地方协调发展的政府财政保障分析——以三亚市实施全面建设小康社会战略为例

将全面建设小康社会置于实施可持续发展战略的大背景下研究政府财政特别是地方政府财政的保障作用,具有非常强的实践意义和理论意义.文章立足于全面建设小康社会监测指标体系,充分利用现行有关监测全面小康社会实现程度的测算结果,同时引入发展协调度的应用.在梳理政府财政与经济社会发展间的理论关系基础上,文章明确了地方政府财政保障经济社会发展中的协调作用.通过综合运用了加权平均、回归拟合、主成分分析等方法进行实证,不但验证了发展的协调能力与发展的综合能力的高度相关性,还验证了财政保障地方协调发展的有效性.亦即,地方政府财政通过发挥协调功能,可以以更快的速度促进全面小康社会的实现.在结合三亚实际进行分析的基础上提出了地方政府在实施全面建设小康社会的协调发展战略中应采取优化财政支出结构优先保障提供公共产品和服务,建立财政保障长效机制调整既有的利益格局等一系列有益的政策建议.     

中国西部矿产资源产业集聚度与竞争力研究

促进矿产资源产业集聚是推动我国西部矿产资源产业发展的主要路径之一,开展我国西部矿产资源产业集聚度与产业竞争力相关性的研究可以为西部矿产资源产业竞争力提升提供相关决策指导.为分析矿产资源产业集聚对矿产资源产业竞争力和区域经济的推动作用,本文选取区位熵反映矿产资源产业集聚度,具体地,选择企业数量区位熵反映矿产资源产业区域集聚度.选取产业产值区位熵反映矿产资源产业经济集聚度;矿产资源产业竞争力则选取产值利润率借以反映.通过衡量我国西部9个矿产资源产业的区域集聚度、经济集聚度和产值利润率,得出我国西部大部分矿产资源产业仍停留于企业"扎堆"的区域集聚,经济集聚不足,尤其是下游加工业,这导致我国西部矿产资源产业集聚效应难以充分发挥,产值利润率低下;进一步的相关性分析表明,西部矿产资源产业集聚度与产业竞争力正相关,且经济集聚对产业竞争力的推动作用更强.因而,不仅要发展下游加工业,而且要提高产业集聚度尤其是经济集聚度,以更有效地推动我国西部矿产资源产业竞争力的提升.     

三峡库区（重庆段）石漠化敏感性评价及空间分异特征

以石漠化敏感性机理为基础,运用GIS与RS技术分别分析了喀斯特岩性因子、地形因子、植被覆盖因子、土壤类型因子的空间格局特征及其对研究区石漠化敏感性的影响程度。在此基础上,基于ArcGIS的空间叠加分析,完成单要素的叠加运算,实现研究区石漠化敏感性的综合评价。探讨了三峡库区（重庆段）这一特殊生态地理区域石漠化敏感性的高低分布规律及其在不同主导因子作用下的石漠化的空间分异特征。结果表明：（1）研究区石漠化敏感区面积为17 376.5 km2（3765%）,以高度和极敏感类型为主。（2）空间分布具有明显水平地域差异特征,整体上呈现弧状 条带性分布。东北部和南部最为敏感,中西部基本为不敏感地区。（3）研究区石漠化现状与石漠化敏感性之间有着很好的对应关系,局部地区受人类不合理的干扰活动影响,石漠化现状与石漠化敏感性存在一定的差异     

福州市城区内河引闽冲污后水质变化趋势及防治对策

简述了福州市城区内河河网结构特点和河网水文特征,对1994年-2003年福州城区内河的水质变化趋势进行了分析和评价。结果表明,自1998年福州市全面开始内河引水冲污工程后,内河水质得到了改善,有机污染得到缓解,基本消除了水体的黑臭现象。指出了在内河整治中存在的一些问题。提出,应优化引水方案,最大限度发挥效益;明确河段的使用功能,发挥其潜能;开展生物防治,建立良性循环的水生生态系统,对内河实施综合管理。     

黄河中上游能源化工区大气污染跨界环境影响分析

对黄河中上游能源化工区近地面和边界层顶气象流场及该区域大气污染长距离输送产生的跨界环境影响趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明,该区域近地面和边界层顶的流场总体上为西北向东南流动,大气污染物长距离输送可能影响的区域主要为华中地区;区域冷空气的活动对其大气污染物的清除起重要作用;通过CALPUFF模型的模拟结果表明,该区域SO2的影响程度和范围明显大于NO2,在区域内部存在污染物浓度较高的区域,但未对区外造成显著跨界环境影响。     

A highly resolved temporal and spatial air pollutant emission inventory for the Pearl River Delta region, China and its uncertainty assessment

