地铁火灾场景设计的初步研究

现阶段地铁火灾研究的主要工具是计算机模拟,而模拟计算结果准确与否很大程度上取决于火灾场景选取得是否恰当.本文通过对地铁站内的可燃物状况和已发生地铁火灾情况的仔细调查与分析,设定出了几种典型的地铁火灾场景,为地铁火灾模拟计算提供了依据.     

Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic,scenario-based decision support for sustainable development

Researchers have increasingly acknowledged the relative strength of ‘hybrid’ approaches to scenario analysis for exploring the futures of coupled human-nature systems. In this paper, we explain, demonstrate, and provisionally evaluate the usefulness of a simple analytical framework, based on five categories of capital assets, as part of a protocol for overcoming the conversion problem in hybrid scenario analysis. Based on a preliminary application of the framework to a case study in South Africa, we suggest that the five capitals framework has the potential to improve expedience and counter the bias against ‘soft’ drivers in hybrid approaches to scenario analysis. However, in light of the methodological trade-off between rigour and expedience, we suggest that future research needs to compare the available protocols for hybrid scenario analysis by weighing up the relative gain in scenario quality versus the relative cost of scenario construction.     

MAPPING HYDROLOGIC UNITS FOR THE NATIONAL WATERSHED BOUNDARY DATASET1

ABSTRACT: In 2002, Wyoming became the first state to complete development of a statewide 1:24,000‐scale Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD) under the new Federal Standards for Delineation of Hydrologic Unit Boundaries. The product was developed through the coordinated efforts of numerous state, federal, and local entities both within Wyoming and in neighboring states. Development of a comprehensive, standardized hydrologic unit boundary dataset in a “headwaters” state such as Wyoming poses a number of unique challenges. This paper details the WBD's development in Wyoming, highlighting technical methodology development and interagency coordination strategies. Evolution of the WBD standard is reviewed, addressing inconsistencies between definitions for hydro‐logic units and “true” watershed delineations. While automated methods are improving, manual and semi‐automated techniques continue to serve as valuable approaches to hydrologic unit boundary delineation given the quality of digital terrain models and the multijurisdictional nature of watershed based management. This case study provides insight on future development and maintenance of the WBD within and across other states and regions of the country and on opportunities for linking the WBD to related water resource geospatial data products like the National Hydrography Dataset.     

A participatory decision making framework for artisanal fisheries collaborative governance: Insights from management committees in Chile

Fisheries management is increasingly transitioning towards collaborative governance. Collaborative systems depend on stakeholders’ capacity to design and implement legitimate and scientifically robust management plans within collective action arenas. Here we propose that collaborative governance outcomes, in fisheries management, will benefit from using structured participatory decision making frameworks that enhance deliberative thinking among stakeholders. We tested our approach in the artisanal fishery of Chile, an important producer of marine resources. Recently in 2013, Chile made important changes to fisheries policies by creating multi-sectorial management committees to manage de facto open access fishing areas. We applied a structured decision making framework to inform the restructuring of a management plan within a committee. As a result, we identified goals,objectives and indicators, including social, economic, biological and ecological dimensions; we explored tradeoffs, assessing the relative importance of the objectives; finally, we created scenarios and prioritized alternatives, reflecting on the interplay between self-regulation and government control. Members of the management committee were able to rationalize the different steps of the framework and identify ways forward which highlighted the importance of self-regulation in comparison to central authorities’ control. We concluded that structured decision making promotes spaces for rational analysis of alternatives costs and benefits. Promoting deliberative thinking in fisheries management can improve equity, legitimacy and sustainability of collaborative governance.     

