我国PM2.5浓度分阶段改善目标情景分析

分析了部分发达国家、地区PM_(2. 5)改善经验和我国74个重点城市2013～2016年PM_(2. 5)年均浓度的改善情况,得出不同浓度区间城市所能达到的PM_(2. 5)年均浓度降幅,并据此设计了我国城市PM_(2. 5)浓度改善情景,通过自下而上的计算方法,测算了全国城市、31个省(区、市)及重点区域的PM_(2. 5)浓度分阶段改善目标.结果表明,在2种情景下我国PM_(2. 5)年均浓度均将在2025年前实现达标,在2030年下降到30μg·m~(-3)以下;京津冀及周边地区在2030年实现达标;长三角地区在2025年达标,2030年区域内城市实现全面达标.北京、天津、河北、河南等省(市)基准年PM_(2. 5)年均浓度高,在2030年实现达标的压力较大;在重点区域强化情景下,京津冀及周边地区2030年仍有接近40%的城市PM_(2. 5)浓度超标,应持续加大重污染地区PM_(2. 5)污染防治工作的力度,以推进PM_(2. 5)浓度目标的实现.     

基于不同减排情景的印染行业许可排放量核定方法探究—以江苏南通市为例

针对我国排污许可制度中许可排放量限值合理确定的需求,以南通市88家间排印染企业为研究对象,采用传统的排放绩效核算方法和基准线设定方法,对印染企业进行基于实际排放水平的排放绩效确定;同时,从假设定量的角度确定印染企业强、中、弱3种减排情景的许可限值,并预测了3种减排情景下化学需氧量（COD_Cr）、氨氮（NH₃-N）、总氮（TN）、总磷（TP）的减排量。结果表明：1）88家印染企业COD_Cr、NH₃-N、TN、TP实际排放量占许可排放量比例平均值最大不超过34.46%,印染企业主要水污染物许可排放量有较大核减潜力;2）88家印染企业4种污染物由分位值法得到的95%分位值和99%分位值与由正态分布分析法得到的P95和P99对应绩效相当;3）对比分析分位值法、正态分布分析法所得基准线及88家印染企业实际排放平均绩效、标准绩效发现,对于4种污染物,至少有71.59%企业的实际排放绩效在平均绩效之下,17.05%企业的实际排放绩效在平均绩效与95%分位基准线之间,2.33%企业的实际排放绩效在95%分位基准线与标准绩效之间;4）基于弱、中、强3种减排情景的4种污染物预计减排比例分别为2.08%~5.99%、11.73%~20.05%和23.24%~36.04%。

     

山东省水泥行业CO_2减排关键技术的实施分析

由于社会对水泥需求的不断增长,多年来山东省水泥工业一直处于快速发展时期。作为国民经济的基础工业同时也是高耗能行业,山东省水泥行业面临着巨大的CO2减排压力。同时,技术自身的先进性决定了其相应的减排潜力,而减排效果的实现程度则取决于技术的推广度。在技术的推广过程中,其减排潜力、减排成本以及相关的政策支持都是关键性的影响因素,针对技术实施障碍进行深入的分析和探讨对实际减排效果的预测具有重要的意义。本研究利用长期能源替代规划系统软件建立了LEAP-Shandong Cement模型,对山东省水泥行业的CO2排放量及相应的减排潜力进行了模拟评估。到2020年,相对于基准情景,政策情景和技术情景下的减排潜力分别为8.2%和15.6%。山东省水泥行业实现减排主要依靠窑型的替代和相应技术的进步,其中余热发电技术改进为近期的重点减排技术,在水泥行业减排兼具显著的环境、经济和社会效益。     

中国民航业中长期碳排放预测与技术减排潜力分析

基于LEAP构建自下而上的中国民航业能源系统模型,设置冻结、现有政策、力度、替代和革命五组情景,深入分析民航业的驱动因子和发展趋势,探讨中国民航业中长期低碳发展的技术路径.结果显示,预计2060年左右人均乘机次数翻两番,突破2人次,冻结情景下2060年会带来高达6.9亿t的碳排放.力度情景下,民航业碳排放有望在2044年左右达峰,峰值水平控制在3亿t左右,40年累积减排近50%,仅需增加约1万亿人民币的成本.稳步推进机队更新换代,加快基础设施提升和运营操作改进,发展可持续航空燃料是民航业必须依赖的减排手段,分别能带来44.1%、29.5%和26.4%的减排量.因此,民航业要尽早制定行业"双碳"目标和实施路径计划,中短期统筹推进空域改革、空中交通管理和航司精细化管理,大力支持国产大飞机的发展,长期推动可持续航空燃料全产业链商业化和市场化.     

Generic scenario for the impact of cooling lubricants into the hydrosphere

According to directive 93/67/EEC of the European Commission, this paper deals with the generic exposition evaluation of the environmental concentration of cooling Lubricant chemicals from the metal working industry into the hydrosphere. After considering the relevant life-cycle steps and the selection of a representative point source for the 'reasonable worst case', the emission per day Elocal(water) is determined. It leads to the predicted environmental concentration (PEClocal(water)) for the local stage in the compartment water. In order to gain the PEClocal(water) for an example--a corrosion inhibitor as additive in a cooling lubricant--, the relevant emission paths and the corresponding representative point source are described for the reasonable worst case. For non-water-miscible cooling lubricants, none of the operations in the life cycle leads to a release into the compartment water. To evaluate the hazard potential for cooling lubricant chemicals, the complete risk assessment has to be done. Also, the assessment has to be done for all high production volume chemicals, new substances and existing hazard chemicals. This means that even industrial categories like chemicals used in the textile industry or biocides and others have to be evaluated.     

