The liquid fuel safety issues on fuel storage, transportation and processing have gained most attention because of the high fire risk. In this paper, some 0# diesel pool fire experiments with different diameters (0.2–1 m) were conducted with initial fuel thicknesses of 2 cm and 4 cm, respectively, to obtain liquid fuel combustion characteristics. Some key parameters including mass burning rate, flame height and the flame radiative heat flux, associated with fire risk, were investigated and determined. Subsequently, a detail quantitative risk assessment framework for 0# diesel pool fire is proposed based on the 0# diesel burning characteristics. In the framework, the probability of personal dead and the facility failure are calculated by the vulnerability models, respectively. In the end, 10 special tank fire scenarios were selected to show the whole risk calculation process. The tank diameter and the distance to pool fires were paid more attention in the cases. The safety distances in the cases are provided for the persons and nearby facilities, respectively. The paper enriches the basic experimental data and the provided framework is useful to the management of 0# diesel tank areas. 相似文献
Objective: Currently, in Turkey, fault rates in traffic accidents are determined according to the initiative of accident experts (no speed analyses of vehicles just considering accident type) and there are no specific quantitative instructions on fault rates related to procession of accidents which just represents the type of collision (side impact, head to head, rear end, etc.) in No. 2918 Turkish Highway Traffic Act (THTA 1983). The aim of this study is to introduce a scientific and systematic approach for determination of fault rates in most frequent property damage–only (PDO) traffic accidents in Turkey.
Methods: In this study, data (police reports, skid marks, deformation, crush depth, etc.) collected from the most frequent and controversial accident types (4 sample vehicle–vehicle scenarios) that consist of PDO were inserted into a reconstruction software called vCrash. Sample real-world scenarios were simulated on the software to generate different vehicle deformations that also correspond to energy-equivalent speed data just before the crash. These values were used to train a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (MFANN), function fitting neural network (FITNET, a specialized version of MFANN), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models within 10-fold cross-validation to predict fault rates without using software. The performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models was evaluated using mean square error (MSE) and multiple correlation coefficient (R).
Results: It was shown that the MFANN model performed better for predicting fault rates (i.e., lower MSE and higher R) than FITNET and GRNN models for accident scenarios 1, 2, and 3, whereas FITNET performed the best for scenario 4. The FITNET model showed the second best results for prediction for the first 3 scenarios. Because there is no training phase in GRNN, the GRNN model produced results much faster than MFANN and FITNET models. However, the GRNN model had the worst prediction results. The R values for prediction of fault rates were close to 1 for all folds and scenarios.
Conclusions: This study focuses on exhibiting new aspects and scientific approaches for determining fault rates of involvement in most frequent PDO accidents occurring in Turkey by discussing some deficiencies in THTA and without regard to initiative and/or experience of experts. This study yields judicious decisions to be made especially on forensic investigations and events involving insurance companies. Referring to this approach, injury/fatal and/or pedestrian-related accidents may be analyzed as future work by developing new scientific models. 相似文献
