灰色局势决策法在地下水水质评价中的应用

概要叙述了灰色局势决策法的计算步骤,以铜锣山地区12眼水井为研究对象,选取硫酸盐、氯化物、总硬度和总溶解性固体等4项评价因子,然后用该法对研究区域岩溶地下水进行评价.评判结果表明,该地区赋存于三叠系中统雷口坡组和下统嘉陵江组地层中的地下水水质较好.结果为评价该地区隧道施工中地下水环境负效应提供了依据.     

洪水预报调度决策支持系统的设计与开发

基于C/S和B/S相结合的结构模式,开发了九龙江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统。该系统采用了马斯京根矩阵解法、卡尔曼滤波实时校正、交互式调度方案生成、ASP等关键技术,实现了信息管理、洪水预报、洪水调度和系统管理等功能。     

基于运行机制的旅游扶贫支持系统和开发模式

旅游扶贫作为一种特殊性的开发扶贫形式,核心目标是以发展旅游业带动经济欠发达地区脱贫致富,但目前我国国内旅游扶贫工作仍然存在很多问题.在分析旅游扶贫特性和运行机制的基础上,提出了基于运行机制的旅游扶贫支持系统,阐述了该系统的构建基础及其要素组合,并分别从旅游资源相对优势、资源特性、区域经济、城乡关系及开发时序方面探讨了相应的开发模式,以此关注贫困人口和贫困社区利益这一核心问题.     

基于GIS的地震次生火灾蔓延范围模拟

地震次生火灾对人类的危害极大。笔者首先在对阻止火蔓延的因素进行分析以及对以往调查资料分析的基础上,确定了阻止火蔓延的距离与建筑物结构及防火类型的关系。然后,在阻止火蔓延距离的基础上,确定了地震次生火灾蔓延范围模拟的方法以及流程。最后,以汕头市为例,对地震次生火灾蔓延范围进行了模拟。通过对地震次生火灾蔓延范围的研究,为地震应急救灾提供了决策的科学依据。     

基于GIS的小城镇洪灾淹没分析与应急决策系统

近年来,将GIS技术与水文模型相结合,再根据数字高程模型DEM预测、模拟显示洪水淹没区,并进行灾害评估,已成为GIS应用和水利领域一个研究热点。笔者介绍了利用GIS技术建立的小城镇洪灾淹没分析与应急决策系统的构架、数据库的建设及其实现的功能等内容。该系统解决了一系列关键技术:小城镇空间数据库的建库技术及三维可视化、洪水淹没范围的确定以及洪水淹没实时动态演示等,能够对洪水灾害及其损失进行分析预测,对洪水灾情进行快速评估,是小城镇政府部门科学地制定防洪和减灾对策,迅速有效地采取抗洪救灾措施的保障手段。该系统适合我国现有国情,有利于维护小城镇社会经济持续稳定发展,具有很强的现实意义。     

Real-time response system for the prediction of the atmospheric transport of hazardous materials

Human urge of exploiting earth resources has resulted into unprecedented industrial development in the last century resulting into production of large quantities of hazardous chemicals. Chemical, petrochemical, nuclear, biomedical and pharmaceutical industrial accidents release large quantities of hazardous chemicals into the atmosphere. The accidental discharge during production or storage or transportation have subjected the population to be exposed to exceptionally high concentration levels of hazardous chemicals, taking them by surprise, unprepared with fatal consequences. An emergency planning organization has to be trained to combat this situation in the shortest possible time to minimize the number of causalities. The present paper focuses on computation of dispersion model, using emission source, accident location and online metrological data near to the sources, to provide necessary and accurate results swiftly. The predicted ground level concentrations with the hazardous nature of the chemical, speed and direction of plume, the emergency team will be supplied with all the information in graphical easy to grasp form, superimposed over a GIS map or the latest satellite image of the area.

The emergency team has to be trained for all past scenarios and their preparedness, response and actions must be practiced regularly to be able to abate chemical releases accidentally or intentionally.

