state, and milestones that serve as interim goals, are created during the process. Backcasting has hitherto only been applied in workshops or as a theoretical framework and no spatially explicit backcasting model has previously been established. This paper presents the development of a spatially explicit backcasting model. The proposed model first creates a future scenario utilizing an agent-based model and then simulates backwards. It is implemented using the programming language Python. The model has been applied to a case study for sustainable land-use planning in Salzburg, Austria. The results of the model run show a successful backcasting of land-use classes from a future state back to the present, in 10 year time steps.     

Getting caught up in the game: managing non-formal dynamics in the remediation of contaminated sediments in Oslo harbor

This study aims at describing, analyzing and evaluating the relation between management styles and process dynamics of a complex planning process confronted with unexpected dynamics. The development of an aquatic disposal site for dredged contaminated sediments in Oslo was managed by a project management style focused on timely and cost-effective implementation. Coupling the remediation project with another infrastructural project and the actual construction of the site led to unexpected dynamics in terms of resistance and controversy. Project management had difficulties in adjusting its style accordingly, resulting in even more delay and resistance. Managing complex planning projects requires a style suitable to the characteristics of the project and the capability of adjusting it to changing circumstances. The paper concludes with some explanations why it is difficult to change management styles in complex planning and implementation processes and complexity-embracing approaches to deal with this.     

Ecosystem services assessments in local municipal decision making in South Africa: justification for the use of a business-based approach

The ecosystem services (ES) concept is being increasingly incorporated into environmental policy formulation and management approaches. The Corporate Ecosystem Services Review (ESR) is a framework used to assess the dependence and impact that a business has on ES. The success of the corporate experience of ES assessment provides an opportunity for adaption for local authority decision making. In this paper, the ESR tool was adapted to the South African setting at a local government level, and tested at two sites in the Msunduzi Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal. In testing the tool and gathering feedback from key stakeholders, it was found that there are both opportunities and challenges to this approach. Overall, however, it provides an opportunity for the systematic inclusion of ES assessment into existing regulatory frameworks for land-use planning and Integrated Environmental Management, whether in a strategic application, at a broader spatial (municipal) scale or in a specific locale within the municipality.