黑河流域生态环境的脆弱性及其对地下水的依赖性

本文通过翔实的素材阐述了河西走廊黑河流域生态环境的脆弱性及其对地下水环境的依赖性,根据野外实地考察实料揭月了适合西北生态脆弱区的地下水可持续利用模式,并指出了生态环境保护与水资源利用协调发展的国土安全意义.     

Numerical Prediction of Dispersion Characteristics in an Urban Area Based on Grid Refinement and Various Turbulence Models

A detailed simulation of the Goettinger Strasse pollutantdispersion problem is performed using the CFD code CFX-TASCflow for different wind directions. Two turbulencemodels, the k- and the RSM are adopted on three gridrefinement levels. Besides the typical reference gridimplemented by the TRAPOS group, two different gridresolutions are introduced. The first refinement is in thewhole street canyon region on the x-y level, while thesecond one is local in all three directions. Validation ofall involved computational schemes is performed based onrelative available experimental data. The computed velocityfields and concentration contours imply that the typicalreference grid is a suitable choice for the velocityfields, while local grid refinement in all three directionsin a small region containing the receptor is required toupgrade the pollutant concentration results with modestadditional computational effort. Finally the RSM modelresulted in smaller concentration levels. The k-model compared to the RSM seems a more appropriate choiceto solve this particular problem.     

资源型城市可持续发展对碳排放的影响研究——基于资源依赖的视角

基于2003~2018年285个地级市的面板数据,首先使用双重差分模型考察《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划(2013~2020年)》(以下简称《规划》)对碳排放的影响;其次,探究该政策通过资源依赖这一路径对碳排放的影响效果;进一步地,基于城市区域和城市规模两个视角分析该政策通过资源依赖影响碳排放的异质性效果;最后,探究《规划》的空间溢出效应.结果表明《规划》显著地降低了资源型城市的碳排放;机制分析表明,《规划》能够通过降低资源依赖进而减少碳排放,且产业结构升级和技术进步对《规划》的碳减排效应起到了正向调节作用;异质性分析表明,《规划》通过降低资源依赖进而促降碳排放的效果在东､中部地区以及大城市更为明显;《规划》对本地及周边地区均具有显著的碳减排效应.本研究对于在双碳目标下实现中国资源型城市的可持续发展具有重要的政策启示.     

Where Sustainable Transport and Social Exclusion Meet: Households Without Cars and Car Dependence in Great Britain

Abstract

A secondary analysis of the British National Travel Survey for the years 2002–2010 shows that the composition of the group of carless households is a good indicator of the level of car dependence in a local area: indeed, while non-car ownership in peripheral and rural areas very often correspond to a marginal socio-demographic situation, this is less and less true as one moves towards larger urban areas. Similarly, while in sparse areas most households without cars are either virtually immobile or reliant on car lifts, in large urban areas the ‘mobility gap’ between car-owning and carless households is considerably smaller, as the latter are able to use modal alternatives to the car. These findings are interpreted with reference to an integrated theoretical framework, showing how changes in land use and the environmental and social impacts of increasing motorization are intimately linked. Notably, the consequences of the self-reinforcing cycle of car dependence on two forms of car-related transport disadvantage (car deprivation and forced car ownership) are highlighted. Overall, the article highlights how the socio-demographic composition and the travel behaviour of carless households vary systematically across different types of area: this has interesting implications for sustainable transport policy and research.     

Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

Flame propagation in lycopodium/air mixtures below atmospheric pressure

Industrial processes are often operated at conditions deviating from atmospheric conditions. Safety relevant parameters normally used for hazard evaluation and classification of combustible dusts are only valid within a very narrow range of pressure, temperature and gas composition. The development of dust explosions and flame propagation under reduced pressure conditions is poorly investigated. Standard laboratory equipment like the 20 l Siwek chamber does not allow investigations at very low pressures. Therefore an experimental device was developed for the investigations on flame propagation and ignition under reduced pressure conditions. Flame propagation was analysed by a video analysis system the actual flame speed was measured by optical sensors. Experiments were carried out with lycopodium at dust concentrations of 100 g/m³, 200 g/m³ and 300 g/m³. It was found that both flame shapes and flame speeds were quite different from those obtained at atmospheric pressure. Effects like buoyancy of hot gases during ignition and flame propagation are less strong than at atmospheric conditions. For the investigated dust concentrations the flame reaches speeds that are nearly an order of a magnitude higher than at ambient conditions.     

