Mapping cumulative impacts of mining on sediment retention ecosystem service in an Australian mining region

Mining development can potentially lead to cumulative impacts on ecosystems and their services across a range of scales. Site-specific environmental impact assessments are commonly assessed for mining projects; however, large-scale cumulative impacts of multiple mines that aggregate and interact in resources regions have had little attention in the literature and there are few examples where regional-scale mining impacts have been assessed on ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to quantify regional-scale cumulative impacts of mining on sediment retention ecosystem services. We apply the sediment delivery ratio model of Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs to calculate and map the sediment retention and export using a synthetic catchment model and a real case study under different mining scenarios in an Australian mining region. Two impact indices were created to quantify the cumulative impacts associated with a single mine and the interactions between multiple mines. The indices clarified the magnitude of impacts and the positive/negative impacts associated with regional-scale sediment retention and export. We found cumulative impacts associated with multiple mines’ interaction occurred but the influence of these interactions was relatively weak. This research demonstrated the potential for utilising ecosystem services modelling for the quantitative assessment of the cumulative impacts. Such research provide decision-makers and planners with a tool for sustainable regional and landscape planning that balances the needs of mining and the provision of ecosystem services.     

Transitions to sustainability in small islands: combining foresight scenarios with multi-criteria analysis to develop viable sustainability strategies in an EOR

Islands face similar challenges for sustainability as continental areas, but their geographic situation conditions their options for development. However, thanks to their clear geographic boundaries, they are an opportunity to think about sustainability in an integrated way. The objective of the study was to explore from a local (island) and regional (archipelago) perspective strategies for sustainability. ‘Participative foresight scenario mapping’ (PFSM) methodology was used to explore the sustainable future of a small island (Flores Island, Azores, Portugal). The need to acknowledge the limit to growth is a key finding of this article. But the research also allowed us to analyse in depth specific strategies that can be applied to different sectors of activity, the most important being to: improve the quality of local products, diversify the economy and increase self-sufficiency. PFSM succeeded in identifying key themes and facilitating debate around these subjects. These findings can inform sustainable development in other islands or territories sharing similar geographic characteristics.     

基于演化博弈的危化品安全监管情景推演研究

针对危化品安全生产监管问题,基于演化博弈理论构建危化品安全监管演化博弈模型,并将危化品事故发生率引入模型,对比分析危化品企业与地方政府监管部门行为策略的演化稳定均衡。在此基础上进行情景推演模拟仿真,研究表明:危化品事故发生率,对危化品企业和地方政府监管部门的策略选择有显著影响,当危化品事故发生概率低于某一临界值时,危化品企业和监管部门都会疏忽安全投入和监管;地方政府承受危化品事故经济损失和信誉损失增大时,危化品安全监管系统演化呈现出周期性波动;引入上级政府惩罚机制情景下,当上级政府惩罚力度高于危化品企业未投入安全生产受到的处罚和地方政府安全监管成本时,其最终都选择安全投入和严格监管策略。研究结论为政府监管危化品安全生产提供新的思路和对策建议。     

区域环境健康问题调查的实施机制

环境健康调查实施机制的合理性直接决定了大型区域环境健康调查的执行效率和最终结果.鉴于区域环境健康问题调查涉及内容多学科、执行流程多环节、实施过程有交叉的复杂特点,围绕环境健康传导链特征解析的调查实质,就如何高效组织区域环境健康调查的参与人员和技术力量等实施机制问题进行了探索.在总结我国大型环境健康调查工作实施经验的基础上,提出所有环境健康问题调查人员分属作用分明的“四大功能”角色定位,以及区域环境健康问题调查的“九步运行”技术流程等相关论断.相关研究结果直接支持了若干大型环境与健康调查工作,为进一步丰富区域环境健康问题调查理论提供了借鉴.     

