基于不同电力需求的中国减污降碳协同增效路径

当前我国同时面临改善生态环境质量和实现碳达峰碳中和两大战略任务,协同推进减污降碳已成为我国经济社会发展全面绿色转型的必然选择,电力部门在转型过程中将发挥重要作用.面向不同的电力需求情景,构建低成本实现碳达峰、碳中和的多目标模型,求解得出减污降碳协同增效最优路径方案.结果表明,在如期实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的前提下,减污和降碳协同性较好,两者协同控制可高效助力低碳转型的实现;优化电力部门发电结构是实现减污降碳协同增效的关键措施,研究期火电占比不断下降,清洁电力占比超过92.5%;不同电力需求下二氧化碳和主要大气污染物排放量有明显差异,其中二氧化碳排放量受电力需求影响最大,低电力需求、中等电力需求和高电力需求情景下峰值二氧化碳排放量分别为94.16亿、 104.09亿和107.46亿t,主要污染物二氧化硫、氮氧化物和颗粒物的排放同样表现出在低电力需求、中等电力需求和高电力需求情景下依次递增的趋势.电力需求的提高仅增加了电力部门内部发电结构调整的压力,未影响到其他部门的产量和活动水平,即电力需求导致的电力部门减排压力未表现出部门间传递的趋势.     

Global Warming and Global Dioxide Emission: An Empirical Study

In this paper, the dynamic relationship between global surface temperature (global warming) and global carbon dioxide emission (CO₂) is modelled and analyzed by causality and spectral analysis in the time domain and frequency domain, respectively. Historical data of global CO₂emission and global surface temperature anomalies over 129 years from 1860–1988 are used in this study. The causal relationship between the two phenomena is first examined using the Sim and Granger causality test in the time domain after the data series are filtered by ARIMA models. The Granger causal relationship is further scrutinized and confirmed by cross-spectral and multichannel spectral analysis in the frequency domain. The evidence found from both analyses proves that there is a positive causal relationship between the two variables. The time domain analysis suggests that Granger causality exists between global surface temperature and global CO₂emission. Further, CO₂emission causes the change in temperature. The conclusions are further confirmed by the frequency domain analysis, which indicates that the increase in CO₂emission causes climate warming because a high coherence exists between the two variables. Furthermore, it is proved that climate changes happen after an increase in CO₂emission, which confirms that the increase in CO₂emission does cause global warming.     

RATIONAL INDUSTRIAL WATER REUSE RATIOS1

ABSTRACT: This work begins by defining rational water use, and then discusses important factors that most strongly influence it. A general model is then developed to enable factories to quantify the ratio of rational industrial water reuse based on the least cost method. The model is established to minimize the cost of water with reference to gross water use and three subsystems ‐ the intake, reuse, and discharge of industrial water. Discharge cost is determined using data from a 1997 survey of 38 factories, and reuse costs are ranked and expressed by a step function. The model is verified using data from a typical semiconductor factory in northern Taiwan's Hsinchu Science Based Industrial Park, whose effective rational water reuse ratio is about 38 percent. A sensitivity analysis shows that improving water reuse technology is the most important factor in determining the rational water reuse ratio, and the price of water is the second most important. When water costs over NT$30 (New Taiwan Dollar, US$1 = NT$34) per cubic meter, increasing reuse becomes significant. The model provides a step towards the scientific management of industrial water.     

动态膜压法测定江、污混合水体中有机物含量的探讨

用双驱动动态膜压仪测定江、污混合水中有机物含量。通过测定白龙港污水和长江水混合后的膜压和滞回环面积，用它们与相应的经典法CODCr作图，获得了滞回环面积和CODCr之间良好地线性关系，表明用动态膜压法可快速测定混合水中的有机物含量，不须加任何试剂，不会产生二次污染。同时，对实验结果进行了初步的机理探讨。     

A “RATIONAL” POLICY FOR THE ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CRISES1

ABSTRACT: The present energy and environmental crises are due to increasing per capita demands as well as increasing populations. The role that traditional pricing policies have played in promoting these demands is discussed. The reduction or stabilizing of per capita demands is advocated through the use of Conservational Pricing mechanisms which charge higher average prices for high consumption. An example of the effect of Conservational Pricing in the water supply industry is given.     