A highly resolved temporal and spatial Pearl River Delta (PRD) regional emission inventory for the year 2006 was developed with the use of best available domestic emission factors and activity data. The inventory covers major emission sources in the region and a bottom–up approach was adopted to compile the inventory for those sources where possible. The results show that the estimates for SO₂, NO_x, CO, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and VOC emissions in the PRD region for the year 2006 are 711.4 kt, 891.9 kt, 3840.6 kt, 418.4 kt, 204.6 kt, and 1180.1 kt, respectively. About 91.4% of SO₂ emissions were from power plant and industrial sources, and 87.2% of NO_x emissions were from power plant and mobile sources. The industrial, mobile and power plant sources are major contributors to PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 emissions, accounting for 97.7% of the total PM₁₀ and 97.2% of PM_2.5 emissions, respectively. Mobile, biogenic and VOC product-related sources are responsible for 90.5% of the total VOC emissions. The emissions are spatially allocated onto grid cells with a resolution of 3 km × 3 km, showing that anthropogenic air pollutant emissions are mainly distributed over PRD central-southern city cluster areas. The preliminary temporal profiles were established for the power plant, industrial and on-road mobile sources. There is relatively low uncertainty in SO₂ emission estimates with a range of −16% to +21% from power plant sources, medium to high uncertainty for the NO_x emissions, and high uncertainties in the VOC, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and CO emissions.     

Convergence or divergence in desertification risk? Scale-based assessment and policy implications in a Mediterranean country

This paper explores changes (1990–2000) in two environmental indexes with the aim of providing empirical evidence on regional and local convergence in an increasing-impact phenomenon such as Land Degradation (LD) in Italy. Convergence analysis for ESAI (Environmental Sensitive Area Index) and LVI (Land Vulnerability Index) was developed at five different geographical scales. Results indicate that territorial disparities in land vulnerability tend to increase during the investigated period following a defined spatial pattern that depends on land quality, the environmental context and the economic performance of regional systems. Finally, the implications this process has on policy strategies aimed at mitigating desertification risk are discussed.     

公众灾害风险可接受性与避灾意愿的初探——以川渝地区旱灾风险为例

在综述前人研究的基础上,以川渝地区旱灾为例,通过实地调查与访谈,从公众可接受的旱灾损失与频率、假定旱灾风险情景下的避险意愿等角度,对公众旱灾风险可接受性进行了初步探讨。结果表明,公众合理可接受的旱灾损失与频率分别在26.5%~52.8%与32.0%~64.3%区间范围内;并以一般旱灾、严重旱灾风险情景为限制线,确定了公众合理可接受风险区域;随着灾害损失风险增加,公众规避风险投资意愿呈现出中间高两头低的趋势,当灾害损失达到约50%~70%时,公众避险投资意愿达到最高,意愿避险投资占可能损失的比重约为62%。鉴于川渝地区的旱灾形势,今后旱灾风险管理的关键,一是加强对旱灾的监测与预警预报;二是完善旱灾风险的常规化管理,发展高效灌溉农业,充分利用客水资源,完善提高现有农田水网建设;三是积极探索公众-企业-政府多方共同参与的高效风险管理模式。     

贯通巷道风流流场数值模拟若干关键问题研究

根据计算流体力学基本理论,利用计算流体动力学(CFD)软件Fluent,运用三维k-ε湍流模型对贯通型巷道风流流场数值模拟中风流入口、出口位置对巷道风流流场分布的影响、湍动能k及湍动能耗散率ε的取值对模拟结果的影响等进行考察。通过研究确定模拟巷道的流体力学入口长度,确定模拟巷道出口位置;湍动能k及湍动能耗散率ε的取值对入口附近流动还没有充分发展区域拟解算的结果影响较大,而对流动充分发展的区域影响较小。将数值模拟风速值与理论计算风速值进行对比,模拟结果与计算结果非常一致,验证了数值模拟方法的正确性,为研究贯通型巷道风流传质过程、瓦斯运移规律及通风排污效率等提供了理论基础。     

CO2 emission driving forces and corresponding mitigation strategies under low-carbon economy mode: evidence from China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

On account of the background of China’s “new normal” characterized by slower economic growth, this paper analyses the low-carbon economy status quo in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and empirically investigates the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and its various factors for China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region using panel data econometric technique. We find evidence of existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. Results also show that economic scale, industrial structure, and urbanization rate are crucial factors to promote CO₂ emissions. However, technological progress, especially the domestic independent research and development, plays a key role in CO₂ emissions abatement. Next, we further analyze the correlation between each subregion and various factors according to Grey Relation Analysis. Thereby, our findings provide important implications for policymakers in air pollution control and CO₂ emissions reduction for this region.