Double Allee Effects and Extinction in the Island Fox

Abstract:  An Allee effect (AE) occurs in populations when individuals suffer a decrease in fitness at low densities. If a fitness component is reduced (component AE), per capita population growth rates may decline as a consequence (demographic AE) and extinction risk is increased. The island fox ( Urocyon littoralis ) is endemic to six of the eight California Channel Islands. Population crashes have coincided with an increase in predation by Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). We propose that AEs could render fox populations more sensitive and may be a likely explanation for their sharp decline. We analyzed demographic data collected between 1988 and 2000 to test whether fox density (1) influences survival and reproductive rates; (2) interacts with eagle presence and affects fox fitness parameters; and (3) influences per capita fox population trends. A double component AE simultaneously influenced survival (of adults and pups) and proportion of breeding adult females. The adult survival AE was driven by predation by eagles. These component AEs led to a demographic AE. Multiple-component AEs, a predation-driven AE, and the simultaneous occurrence of both component and demographic AEs in a mammal are all previously unreported processes. Populations below 7 foxes/km² could have suboptimal population growth rates due to the demographic AE, and AEs may have contributed to the dramatic declines in three fox populations. Because fox densities in critically endangered populations are well below this level, removing Golden Eagles appears necessary to prevent a predation-driven AE. Conservationists should also be aware of AEs when planning the release of captive foxes. More generally, our findings highlight the danger of overlooking AEs in the conservation of populations of rare or threatened species.     

Diffusion mechanism of chloride ions in sodium montmorillonite

For safety assessment of geological disposal of HLW, it is necessary to understand the diffusion mechanism of radionuclides in compacted bentonite. In this study, the diffusion behavior of chloride ions in compacted montmorillonite was studied from the viewpoints of the activation energy for apparent diffusion and the basal spacing of the compacted montmorillonite. A unique change in the activation energy as a function of the dry density of the montmorillonite was found. The activation energy decreased from 17.4 to 13.5 kJ mol-1 as the dry density increased from 0.7 to 1.0 Mg m-3 and increased to 25.1 kJ mol-1 at dry densities above 1.0 Mg m-3. The basal spacing of 1.88 nm, corresponding to the three-water layer hydrate state, was not observed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) until the dry density increased to 1.0 Mg m-3, where the minimum activation energy was obtained. On the other hand, a basal spacing of 1.56 nm, corresponding to the two-water layer hydrate state, was observed at the dry densities of 1.4 Mg m-3 and above, where the activation energies were more than 22 kJ mol-1. These experimental results suggest that there are at least two additional diffusion processes that can raise or reduce the activation energy and are affected by water in the region adjacent to the montmorillonite surfaces. If the "Grahame model" can be introduced to describe the electrical double layer, surface diffusion will be considered the possible predominant diffusion process, even for anions like chloride ions.     

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas     

Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico

Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.     

Methyl chloride emissions from halophyte leaf litter: dependence on temperature and chloride content

Methyl chloride (CH₃Cl) is the most abundant natural chlorine containing compound in the atmosphere, and responsible for a significant fraction of stratospheric ozone destruction. Understanding the global CH₃Cl budget is therefore of great importance. However, the strength of the individual sources and sinks is still uncertain. Leaf litter is a potentially important source of methyl chloride, but factors controlling the emissions are unclear. This study investigated CH₃Cl emissions from leaf litter of twelve halophyte species. The emissions were not due to biological activity, and emission rates varied between halophyte species up to two orders of magnitude. For all species, the CH₃Cl emission rates increased with temperature following the Arrhenius relation. Activation energies were similar for all investigated plant species, indicating that even though emissions vary largely between plant species, their response to changing temperatures is similar. The chloride and methoxyl group contents of the leaf litter samples were determined, but those parameters were not significantly correlated to the CH₃Cl emission rate.     

Community livelihood and its dependence on nature resources under pressure of conservation

Conflict between conservation and community livelihood is a significant issue in China.Based on Sustainable Livelihood Framework(SLA),this study systematically analyzed livelihoods assets of a community in a Yunnan snub-nosed monkey conservation area and found that the livelihood pentagon of the community was shaped by multiple but frail and unstable income sources,abundant natural resources with restricted use right,underutilized labors,inadequate financial resources,inconvenient physical capital and weak social capital.Villagers'income heavily depended on forest,and grazing and nontimber forest products(NTFP)collection are common and major income sources for villagers.However,differentiation of income dependence on forest among villagers'groups showed that there is no close correlation between the level of income and the level of income dependence on forest.Households'daily life also heavily depended on the forest due to heating and pig-feed cooking;hence,fuelwood cannot be easily replaced by any other energy resource for a long period.     