跨世纪时期的世界矿产资源形势和我国的对策

本文研究分析了世界资源、尤其是矿产资源的供需形势,以及全球资源紧张与危机的状况和发展趋势。结合我国资源状况和国情,从经济、社会长期发展战略角度,论述了客观分析、参与研究国际及我国社会基础资源问题的重要性、紧迫性,并提出建立我国资源供需持续、稳定、协调发展的方略对策。     

ESTIMATION OF DAILY TEMPERATURE MEANS USING ELEVATION AND LATITUDE IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN1

ABSTRACT A model was developed for predicting mean daily, mean daily minimum, and mean daily maximum temperatures in West Virginia. The model is easily used since the only inputs are elevation, latitude, and julian date. With local calibration, the model is expected to apply to other areas in the Appalachian region.     

PEAK PERIOD DESIGN STANDARDS FOR SMALL WESTERN U.S. WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: In order to determine design capacities for various components of municipal and rural domestic water supply systems, engineers must estimate water requirements for an entire year (water rights), for the peak season (reservoir storage), for the peak day (pump or treatment plant size), and for peak hour (pipeline sizes). Historically, per capita water use rates have varied greatly between systems, particularly in semiarid regions where outdoor demands are large. The resulting uncertainty in design capacity estimates can cause either inadequate capacities or premature investment. In order to minimize that uncertainty multiple regression and frequency analyses were made of the various water demand parameters mentioned above for 14 systems in Utah and Colorado. Specifically, demand functions are reported for average month, peak month, and peak day. Peak hour demands were also studied but are reported in a different paper. The independent variables which were significant for monthly and daily demands were price of water and an outdoor use index which includes the effect of variation in landscaped area and accounts for use of supplementary ditch or pressure irrigation systems. The demand functions were developed with data from systems varying in size from very small low density rural systems to Salt Lake City's water system. The correlation coefficients (R²) vary from 0.80 to 0.95.     

Gravity model formulation for an extensive National Parkway Site

The purpose of this study was to collect specific information on the characteristics and intensity of local Blue Ridge Parkway use and to use that information to develop a recreation use model of local Parkway visitation. Data were obtained from a self-administered mail-back questionnaire sent to a random sample of people living in the 29 counties adjacent to the Parkway.We developed two recreation use projection/demand models that employ three variables (distance, alternative recreation sites, and population density) to predict visitation to different Parkway areas from various local origins. The derived model estimates indicated that about one-fourth of all Parkway visits in 1978 were one-day visits made by area residents.     

EFFECTS OF ADVANCED WASTEWATER TREATMENT ON THE QUALITY OF WHITE RIVER,INDIANA1

ABSTRACT: In 1983, the City of Indianapolis, Indiana, completed construction of advanced wastewater treatment (AWT) systems to enlarge and upgrade its existing Belmont Road and South port Road secondary treatment plants. A nonparametric statistical procedure, a modified form of the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank-sum test, was used to test for trends in water quality at two upstream and two downstream sites on White River and at the two treatment plants. Results comparing the pre- (1978–1980) and post- (1983–1986) AWT periods show statistically significant improvements in the quality of the treated effluent and of the White River downstream from the plants. Water quality at sites upstream from the city was relatively constant during the period of study. Total ammonia (as N) decreased 14.6 mg/L and BOD₅ (five-day biochemical oxygen demand) decreased 10 to 19 mg/L in the two effluents. Total ammonia in the river downstream from the plants decreased 0.8 to 1.9 mg/L and BOD₅ decreased 2.3 to 2.5 mg/L. Nitrate (as N) increased 14.5 mg/L in the plant effluents and 2.0 to 2.4 mg/L in the river because of in-plant nitrification. Dissolved oxygen concentration in the river increased about 3 mg/L because of reduced oxygen demand for nitrification and biochemical oxidation processes.