中国生物质燃气产能及碳减排潜力

基于回归分析预测模型和来源分类预测模型对2020~2050年生物质燃气产量和能源结构占比进行预测,并对碳减排潜力进行了情景分析.结果表明,回归分析预测偏差较小,其中逐步回归预测偏差值为9.34%,略小于多元线性回归的13.99%.来源分类模型的准确度高于回归模型.到2050年,沼气增幅约为176%.在低碳情景中提高生物质燃气应用比例最高可降低未来情景中10%的碳排放量,表明大力发展生物质燃气对于碳减排和碳循环有较为明显的正面效应.结合现状对经济,技术,市场等方面提出政策建议.为下一步发掘生物质燃气产品市场潜力提供理论指导.     

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

In the coming years India faces greatchallenges in energy and environment. Thepath of development chosen by India, uponwhich lies the future growth of energy andemission trajectories, would be greatlyinfluenced by technological developmentsboth within and outside the country,economic cooperation between countries, andglobal cooperation in limiting greenhousegas emissions. This paper discusses theintegrated modeling system used fordeveloping and analyzing the long-termtrajectories and presents results for thescenarios developed. In the context ofongoing market reforms two scenarios –accelerated and decelerated reforms – aredeveloped depicting fast and slow progressin energy sector reforms compared toexpectations in the baseline scenario.Accelerated market reforms would spurimprovements in technological efficiencies.Reforms would lower investment risks inIndia, thereby stimulating increased levelsof foreign direct investment. On the otherhand in decelerated reform scenarioeconomic growth is lower than that in thebase case, there is low access to capital,and technological improvements lag behindthose in the base case. In another scenariowe assume specific policy interventions forpenetration of renewable technologies overthe baseline scenario, for promotion andaccelerated deployment of renewable energytechnologies over and above the baselineassumptions. A scenario with carbon(c) constraints has also been developed and theresults discussed.     

中国土地生产力变化的情景分析

中国土地生产力变化态势是当前国内外学术界、决策界关注的焦点问题之一.介绍了土地生产力估算系统(ESLP)的原理与功能模块并利用该系统研究了中国土地生产力的变化态势.ESLP是在气温、降水、辐射水平、土壤质地等自然因素控制下,受土地利用方向与强度影响的,考虑土地系统不同的投入水平和管理措施的区域土地生产力估算系统.ESLP关注土地生产力变化的时空动态,能表达出不同投入管理水平下土地生产力的时空变化.文章应用ESLP研究了1988年和2000年中国土地生产力变化及其空间分异特征,将估算结果与1988年和2000年全国分县粮食产量数据的比较与验证表明,基于ESLP估算的各县土地生产力与各县粮食总产量具有很高的相关性,在一定程度上反映一个区域的粮食生产能力.在此基础上,应用ESLP预测了2010与2020年在气候变化情景下土地生产力的变化,预测结果显示,虽然局部地区土地生产力有小幅减少趋势,但从全国来看,土地生产力增长趋势明显.平均来看,2010年比2000年增长4.4%,而到2020年,土地生产力的增长幅度达到10.7%.不过在各个农业生态分区上,不同年份土地生产力变化差异较大,在2010年和2020年长江中下游区土地生产力均呈一定幅度的下降,而甘新区和西藏区只在2010年土地生产力有小幅下降.该研究结论对我国编制土地利用规划与粮食生产方面的决策具有重要的参考价值.     

REDD+ comes with money,not with development: an analysis of post-pilot project scenarios from the community forestry of Nepal Himalaya

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) attracts poor nations to keep their forest standing only to sequester carbon through monetary incentives. However, in countries like Nepal where forest is an integral part of social practices, communities need to keep using forests for making a living. Based on household survey, field interview, personal observation, and broad review of forestry legislations, this paper scrutinizes villagers’ experiences of changes in forest management after implementation of a REDD+ pilot project in nine Community Forestry Users Groups (CFUGs) of Nepal. Since REDD+ was not initiated by local communities but tacitly implemented by international NGOs, most villagers lacked knowledge about it and the associated benefits from the pilot project, thus fewer villagers were found to be motivated to participate in the pilot project. Consequently, it delinked villagers from their forest by implicitly tightening uses rules, which resulted in constraints to fetch forest products. In addition, REDD+ benefits were distributed to some poor households but not to all, which resulted to an antagonistic sentiment in the villages. Thus, a rigorous assessment of conditions and framework of REDD+ and an involvement of local community from the start without compromising in the uses of forest products is of the utmost importance before considering the REDD+ framework as an alternative or as similar to CFUG in Nepal. Alternatively, REDD+ can be a part or a development project under the CFUG’s framework, which could be socially as well as legally acceptable on the present situation.     

美国应急预案体系建设经验借鉴研究

介绍了美国应急体制、机制、法制和应急预案建设情况,针对我国应急预案体系建设进入新阶段的发展需求,总结归纳了美国应急预案管理以应急准备为核心的认识理念,以情景构建为基础的顶层设计,以标准规范为支撑的技术基础,以循环改进为理论的管理模式,以统一管理为体制的组织保障等5个方面的经验启示,结合我国国情进行了对比分析,提出了相应的政策建议。