城市交通规划环境影响评价的特点和案例研究

探讨了城市交通规划环境影响评价的特点和要点，包括评价目标、范围、指标体系、技术工作程序与方法，并以《上海城市交通白皮书》的空气环境影响评价作为案例阐述其特点并运用幕景分析法，预测评价了白皮书对上海今后空气环境的影响，提出了纾缓影响的措施。     

旅游城市环境规划优化方法与应用研究(Ⅱ)昆明旅游圈环境规划优化

将IFMOPOMTCE该模型应用于昆明市旅游圈旅游环境规划优化的实例当中，取得了较为成功的效果，并采用情景分析和交互式调整的方法制定出两种方案。通过比较分析确定出适合昆明旅游业持续发展的最优发展方案，为决策者提供了科学的决策依据，从而证明了该模型的实用性和可操作性。     

Detection and delineation of critical areas using echelons and spatial scan statistics with synoptic cellular data

Geographical surveillance for hotspot detection and delineation has become an important area of investigation both in geospatial ecosystem health and in geospatial public health. In order to find critical areas based on synoptic cellular data, geospatial ecosystem health investigations apply recently discovered echelon tools. In order to find elevated rate areas based on synoptic cellular data, geospatial public health investigations apply recently discovered spatial scan statistic tools. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize a joint role for these together in the spirit of a cross-disciplinary cross-fertilization to accomplish more effective and efficient geographical surveillance for hotspot detection and delineation, and early warning system.     

剩余污泥与餐厨垃圾协同厌氧发酵实现电能需求导向的沼气供应情景分析与仿真研究

探讨了将德国电能需求导向沼气供应模式应用于中国污水厂的剩余污泥和餐厨垃圾协同厌氧发酵系统,以实现根据污水厂电能需求即时调控沼气输出,从而提高沼气利用效率的目的.首先综述了电能需求导向的沼气供应模式在国内外的研究进展,在此基础上提出了一种新型的电能需求导向沼气供应模式实现情景,并利用系统动力学模型模拟了沼气生产及发电系统在此情景下的运行,通过系统的净现值作为观测指标与传统的实现情景进行对比以验证其经济性优势.最后,选取我国某污水厂为典型案例验证了本研究所提出模型,并总结了本研究的不足,为进一步研究奠定了基础.     

情景构建理论沿革及其对我国应急管理工作的启示

20世纪70年代,情景构建作为一种风险管理工具进入民防和应急管理实践者的视野,并逐步成为西方发达国家开展应急准备的核心策略,德国、英国、丹麦、荷兰等国家的风险评估规范均对情景构建这种方法给予了标准化要求。作为风险分析和应急准备工作的重要支撑策略,情景构建对我国当下的应急管理工作具有重要意义。首先,情景构建可以推进我国相关主体开展扎实的风险分析和风险沟通工作;其次,情景构建为相关主体提供了一种基于“风险”驱动的应急能力建设路径;最后,情景构建为当下改革阶段的应急管理机制建设提供了一种策略和方法。     

情景分析法预测西安市大气污染物排放总量

情景分析法是通过对经济、技术的重大演变提出各种关键假设,对可能的未来情景加以描述,并分析情景对目标产生影响的预测方法。文章以西安市为例,运用情景分析法分析了2020年3种不同情景下的大气污染物排放量。结果显示:3种情景下SO2、NOx的排放量依次减小,情景二和情景三模式下的SO2排放量均低于基准年,但3种情景下的NOx排放量均高于基准年。     

Variability in Three Finnish Integrated Acidification Models

Integrated assessment models have been used to support ofnegotiations for further emission reductions of acidifyingcompounds in Europe. More attention is being paid to theuncertainties in integrated models. Data from three Finnishintegrated acidification models were compiled to estimate thevariation and relative importance of different modules. Themodels included site-specific and regional dynamic simulationsand steady-state critical load calculations for forest soilsand lakes. The main emphasis was on the variability ofemissions and the uncertainties in ecosystem effects. Althoughmaximum technically feasible emission reduction measures cantheoretically result in very low deposition, the variabilitybetween realistic scenarios is rather restricted. Thevariability of deposition loading is largely determined byreductions in nearby emission sources. The dynamicsimulations, which are often based on detailed input data,seem to retain larger variability than steady-state criticalload approaches. This study suggests that the uncertainties ineffects seem to be larger generally than other modules ofintegrated acidification models. The results indicate the needfor further work on uncertainty analysis for integrated modelsand the availability of useful model systems for furtherconfirmation of ecosystem effects.     

Classification of Ephemeral,Intermittent, and Perennial Stream Reaches Using a TOPMODEL‐Based Approach

Whether a waterway is temporary or permanent influences regulatory protection guidelines, however, classification can be subjective due to a combination of factors, including time of year, antecedent moisture conditions, and previous experience of the field investigator. Our objective was to develop a standardized protocol using publically available spatial information to classify ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial streams. Our hypothesis was that field observations of flow along the stream channel could be compared to results from a hydrologic model, providing an objective method of how these stream reaches can be identified. Flow‐state sensors were placed at ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial stream reaches from May to December 2011 in the Appalachian coal basin of eastern Kentucky. This observed flow record was then used to calibrate the simulated saturation deficit in each channel reach based on the topographic wetness index used by TOPMODEL. Saturation deficit values were categorized as flow or no‐flow days, and the simulated record of streamflow was compared to the observed record. The hydrologic model was more accurate for simulating flow during the spring and fall seasons. However, the model effectively identified stream reaches as intermittent and perennial in each of the two basins.     

郑州市碳排放量现状与预测分析研究

郑州市是中原经济区核心城市,无论是在经济社会发展还是低碳节能方面都有示范效应,碳排放强度的有效下降对于城市减排具有重要的借鉴意义.通过系统测算2005年-2012年郑州市碳源排放量及碳汇吸收量,分析碳排放量、人均碳排放量及碳排放强度等现状,然后运用IPAT模型,对郑州市碳排放强度进行情景分析和预测.结果表明,郑州市有较大减排潜力,应在满足减排要求前提下,实现经济与环境的可持续发展.     

基于GD_CGE模型的广东省碳排放权交易政策评估

为了评估广东省碳排放权交易制度设计对控制二氧化碳排放及经济发展可能发挥的作用,本文建立GD_CGE模型研究了在碳强度约束目标下碳交易政策的实施效果.首先分析了无减排约束和有减排约束情景下广东宏观经济(GDP)、能源消费总量和碳排放总量的发展趋势;进一步扩展减排约束情景,考察了在全省碳强度减排目标约束下,把电力、水泥、石化、钢铁、造纸、纺织六大部门纳入碳交易体系,并分别按照历史法和潜力法确定行业碳排放约束上限时,实施碳交易政策对宏观经济和能源消费量的影响,模拟了碳市场的交易情况和碳价格.结果表明:在碳强度目标控制下,实施碳交易政策可显著降低部门的减排成本,减小控制碳排放可能对全省GDP的影响,起到了促进广东省低成本节能减排的作用.