基于利益相关群体的碳减排策略与潜力分析——以苏州市为例

本研究基于苏州市低碳试点工作实施方案,识别了苏州市重点减排领域,采用国家温室气体排放清单,估算了苏州"十二五"(2011—2015)期间碳排放量,并利用情景分析法预测了2016—2025年基准情景和综合减排情景碳排放趋势,分析了各重点排放领域减排贡献率。在此基础上,将减排策略按照自愿、监管、自愿与监管相结合的方式分别从不同利益相关群体进行梳理,分析不同群体减排潜力。结果表明:(1) 2015年,苏州市碳排放量约为2.35亿吨,2011—2015年,重点排放领域为工业能源消耗、建筑、交通、电力行业。(2)采用综合减排方案能在2020年左右达到峰值,之后缓慢下降,但交通部门碳排放仍有一定增加。(3)碳减排策略由多个利益相关群体共同作用产生减排贡献。对苏州市低碳试点方案的分析表明,当地政策制定者的减排贡献最高,其后是基础设施建设者和运营者,最后是基础设施使用者。     

A Method for Improving the Management of Controversial Wetland

Valley bottom wetlands in agricultural landscapes often are neglected in national and regional wetland inventories. Although these areas are small, located in the bottomlands of the headwater catchments, and scattered in the rural landscape, they strongly influence hydrology, water quality, and biodiversity over the whole catchment area. Valley bottom wetlands often are considered as controversial wetlands. Awareness of the functional role of wetlands is increasing, in parallel with their progressive disappearance in intensive farming landscapes. The need to improve tools for controlling wetland management is a primary consideration for decision makers and land users. This article proposes a method for the inventory of valley bottom wetlands. The method is based on the functional analysis of potential, existing, and efficient valley bottom wetlands (the PEEW approach). Several indicators are proposed for checking the validity of such an approach. Potential wetlands are delineated by means of a topographic index using topographic and pedoclimatic criteria computed from a Digital Elevation Model and easily accessible databases. Existing wetlands are identified from observed surface moisture, the presence of specific wetland vegetation, or soil feature criteria. Efficient wetlands are defined through a given function, such as flow or pollutant regulation or biodiversity control. An analysis of areas at the limits between potential, existing, and efficient wetlands highlights land cultivated or drained in the past, which currently represents negotiating areas in which rehabilitation and other intended management actions can be implemented.     

Optimization of gas detector placement considering scenario probability and detector reliability in oil refinery installation

Gas detection system is a critical layer of protection in process safety. Leak scenario probability and detector reliability are two key factors in the optimization of gas detector placement. However, they are easily neglected in previous studies, which may lead to an inaccurate evaluation of the optimization solutions. In this study, a stochastic programming (SP) optimization method is proposed considering these two factors. In order to quantitatively represent the probability of leak scenarios, a complete accident scenario set (CASS) is built combining leak sources and wind fields. Then, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method is adopted for consequence modeling of gas dispersion. The Markov model is developed to predict the detector reliability. With the objective of minimal cumulative detection time (MCDT), the SP formulation considering scenario probability and detector reliability (MCDT-SPR) is proposed. By introducing the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, the optimization formulations can be solved. A case study is investigated on a diesel hydrogenation refining unit. Results validate this approach is promising to improve the detection efficiency. This method is more practical and matching with the actual industrial environment, where the leak scenarios and the detector reliability can change dynamically in real process setting.     

NEWS

Abstract

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO₂ emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence (tce) and CO₂ emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tce that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO₂ emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors.     

GIS和情景分析辅助的流域水污染控制规划

总结了流域水污染控制规划中的正向算法和反向算法及其优缺点.以江西赣江流域为例, 以ARCGIS8.1为平台,建立了流域水环境功能区划、污染源、监测断面和排污口等空间数据库. 基于正向算法,利用情景分析法构造了流域水污染控制的4种情景,并在4种情景下生成了对污染源实行逐级控制的10组规划方案. 利用费用函数对各方案的污水处理投资进行估算;结合污染源预测,利用水质模型对各方案进行水质模拟,并将模拟的结果通过GIS的可视化表达来进行辅助决策. 以水质达标和投资费用作为规划方案的决策依据,通过赣江流域水污染治理的经济可承受能力的分析,优选出2套经济上能承受、水质上可接受的流域水污染控制方案.结果表明,GIS和情景分析法对于流域水污染控制规划在综合性、完整性和可持续性等方面具有良好的指导意义.