Study on the Regional Distribution of Energy Efficiency from the Point of Pollutant Emissions

In this paper,the author uses super-efficiency DEA model to measure the national and regional energy efficiency in China;using spatial econometric model and from the perspective of geo-spatial spillover,the author interprets the spatial characteristics of energy efficiency and extracts the main factors that influence the regional energy efficiency.The analysis results show that:(1) the national and regional energy efficiency is consistent with inverted U-shaped curve,and the nationwide energy efficiency gap is increasing;(2) energy efficiency has the obvious effect of the spatial external effect,and when the government makes energy saving strategies,inter-regional energy cooperation and the proliferation of advanced production technology should be given more priority;(3) energy efficiency has significant negative correlation with government intervention,industrial structure,ownership structure,the energy consumption structure,and resource endowments,and has positive correlation with the degree of opening-up and energy price.     

Temperature dependence of gas-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and organochlorine pesticide concentrations in Chicago air

The temperature dependence of gas-phase atmospheric concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and organochlorine pesticides measured in Chicago, IL between June and October 1995 were investigated using plots of the natural logarithm of partial pressures (ln P) vs. reciprocal mean temperatures (1/T). For the eight lowest molecular weight PAHs, temperature dependence was statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) and temperature accounted for 23–49% of the variability in gas-phase concentrations. The relatively higher slopes for most of the PAHs suggested that volatilization from local sources and short-range transport influenced their concentrations. For pesticides, temperature dependence was statistically significant for DDD and for trans-nonachlor (at the 95% and 90% confidence levels), and was not statistically significant for the other five compounds (2–18% of the variability in their gas-phase concentrations). The relatively lower slopes for individual pesticides suggested that they have mostly non-urban and distant sources.Results of back trajectory analyses suggested that the region, southwest of Chicago, might be an important local or regional source sector for PAHs and organochlorine pesticides. No statistically significant relationship was observed between wind speed and PAH or pesticide concentrations. None of the variables (temperature, wind speed, wind direction, local and regional sources) could fully explain the variation in their concentrations measured in Chicago, therefore, this variation can be attributed to the combined effect of those factors.     

Impact assessment of a hydroelectric project on the flora in the Western Himalayan region based on vegetation analysis and socio-economic studies

This study provides an overview of the impacts of a proposed hydroelectric power project in the Western Himalayan region in India, using a primary database on floristic diversity and vegetation analysis. The remote sensing data revealed that in the submergence zone only mixed deciduous forest that occupies 807.5 ha area and has a wood biomass volume of 4,027,503 m³ is likely to be lost due to impoundment. A total of 165 plant species found in the submergence zone also occur in the influence and free draining catchment area of the project. In the influence zone of the project area only one tree species (Acer oblongum) is found under conservation threat category, which is also present in the free draining catchment of the project. The project affected population (6716 people) residing in the submergence and influence zone depend upon the surrounding forests for fuel wood, fodder, wild edibles etc., and most likely they will settle in the nearby areas, thus mounting more pressure on residual forests of the influence zone for various forest products. Further, from the vegetation analysis it is evident that several tree species (e.g. Lannea coromandelica, Terminalia alata, T. bellerica etc.), may face more pressure from exploitation as they provide a number of useful products and are represented in lower numbers in the forests of the project area. To compensate for the loss of various goods and services provided by the forests falling in the submergence zone and to offset the increased pressure of the project affected families on the forests of influence zone, a biodiversity management plan is suggested incorporating socio-economic considerations.     

CORRELATION OF ANNUAL PEAK FLOWS FOR PENNSYLVANIA STREAMS1

A common assumption in flood frequency analysis is that annual peak flows are independent events. This study was undertaken to investigate the validity of this assumption with regard to Pennsylvania streams by statistically analyzing the dependence between annual peak flows and to determine if basin carryover effects relate to the degree of dependence. Five tests of dependence, the autocorrelation test, the median crossing test, the turning points test, the rank difference test, and the Spearman rank order serial correlation coefficient test were applied to the series of annual peak flows for 57 streams. Of the 57 streams analyzed, only two exhibited signs of dependence by at least two of the tests performed, and the baseflow component of annual peak flows was found to be unrelated to the degree of dependence exhibited between annual peak flows. It was concluded that the assumption of independence of annual peak flows is valid in flood frequency analysis for Pennsylvania streams.