Accidental releases of chlorine and ammonia gases in residential and industrial areas are simulated. The predicted ground level concentrations in the effected areas are shown after different time intervals. For low vapor pressure chemical, the dispersion time is large and concentration levels are low but persist for prolonged time while for volatile chemical, the concentrations are high in short time and recovering to safe environment is quick.     

Land Resource Sustainability for Urban Development: Spatial Decision Support System Prototype

Land resource sustainability for urban development characterizes the problem of decision-making with multiplicity and uncertainty. A decision support system prototype aids in the assessment of incremental land development plan proposals put forth within the long-term community priority of a sustainable growth. Facilitating this assessment is the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multicriteria evaluation and decision support system. The decision support system incorporates multiple sustainability criteria, weighted strategically responsive to local public policy priorities and community–specific situations and values, while gauging and directing desirable future courses of development. Furthermore, the decision support system uses a GIS, which facilitates an assessment of urban form with multiple indicators of sustainability as spatial criteria thematically. The resultant land-use sustainability scores indicate, on the ratio-scale of AHP, whether or not a desirable urban form is likely in the long run, and if so, to what degree. The two alternative modes of synthesis in AHP—ideal and distributive—provide assessments of a land development plan incrementally (short-term) and city-wide pattern comprehensively (long-term), respectively. Thus, the spatial decision support system facilitates proactive and collective public policy determination of land resource for future sustainable urban development.     

WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND DROUGHT FORECASTS IN SOUTH CAROLINA1

ABSTRACT: Despite potential benefits for resource planning, community water systems managers have not used seasonal climate forecasts extensively. Obstacles to forecast use include a lack of awareness of their existence, distrust of their accuracy, perceived irrelevance to management decisions, and competition from other technological innovations. In this paper, ways in which seasonal forecasts might be extended to address more directly some concerns of South Carolina community water systems managers are explored. From May 1998 through August 2002, this group experienced drought conditions that threatened water quality and supply and required restrictions on water consumption. Methods for incorporating long lead forecasts with joint probabilities of monthly temperature and precipitation to produce drought forecasts are demonstrated. When tailored to specific places, such forecasts show the likelihood of exceeding drought thresholds that would trigger water use restrictions. The methods illustrate how long lead forecasts can be extended and customized into secondary products that address issues of greater relevance to water resource managers.     

SCREENING THE RELOCATION STRATEGIES OF WATER QUALITY MONITORING STATIONS BY COMPROMISE PROGRAMMING1

Water quality monitoring network designs historically have tended to use experience, intuition, and subjective judgment in siting monitoring stations only sporadically. Better design procedures for optimizing monitoring systems with respect to multiple criteria decision analysis had rarely been put into practice up front when the needs for intensive monitoring became critical. This paper describes a systematic relocation strategy that is organized to identify several significant planning objectives and consider a series of inherent constraints simultaneously. The planning objectives considered in this analysis are designed to enhance the detection possibility for lower compliance areas, reflect the emphasis for different attainable water uses at different locations, promote the potential detection for the lower degradation areas of pollutants, increase the protection degree of those areas with higher population density in the proximity of the river system, and strengthen the pre‐warning capability of water quality for water intakes. The constraint set contains the limitations of budget, the equity implication, and the detection sensitivity in the water environment. A case study in the Kao‐Ping River Basin, South Taiwan, demonstrates the application potential of this methodology based on a seamless integration between the optimization and the simulation models. It enables identification of the optimal locational pattern stepwise using the embedded screening and sequencing capacity in a compromise programming model. However, a well calibrated and verified water quality model is an indispensable tool in support of this multiobjective evaluation. Extra sampling procedures become necessary for the sites with sparse environmental information. Comparison of planning outcomes of compromise programming is made against previously achieved analyses by using weighted programming and fuzzy programming.     

煤巷锚杆支护结构的可靠性分析

根据煤巷围岩力学参数中有许多随机变量的特征 ,笔者应用工程结构可靠性理论 ,提出并建立了煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性分析模型 ,得到了其可靠度的计算公式 ,提出了提高支护结构可靠度的措施 ,为优化煤巷锚杆支护参数提供了一种新方法。这些研究成果对指导煤巷支护设计 ,减少支护失效事故 ,保证矿井正常安全生产具有重要的意义。