The Area Production Model: a tool and concept for sustainable land-use and forest-resource management

In developing countries, planning in the forestry sector has been seen as an appropriate instrument to prepare and implement government policies and programs. Despite its potential and recent advancements in, for example, remote sensing and infrastructure, tropical forest land-use planning is often formal and non-integrated with agriculture. It rarely involves all legitimate stakeholders and neglects taking into account actual land-use. The socio-economic and environmental consequences of these shortcomings emphasise the need for alternative ways of approaching planning. This article summarises the idea, structure and current status of the Area Production Model (APM), originally developed in the 1980s, which is now gaining interest as a land-use planning tool in Africa and Asia. It describes the development over time of production and consumption in agriculture and forestry within a defined geographical area operating under different assumptions on management, land use and socio-economic and macro-economic changes. From a narrow perspective, the APM is a fairly simple computerised tool for generating scenarios. In a broad sense, it is a concept comprising the whole planning process including organisation, inventory, data analysis, consensus building and strategy. A case-study in Laos, based on verified data for a historical period of 45 years, and a review of different APM applications in the world over the last 15 years are presented as a base for conclusions about its potential and shortcomings. In some cases where the APM concept was used in training courses and planning exercises involving stakeholders, it generated a strong interest in collecting and analysing relevant information. It provides the means of addressing a number of shortcomings in current planning.     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的石化装置火灾事故动态风险分析

为揭示石油炼化装置事故风险动态特性和事故情景演变路径,在对石化装置进行风险因素分析的基础上构建石化装置火灾事故故障树,基于贝叶斯网络非常规突发事故的演变过程,构建情景演变下的动态贝叶斯网络模型,在综合考虑应急措施的基础上,利用MATLAB软件和联合概率公式计算出各种事故场景的状态概率.以丙烯精馏装置火灾事故为例,结果表...     

基于健康风险的危险废物智能化分级分类研究

在分析国内外危险废物分级管理经验的基础上,结合健康风险的评估步骤,提出了基于全过程危险废物污染物释放情景的精细化-动态健康风险评价方法。充分考虑处理利用工艺、企业管理水平等因素对于危险废物中污染物释放概率和能力的影响,并基于污染物向环境介质的迁移转化,定量评估危险废物的健康风险。基于危险废物污染特性数据库和事故情景数据库,结合全过程信息采集技术,构建危险废物分级分类管理平台,进行涉废企业的风险级别划分,实施差异化管理,形成更加科学有效的危险废物全过程精细化管理体系。     

黄河中游砒砂岩地区长川流域土壤侵蚀情景分析

根据已有研究成果和相关资料,采用情景分析(scenario analysis)法,评价黄河中游砒砂岩地区长川流域实施不同水土保持和退耕还林(草)措施对土壤侵蚀的影响.结果表明:水土保持生物措施和工程措施减少土壤侵蚀的效益显著,相对而言,退耕还林(草)对流域总体土壤侵蚀影响不大.水土保持和退耕还林(草)的组合情景方案对土壤侵蚀影响较大,部分组合情景的土壤侵蚀甚至可低于土壤侵蚀背景值.可见,水土保持措施结合退耕还林(草)可以控制和减少研究区土壤侵蚀.在今后水土流失综合治理过程中,应首推生物和工程措施辅以退耕还林(草)措施.     

环境规划中情景分析方法及应用研究

确定环境规划中情景分析的步骤和方法主要包括:对象和焦点问题及关键决策识别,核心要素识别,驱动因子列举,驱动因子重要性和不确定性排序,核心情景驱动选择和情景勾画,情景的丰富和应用.以邛海流域的环境规划为案例进行分析,设计了2005-2015年的4种情景,并利用系统动力学模型(SD)和不确定性模糊多目标模型(IFMOP)对情景进行了定量描述和分析.结果显示,邛海的环境污染压力正在增大,污染源治理和生态工程是需要优先考虑的项目,但所需的投资巨大,对地方财政造成很大压力,需要寻求新的投资途径并加强环境管制.      

城市污水处理设施建设和运营资金缺口分析

运用FEASIBLE模型选择四川省14个位于三峡库区影响地带的市/县数据进行城市污水处理设施建设和运营资金的供需缺口分析.结果表明:在基线融资情况下,若投资没有显著提高,14个市/县将无法实现城市污水处理基础设施发展目标;排污收集系统的建设将由于资金匮乏落后于污水处理厂的建设;资金来源过度依赖公共预算,会受到其他社会服务对公共预算需求的限制和影响;使用者付费仅能支付污水处理设施运行和维护费用的40%.并针对基线情境下的分析提出改革对策.