A test of the producer-scrounger foraging game in captive flocks of spice finches,Loncbura punctulata

Group foraging allows the co-existence of a strategy (producer) that involves searching for food, and its alternative (scrounger) exploiting the food of the producer. The use of producer and scrounger strategies has been modelled as an alternative-option scramble which assumes strong negative frequency-dependence of the scrounger's pay-offs. We tested this assumption in a flock feeding situation by manipulating the proportion of scroungers in flocks of spice finches, Lonchura punctulata. In a first experiment we found that: (1) the food intake of scroungers, and to a lesser extent producers, was negatively affected by an increase in the proportion of scroungers; (2) the food intake of producers and scroungers was equal when the proportion of scroungers was small, suggesting that producers, who exploited 35.4% of their patches by scrounging were opportunistically adjusting their use of the strategies until the pay-offs equalized. In a second experiment we tested whether finches could vary their use of the two strategies in response to changes in foraging conditions brought about by an increase in the cost of producing. As predicted by the game, finches reduced their use of the producer strategy and increased their use of the scrounger strategy when the cost of producing increased. These results suggest that spice finches can alter their allocation to each foraging alternative by experience and that the producer-scrounger game is a realistic model for predicting group foraging decisions. Correspondence to: L.-A. Giraldeau     

Diet quality affects an attractive white plumage pattern in dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis)

Sexually selected traits that act as signals of quality often display some degree of condition dependence. In birds, condition dependence of ornamental plumage is often mediated by production costs related to acquisition or allocation of dietary resources. White plumage ornaments, however, have often been assumed to be inexpensive because their production requires neither pigment nor specialized feather structure. In male dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis), the size of a white patch on the tail contributes to attractiveness and mating success. Using captive males, we examined the effects of diet quality on the size and brightness of the tail-white patch. After removing four tail feathers to induce replacement, we maintained subjects on a subsistence (low-protein) or enriched (high-protein) diet while induced feathers grew. Birds that received an enriched diet grew their feathers more quickly and grew larger, brighter white patches. Feather growth rate was positively correlated with the increase in the size of the tail-white patch, a relationship that was stronger in the subsistence diet group. However, within diet treatments, faster-grown feathers were slightly duller. Taken together, these results suggest that variation in diet quality may lead to condition-dependent expression of tail white and that condition dependence may be stronger in more stressful environments. We suggest a mechanism by which increased feather growth rate may lead to an increase in the size of the tail-white patch and discuss potential trade-offs between signal size and brightness.     

Cave molly females (Poecilia mexicana, Poeciliidae, Teleostei) like well-fed males

We examined the preference of Atlantic molly females (Poecilia mexicana) to associate with a well-fed or a starved male in simultaneous choice tests. Females from three different populations were tested in three treatments: (1) the females could choose on the basis of multiple cues from the males (visual plus non-visual); (2) only non-visual cues could be perceived in darkness, (3) only visual cues were presented. The three tested populations differ clearly in their ecology: one population occurs in a typical river habitat, the second one in a milky sulfur creek outside a cave, and the third population occurs in a cave habitat (cave molly). In the river-dwelling population, females never showed a preference. In the population from the sulfur creek, females preferred to associate with the well-nourished male when visual cues from the males were available. Only cave molly females exhibited a strong preference for well-nourished males in all treatments. A morphological comparison demonstrated that wild-caught males from river habitats are typically in a good nutritional state. In the sulfur creek, males showed signs of starvation. Cave molly males were in an even worse nutritional state. In the cave population, saturated males probably indicate high fitness, thereby driving the evolution of the preference for good male nutritional state.Communicated by K. Lindström     

Climate change,risk management and the end of Nomadic pastoralism

Mobility has been argued to be the single factor explaining why some pastoralists do relatively well during extreme climatic events, while others do not, because mobility works by taking advantage of the spatial and temporal structure of resource failure by moving away from scarcity towards abundance. In spite of this, a common governmental management strategy is to resettle pastoral populations and thereby significantly reduce mobility. By revealing the underlying logic of mobility for Tibetan pastoralists, this paper questions official policy that aims at privatizing communally owned rangelands since it reduces pastoral flexibility and access to key resources. This is especially pertinent in the face of climate change. While little is known as to the specifics of how climate change will affect nomadic pastoralists, environmental variability is likely to increase. Consequently, policies resulting in decreased mobility may exacerbate the negative effects of climate change because of a positive feedback between climate and negative density dependence.